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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 ABUJA 000680 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/PD; R; INR SSHAFFER 
LAGOS FOR PAS 
IBB FOR VOA ENGLISH, HAUSA SERVICES TO AFRICA 
USEUCOM FOR PAO 
 
E.O. 12598: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KPAO NI
SUBJECT:  PUBLIC DIPLOMACY INFLUENCE ANALYSIS IN 
NIGERIA 
 
REF:  STATE 033359 
 
¶1.  Introduction:  Nigeria is Africa's most 
populous nation with approximately 130 million 
people.  The country has access to a complex array 
of media, both foreign and domestic, electronic 
and print, as well as growing use of the Internet. 
Nigerian public figures and opinion leaders 
utilize and are influenced by all forms of media 
and communication systems.  That said, electronic 
media are most pervasive in Nigerian society and 
have the strongest reach to mass audiences.  A BBC 
survey of Nigerians estimated that 70 percent of 
people get their news from radio, 20 percent from 
television, and 10 percent from newspapers.  Given 
the high reliance on electronic forms of media, 
the Nigerian Government has been reluctant to give 
up its control of national and state-level radio 
and television network stations.  Private radio 
and television stations, though limited to certain 
geographic markets, continue to make inroads 
against government media outlets.  The government 
has largely ceded the print media to the private 
sector, which has a surprisingly high number of 
daily and weekly newspapers competing for a 
comparatively small readership.  Internet access 
is growing in Nigeria, although it is often used 
to misinform, as well as inform public opinion. 
 
¶2.  Given the high degree of government control in 
the media, press independence remains a work in 
progress.  Thus, Nigerians rely heavily on foreign 
media outlets, especially BBC, VOA, DW (Germany's 
Deutsche Welle international broadcast station) 
and CNN for information about world news and 
secondarily, Nigerian news.  Aware of the 
popularity of foreign media that derives mainly 
from decades of military rule and lack of 
confidence in Nigerian government media, Nigerian 
officials worry about foreign media influence in 
Nigeria, and have voiced their displeasure over 
BBC, VOA and CNN reports, and try to limit use of 
BBC and VOA broadcasts by domestic broadcasters. 
Recently, the National Broadcasting Commission 
forbade the direct rebroadcast of foreign news by 
Nigerian affiliate stations.  This measure does 
not affect Nigerian audiences who receive BBC, 
VOA, DW, CNN, or other foreign broadcasts via 
satellite television or shortwave radio. 
 
¶3.  For foreign radio broadcasters, Nigeria 
represents two distinct audiences divided largely 
by language and geography.    Roughly half of 
Nigeria's population lives in northern Nigeria, 
speaks Hausa as a first language, or uses Hausa as 
a second language or lingua franca.  This group is 
predominantly Muslim while southern Nigeria is 
largely English-speaking and Christian.  While 
many southern Yorubas are also Muslim, Islamic 
scholars (and Nigerians Muslims themselves) make a 
clear distinction between Yoruba Muslims and those 
from the north.  Thus, BBC and VOA have English as 
well as Hausa language programs to cover northern 
audiences while English programming is more 
popular in the south.  The current political 
differences between the government and main 
opposition party (based in northern Nigeria) 
sharpen the divide, and northern media frequently 
criticize the southwest-based media for the 
latter's poor understanding of the north. 
 
¶4.  In Nigeria, however, it is important to 
distinguish between how people receive news and 
information, and how they ultimately arrive at 
conclusions regarding that information.  There are 
also differences between how elites process 
information and effective strategies to influence 
elite opinion, and how average Nigerians get their 
information and formulate opinions.  U.S. 
government-to-Nigerian government influence 
strategies are only partially successful in 
Nigeria, as Nigerian public officials are very 
dependent on the opinions of other African 
government officials and voices from the Non- 
Aligned Movement.  For contentious issues between 
the USG and Nigeria, we should look to respected 
intermediaries and messengers who are held in high 
esteem by Nigerian officials - either 
distinguished African-American leaders or other 
African officials who enjoy access in Nigeria. 
Regardless of what they hear from the media, 
average Nigerians place great stock in the 
opinions of local religious and traditional 
leaders, and can be influenced (both positively 
and negatively) by such people.  In both the north 
and south, traditional and religious leaders play 
an increasingly important role as one moves away 
from urban centers and as literacy levels decline. 
End introduction. 
 
The Media Environment in Nigeria 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶5.   The media environment in Nigeria is 
remarkably complex, with sharp north-south 
differences.  In both the north and south, 
however, radio remains the means by which most 
Nigerians hear news.  Nigerian radio broadcasting 
was totally government controlled at the federal 
and state levels until September 1994, when the 
National Broadcasting Commission approved the 
first private radio station.  With digitized 
studios, Western-style programming and a 24-hour-a- 
day format, Ray Power 100 FM quickly became the 
most popular radio station in Lagos and its 
environs.  Between mid-1996 and 1999, seven new 
private radio stations were established.  These 
include Minaj Radio in the east, Benin City-based 
Independent Radio and Television (ITV), Lagos- 
based Rhythm 93.7, Cool FM, Star FM, and Ray Power 
2 FM, which BBC sponsored.  The federal government 
approved licenses for 16 radio stations in 2002. 
A new opposition party (ANPP) funded radio 
station, Freedom Radio, began operations in Kano 
in early 2004.  As with television, independent 
radio stations lack national coverage and are 
mostly regionally based.  In addition, the 
Government of Nigeria sponsors the Voice of 
Nigeria (VON), which broadcasts news and feature 
stories about Nigeria within the country as well 
as outside Nigeria to neighboring West African 
nations and South Africa, where many Nigerians 
live. 
 
