This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

131547Z Apr 05

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 002516 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, DRL/IL AND INR/EUC 
AND EB 
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB 
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR ECON SOCI PINR
SUBJECT: KEY ISSUES IN FRANCE'S EU CONSTITUTION DEBATE 
 
REF: A. (A) PARIS 2205 
 
     ¶B. (B) PARIS 2006 
     ¶C. (C) PARIS 1998 
     ¶D. (D) PARIS 1649 
     ¶E. (E) PARIS 1106 
     ¶F. (F) PARIS 1014 
 
SUMMARY 
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¶1.  (SBU) The direction taken by France's debate on the 
proposed EU Constitution has left many observers perplexed: 
what, if anything, do unemployment and loss of purchasing 
power, Turkey's possible accession to the EU, public service 
unions unhappy with proposed reforms to 35 hour work week, 
and widespread dissatisfaction with France's governing 
institutions have to do with a decision about a proposed 
Constitutional treaty for Europe?  The debate over the 
Constitution has become a lightening rod for the electorate's 
discontent, and, for many voters, a plebiscite on Jacques 
Chirac's leadership.  What follows are capsule descriptions 
of some of the issues that the French are talking about in 
the context of the Constitutional vote.  END SUMMARY. 
 
LATEST POLLS 
------------ 
¶2.  (SBU) According to a poll released April 12, the 'no' 
vote continues to hold its lead among those who have decided 
how they will vote -- by a margin of 53 percent to 47 
percent.  Between a fourth and a third of likely voters 
remain undecided, although there have been at least thirteen 
successive major polls since mid-March showing that a 
majority of those who say they have made up their minds plan 
to vote 'no'.  When the 'no' overtook the 'yes' in the polls 
March 18, it energized the campaigns of each camp.  Since 
then, as the debate has widened into TV appearances by 
leading advocates of both camps, the main issues motivating 
voters are becoming clear. 
 
REFERENDUM AS PLEBISCITE ON CHIRAC 
------------------------------------- 
¶3.  (SBU) A number of constituencies -- for example, public 
sector employees in the transportation, health and education 
sectors, as well as some government research center academics 
and unionized workers in key ministries (including at the 
Foreign Ministry) -- militantly support voting 'no' because 
they are opposed to specific reforms proposed by the Raffarin 
government.  The nationwide general strike on March 10 
(reftel C), led by public sector unions revealed the range 
and variety of the constituencies opposed to specific reform 
proposals of the Raffarin government, and, beyond that, 
opposed to the economic liberalism and market mechanisms 
(timidly) implicit in these reforms.  Many of these voters 
and their sympathizers are also intent on "voting against" 
Jacques Chirac and the Raffarin government for partisan 
reasons.  Chirac now faces the real possibility that voters 
will take the opportunity of the referendum to answer an 
entirely different question -- whether the French people 
continue to have confidence in him.  (The historical 
precedent, De Gaulle's failed referendum in 1969 which led to 
his political demise weighs heavily on the French President.) 
 This evolution of the referendum into a plebiscite is 
getting additional impetus from a rising populist tide 
seeking to punish France's  inaccessible, inbred, political 
class no matter what temples are brought down in the process. 
 
THE "LIBERAL" VS. THE "SOCIAL" EUROPE AND FRANCE 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
¶4.  (SBU) Social and economic issues, particularly 
unemployment and loss of purchasing power, are principal 
preoccupations for some voters.  The debate over the proposed 
Constitution (reftel A) has so far focused both on what to do 
about domestic social and economic problems and disagreement 
about how the Constitution might constrict France's options 
in dealing with them.  This core disagreement over a 
"liberal" versus a "social" Europe and France catalyzed the 
French assault on the Bolkestein directive (reftel B).  NOTE: 
In French usage, a "liberal" society is characterized by 
individualism, relatively unregulated markets, largely 
private sector provision of social services, and low taxes; a 
"social" society is characterized by heavy regulation of 
markets and environment, state responsibility for health, 
education, etc. social services, and high taxes.)  END NOTE. 
The outcry in France over the Bolkestein directive reflected 
both opposition to its "liberal bias" and to its imposition 
by an ever more "foreign" Brussels.  "Social" opponents of 
the directive see it as epitomizing the proposed 
Constitution's "liberal bias."  Concerns about an 
increasingly "foreign," liberal Europe are also often 
associated with a retrospective questioning of the EU's 
enlargement, which has reduced its political cohesion and its 
potential as an international political heavyweight. 
 
