This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TEGUCIGALPA 002766 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/PPC, WHA/USOAS, AND WHA/CEN 
STATE FOR EB, INL, INR/AN/IAA, AND INR/B 
STATE PASS USTR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ECON ETRD SNAR KJUS PINR HO
SUBJECT: HONDURAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: NATIONALS - 
PASTOR AND LOBO IMPRESSIVE; LIBERALS - ZELAYA CHARISMATIC, 
NUNEZ TECHNOCRATIC, AND ROSENTHAL PROBLEMATIC 
 
REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 2646 
 
     ¶B. TEGUCIGALPA 2635 
     ¶C. TEGUCIGALPA 1541 
 
¶1. (SBU) Introduction: During recent meetings with Washington 
visitor, National Party leading presidential candidates 
Miguel Pastor (first in polls) and Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo 
(second in polls) were impressive, Liberal Party leading 
presidential candidate Mel Zelaya was charismatic, while 
third place Liberal Party candidate Gabriela Nunez came off 
as more of a technocrat than a leading politician.  In a 
previous meeting with PolOffs, second place Liberal Party 
candidate Jaime Rosenthal played the part of the intelligent 
but questionably-connected businessman/politician.  End 
Introduction. 
 
¶2. (U) Director of the Office of Central American Affairs 
(WHA/CEN) David Lindwall and Honduras Desk Officer Marcos 
Mandojana visited Honduras November 30-December 3 and held 
meetings in Tegucigalpa with most of the top contenders for 
the National and Liberal Parties presidential nominations. 
PolOffs also held a previous meeting with second place 
Liberal Party candidate Jaime Rosenthal.  Primary elections 
are scheduled for February 20, 2005; the general election 
will take place November 27, 2005. 
 
Miguel Pastor 
------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Lindwall, Mandojana, DCM, PolCouns, and PolOff had 
breakfast December 3 with Mayor of Tegucigalpa Miguel Pastor, 
who is the leading National Party candidate.  Joining Pastor 
was his twin brother and campaign manager, Sebastian Pastor, 
and senior campaign official Nahun Valladares y Valladares. 
Pastor, who has been knocked for staying away from issues of 
substance, was impressive in the meeting.  He showed a strong 
grasp of key issues and had a confident and sophisticated 
presence, despite his youthful appearance.  He laid out a 
nuanced position on crime that included prevention as well as 
law enforcement, and stressed the importance of combating 
corruption.  He highlighted the importance of job creation 
and said he supported the U.S.-Central America Free Trade 
Agreement (CAFTA).  Pastor underlined the need for Millennium 
Challenge Account (MCA) assistance.  Pastor's team also 
stressed the need for election observers during the primary 
elections.  Lindwall noted that financial constraints argued 
against Organization of American States (OAS) observation of 
the party primaries in Honduras, and suggested the 
possibility of local NGOs and/or students working with the 
media, as had been done in Ecuador.  Sebastian closed the 
meeting with an audacious request: he asked Lindwall and 
Mandojana to consider the possibility of a state visit to the 
U.S. for Pastor after he becomes the next president, an 
outcome they fully expect to achieve. 
 
Pepe Lobo 
--------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Lindwall, Mandojana, and PolOff met December 1 with 
President of Congress Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo, who is running a 
close second in the National Party race.  Joining Lobo was 
the "whip" of the congress, Lobo's ally Juan Orlando 
Hernandez.  VP candidate and Ambassador to the U.S. Mario 
Canahuati was in San Pedro Sula and unable to attend the 
meeting.  Lobo summarized his campaign focus as jobs and 
security (his campaign slogan).  Corruption and the rule of 
law, including counternarcotics, were focal points of the 
meeting.  Lobo highlighted recent advances, including an 
independent Supreme Court, but acknowledged the Public 
Ministry needed to be overhauled.  Hernandez noted that high 
levels of crime undermined faith in democracy.  Lobo candidly 
said that there was a values problem in Honduran society 
reflected in a lack of respect for the law that was key to 
the crime problem.  Lobo also noted that poverty weakened 
faith in democracy.  Lobo and Lindwall discussed the 
importance of congressional approval of CAFTA.  Lobo noted 
that Catholic Church Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez and third place 
National Party candidate Gilbert Goldstein had both recently 
come out against CAFTA.  He avoided any promise of when 
congressional action on CAFTA would take place.  Lobo also 
highlighted tourism, the maquila sector, natural resources, 
and agriculture as key to economic growth.  Hernandez 
emphasized the importance of MCA funds to improve 
infrastructure that in turn would boost productivity and the 
ability of Honduran producers to compete.  Lobo mentioned 
that he had met WHA A/S Noriega at a recent meeting of Latin 
American congressional leaders.  Lobo, as usual, was in 
command of a wide range of issues.  He appeared confident 
about his electoral prospects, most likely boosted by his 
recent closing of the gap for the number one spot in polls 
for the National Party nomination. 
 
