This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 001086 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR AF/S, INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR MI
SUBJECT: RULING PARTY REBELS RATCHET UP RHETORIC, BUT 
BINGU'S SUPPORT STAYS STEADY 
 
REF: LILONGWE 1035 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: Members of the United Democratic Front (UDF) 
have become more outspoken in their criticism of President 
Bingu wa Mutharika, widening the split in the party.  The UDF 
executive committee has punished ministers close to 
Mutharika, taking away party positions and perks.  Despite 
this very public dispute, President Mutharika's public 
support remains strong.  End summary. 
 
Getting Louder and Nastier 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) The split in Malawi's ruling United Democratic Front 
became more pronounced this week with the announcement by a 
national executive committee member, former minister and 
Muluzi loyalist Dumbo Lemani, of alleged fraud in the May 20 
election that brought President Mutharika to power.  Lemani 
claims to have information from UDF senior official Humphrey 
Mvula (who is currently in jail awaiting trial on murder and 
corruption charges) that Mvula arranged to have 362,000 votes 
diverted to the UDF in Mutharika's favor.  Lemani claims that 
Mvula is prepared to give the evidence in court, as testimony 
in an ongoing suit brought earlier this year by the 
opposition Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and Mgwirizano 
Coalition, which contested the election results.  (Note: A 
swing of just over 160,000 votes from Mutharika to MCP 
candidate John Tembo would give the Presidency to Tembo.  End 
note.) 
 
¶3. (U) The revelation follows several weeks of escalating 
rhetoric from pro-Muluzi UDF members who resent what they see 
as Mutharika's increasing independence from the party and 
lack of sufficient deference to Muluzi.  Much of their 
anxiety is caused by the arrest of former officials of 
Muluzi's government.  Muluzi loyalists have been loudly 
complaining in the media that the GOM is on a political 
witch-hunt.  Some have even asked the Malawi Human Rights 
Commission to investigate the government's tactics. 
 
¶4. (U) At the same time, the UDF executive committee has 
targeted several ministers who are know to be close to 
Mutharika, stripping them of their party positions and 
privileges.  These include Information Minister Ken Lipenga, 
Foreign Minister George Chaponda, Education Minister Yusuf 
Mwawa, Home Affairs Minister Uladi Mussa, and Gender Minister 
Joyce Banda.  In the case of Banda, the UDF very publicly 
took away her party vehicle, saying that she was too active 
in organizing women in favor of government policies. 
 
Attacks Not Having the Desired Effect 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Despite weeks of increasing criticism from the 
disgruntled UDF members, President Mutharika remains 
politically popular and is carrying forward his agenda.  The 
Malawian public remains very supportive of Mutharika's 
ant-corruption campaign, and is satisfied to see the arrests 
of certain former Muluzi ministers who were widely perceived 
to be engaged in unsavory activities.  As one high-level 
contact told us this week "no one feels sorry for these guys." 
 
¶6. (SBU) Mutharika himself appears to be taking the high road 
in all of this.  He has not responded to these attacks, nor 
have his ministers.  The actions by the UDF to strip key 
ministers of their party positions was met with very little 
public comment by those affected.   In several public 
appearances in the past week the president has appeared 
relaxed and confident.  He appears to be concentrating on the 
business of governing, and not allowing himself to be pulled 
into petty party squabbles. 
 
Broadening the Base 
------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) Mutharika has met recently with a number of difference 
constituencies such as university students and workers, in 
high-profile public appearances, in an apparent effort to 
broaden his political base and emphasize that he is the 
president of all Malawians, not just members of the UDF.  A 
speech to students at Chancellor College generated much 
positive media coverage and favorable editorials for having 
the courage to take on a university audience. 
 
¶8. (U) The president has built a de facto coalition with the 
opposition, based on his "zero tolerance" anti-corruption 
stance and fiscal conservatism, that is holding very well. 
The opposition parties have not been very critical of his 
policies.  Only in the past two weeks have there been some 
noises from the opposition that their support has limits, and 
that they expect to see results soon, particularly in the 
area of corruption. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Despite these strident attacks, Mutharika continues 
to gain support with the wider Malawian public.  He has 
plenty of political capital, but the goodwill cannot last 
forever.  To maintain public confidence, Mutharika must gain 
successful convictions in at least some of the high-profile 
corruption cases that are currently awaiting trial.  Failure 
to achieve that could endanger much of his reform program and 
signal opposition politicians to seek stronger leadership 
elsewhere.  For the time being, though, Mutharika is the 
strongest player in the game, and both the opposition and 
most of the UDF continue to follow him. 
GILMOUR