WIDESPREAD 'NO' TO TURKEY 
------------------------- 
¶5.  (SBU) Considerable anti-Constitution sentiment among 
voters is dominated by association of the proposed 
Constitution with fear of uncontrolled Muslim immigration 
from Turkey and worries over the headlong expansion of 
Europe.  The issue of Turkey reflects France's continuing 
difficulties assimilating a large Muslim minority, widespread 
popular rejection of an expanded Europe, and popular 
resentment at not having been consulted about questions 
relating to the "European construction."  According to a poll 
of the motivation of 'no' voters released March 26, 31 
percent of those intending to vote 'no' say they plan do so 
primarily because they "are opposed to Turkey's entry into 
the EU." 
 
DISMAY AT GOVERNMENT INEFFECTIVENESS 
------------------------------------ 
¶6.  (SBU) Beyond dissatisfaction with current policies and 
partisan opposition to the current government, a deeper 
dismay at French institutions' inability to bring about 
reform and make progress solving France's problems is also 
fueling vote 'no' sentiment.  Cutting across the entire 
electorate, there is disappointment at long-standing 
government ineffectiveness -- unemployment, for example, has 
hovered at around 10 percent since well before President 
Chirac's last re-election in 2002 -- which has led many to 
give up hope that politicians and politics can solve the 
problems that ordinary people consider the most important 
ones.  May has traditionally been a month of political 
activism in France, prompting some 'yes' supporters to fear 
the worst: that diffuse but widespread unhappiness with the 
system as a whole could harden -- and be expressed as 'no' 
votes on May 29. 
 
THE U.S. AND THE REFERENDUM DEBATE 
---------------------------------- 
¶7.  (SBU) How the proposed Constitution would (or would not) 
in time make the EU an independent, political and military 
world power -- "equal to the U.S. and China" is the most 
common formulation -- comes up in the debate persistently but 
less prominently than had been expected.  Contrary to the 
expectations, of the PS in particular, calling on voters to 
support the proposed Constitution because it makes for a 
"strong Europe facing the United States" has so far met with 
little traction (reftels D, E and F).  If anything, the 'no' 
argument of both far-right "France First" sovereignist and 
far-left anti-Americans, that the proposed Constitution 
creates an "Atlanticist Europe dominated by the United 
States," has had a higher profile. 
 
FRANCE'S LEADERSHIP ROLE IN EUROPE 
---------------------------------- 
¶8.  (SBU) The effect on France's traditional leadership role 
in Europe, particularly damage to it should 'no' sentiment 
prevail, is becoming a key preoccupation of 'yes' voters. 
All pro-Constitution advocates, particularly President 
Chirac, Prime Minister Raffarin and their supporters in the 
press and parliament, stress that a 'no' victory May 29 would 
severely undermine France's traditional leadership role in 
Europe.  It remains to be seen if appeals to vote 'yes' to 
continue France's influence in shaping Europe will outweigh 
widespread sentiment that the new Constitution represents the 
opposite -- ratification of an enlarged and enlarging Europe 
over which France has less and less of a political grip. 
 
COMMENT 
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¶9. (SBU) France's debate over the proposed constitution has 
generated linkages for voters among very disparate questions 
-- with most having very little directly to do with the 
Constitution.  It has done so as the country's social and 
economic problems have become more acute, and national 
confidence that they can be solved has diminished.  We will 
elaborate further on these and other issues as the countdown 
continues towards Referendum Day, May 29.  END COMMENT. 
LEACH