Mel Zelaya 
---------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Lindwall, Mandojana, DCM, PolCouns, and PolOff had 
lunch, hosted by the DCM, December 3 with leading Liberal 
Party candidate Mel Zelaya, VP candidate Elvin Santos, and 
senior campaign official Patricia Rodas.  Zelaya, a 
charismatic politician sometimes rapped for a lack of 
intellect and limited world view, was engaging and relaxed, 
joking that Honduras as David would beat the U.S. as Goliath 
in agricultural competition.  Zelaya said he supported CAFTA, 
stressed the importance of economic development, spoke in 
favor of the GOH receiving MCA funds, and denounced 
corruption.  Zelaya was more focused on substance than in 
past meetings with EmbOffs, but several times deferred to his 
colleagues to respond to questions, most notably declining to 
outline his goals for U.S.-Honduran bilateral relations. 
Rodas, who is reported to have a leftist past and is Zelaya's 
pick for leader of the party organization, launched a series 
of provocative questions, including asking about U.S. views 
on greater Central American contacts with China.  Santos, was 
candid and, as a newcomer to Zelaya's political team, seemed 
to not have discussed many political issues with Zelaya. 
There was tension between Santos and Rodas, which could 
presage difficulties for Zelaya's possible government and its 
relations with the private sector, for which Santos was 
chosen as VP to lead Zelaya's outreach efforts.  Zelaya was 
very confident that his place atop the polls is unshakable. 
He also demonstrated a managerial style that would delegate 
significant operational authority to subordinates while he 
focused on larger strategic communication issues. 
 
Gabriela Nunez 
-------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Lindwall, Mandojana, and PolOff had breakfast 
December 2 with Gabriela Nunez, who is in third place in the 
Liberal Party race.  She was accompanied by her VP candidate, 
Guillermo Alvarado, and her campaign manager, Max Gil Santos. 
 Nunez and her team emphasized that they were focused on 
economic development, not politics, and said they supported 
CAFTA, despite the fact that they believed GOH negotiators 
had overly focused on the maquila industry.  Nunez stressed 
the importance of election observers for the primary 
elections.  Nunez repeatedly deferred to her colleagues, 
something she has done in past meetings with EmbOffs. 
Unfortunately, that led to a tangential soliloquy by 
Alvarado, a former Minister of Agriculture who until recently 
worked for the Guatemalan agribusiness Gutierrez company, on 
sanitary/phytosanitary issues involved in the export of 
Central American chicken to the U.S.  Nunez's technical 
abilities may be strong, but she was the least engaging of 
all the top candidates and at her own peril ignores the need 
for successful politics to precede policy implementation. 
This campaign is clearly a dress rehearsal for a more serious 
run for the presidency in 2009. 
 
Jaime Rosenthal 
--------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) PolCouns and PolOff had lunch November 24 with 
Liberal Party candidate Jaime Rosenthal and Manuel Gamero, 
director of the Rosenthal-owned El Tiempo newspaper.  Gamero 
has been Rosenthal's recent go-between with the Embassy, due 
to Rosenthal's controversial status.  Rosenthal said he 
believes he can win despite Zelaya's overwhelming advantage 
in the polls, and indicated he would go negative on Zelaya as 
soon as the official campaign period began.  Rosenthal was 
dismissive of Zelaya's intellectual abilities, mused that 
neither Pastor nor Lobo would be that bad as president, and 
spoke without irony about the importance of combating 
corruption.  The bitterness of the upcoming primaries will 
determine which party is more united for the general 
election.  Rosenthal, as the only presidential candidate from 
San Pedro Sula, will play a key role in the general 
elections, regardless of his showing in the primaries. 
 
Pastor and Lobo Battling, Zelaya Out in Front 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment:  Post's assessment of the candidates' 
chances remains unchanged since our last analysis (ref A). 
There is clearly a much closer battle in the National Party 
than the Liberal Party.  Pastor's increased focus on issues 
should stand him well against Lobo, but this race will likely 
come down to the wire.  Pastor is running as a the leader of 
a new generation and is in command of the media aspects of 
politicking, while Lobo is for all intents and purposes the 
current administration's candidate, although they have not 
said so publicly or in private, and has the support of the 
traditional National Party machine.  With formal campaigning 
barred until January, it remains to be seen if candidates 
that project well in TV spots or small meetings can rouse 
support from the electorate at campaign events.  The 
unanimity of candidates' support for CAFTA was notable, as 
was the concern for corruption.  All the candidates also 
stressed the importance of the bilateral relationship, and 
made clear the U.S. is the key partner for Honduras.  End 
Comment. 
 
¶9. (U) This cable was cleared by Lindwall and Mandojana. 
Pierce