¶6.  The government regulates the national 
television airwaves through the National 
Broadcasting Commission (NBC), a nominally 
independent body.  The federal government-owned 
National Television Authority (NTA) network 
operates stations in the state capitals and has 
two "autonomous" stations in Lagos.   In 1993, the 
NBC approved licenses for fourteen independent 
broadcasters.  By 1996, however, only eight 
broadcasters were in operation and the other six 
licenses were revoked.  The NTA is the only 
national television broadcasting operation.  Minaj 
and AIT Raypower are popular independent 
television stations, but do not have national 
coverage.  Galaxy TV is popular in Lagos and 
Ibadan, while Channels TV in Lagos is also a 
critically acclaimed independent station with a 
largely southwestern following.  Commercially, 
NTA, AIT, Minaj, and Channels are available within 
Africa via satellite, while AIT and Minaj 
broadcasts may be received by U.S. and British 
satellite subscribers. 
 
¶7.  The print media sector is the most competitive 
and varied in Nigeria, with more than 20 national 
English-language newspapers and a half dozen 
weekly newsmagazines.  State-owned newspapers 
continue to face financial problems and 
competition from the national dailies.  Most have 
either gone under or are produced sporadically; 
those that remain are publicity vehicles for the 
state governments.  Despite the large number of 
papers competing for newsstand space and 
readership, circulation figures for newspapers are 
low - less than 100,000 per paper and many less 
than 25,000; with combined circulation figures at 
roughly 750,000 - a low figure for a country whose 
total population is estimated at 130 million. 
Most Nigerians live on less than one dollar per 
day and cannot afford to spend half of that on a 
newspaper.  In urban areas in particular, many 
people share newspapers, read them at newsstands 
without purchasing them, or discuss news stories 
on public transport. 
 
Regional Media Differences 
-------------------------- 
 
¶8.   In the north, radio is particularly important 
in reaching large audiences, and the Hausa 
language broadcasts are very popular.  Both 
Nigerian and foreign stations, BBC, VOA, DW 
inclusive, have large listenerships.  A recent VOA 
survey indicates that the BBC leads in the 
northern radio market with 53.9 percent; VOA has 
44.7 percent of the market while DW has 36 
percent.  (Note:  Many people listen to more than 
one station.  End Note)  Because of the north's 
relative low literacy rate and lack of 
development, television, especially English 
language broadcasts, does not yet reach large 
audiences.  But satellite broadcasts -- not only 
BBC and CNN but Arabic-language stations from the 
Middle East -- reach and influence the elite. 
Cable television subscriptions, bringing 
international stations to Nigerian viewers by 
satellite, have become more important in affluent 
communities, including in the north.  In addition 
to CNN, BBC, MTV and other commercial movie 
channels, Nigeria's cable providers bundle free 
Arabic channels -- courtesy of Saudi Arabia, Iran, 
Iraq, Libya, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates - 
- into the channel mix.  ABG and MG Satellite 
Communications are northern Nigeria's main cable 
distributors for the Arabic channels. 
 
¶9.  While radio reaches the widest audiences in 
the south, radio is viewed as an entertainment 
media as much as a news source, with FM and AM 
stations playing a wide variety of music forms. 
Higher education levels and more urbanized 
populations make television important for 
influencing southern elites and middle-class 
Nigerians, but television is largely non-existent 
for average citizens in villages.  Many private 
television stations replay BBC or CNN news stories 
of international events.  Newspapers are also more 
readily available in the southwest, since most are 
printed there and northerners view most of the 
southern papers as ethnically biased. 
 
¶10.   Two northern-focused Internet sites such as 
www.almizan.faithweb.com and www.gamji.com have 
elite followings, meaning their influence reaches 
far beyond the few individuals who have direct 
access to the Internet.  These opinions are 
constantly reprinted in newspapers or made 
reference to in op-ed policy debates.  The gamji 
site has a cult following and has become very 
influential with northern intellectuals, labor 
leaders, northern Muslim/Christian youth 
activists, NGO, and student groups.  Issues 
discussed are far-ranging, but substantially anti- 
U.S., including events in the Middle East, 
September 11, and the war against terror.  The 
south has no similar geographic/ethnically focused 
websites; users log on to allAfrica.com or the CNN 
and BBC websites for international online news. 
 
¶11.  Like the south, northern newspapers are not 
the primary source of news for average Nigerians, 
but they do have some sway among intellectuals and 
political opinion leaders.  Two more prominent 
papers are Hausa publications, Gaskiya and Al- 
Mizan.  Gaskiya Ta Fi Kwabo ("Truth is Better Than 
Money") is owned by a consortium of northern state 
governments, this sister newspaper to The New 
Nigerian is the oldest Hausa language newspaper in 
northern Nigeria.  For 64 years Gaskiya has 
reflected a pro-north, anti-West focus. 
Circulation is estimated at 50,000.  Al-Mizan is a 
radical Islamic Hausa weekly paper that strongly 
communicates anti-American views and advocates an 
Islamic State.  Sold for less than the other 
papers, it is published in Zaria on Friday, and it 
is characteristically sold to Friday Mosque 
congregations. Total print run is 12,000, but 
estimated readership is over 60,000.  The 
newspaper is also available on the Internet 
through www.faithweb.com.  Al-Mizan is influential 
with radical Muslim youths.  Its founder and 
publisher is an Ahmadu Bello University trained 
economist and student of the Iranian Revolution, 
Sheikh El-Zak-Zaky.  Two English dailies, the New 
Nigerian and the Daily Trust, are also published 
in the north.  The New Nigerian is managed by 
northern state governments, and adheres to a pro- 
government editorial line, while the independent 
Trust follows a strong anti-American and anti-West 
policy.  Circulation for both papers is estimated 
to be similar to that of the Hausa papers. 
 
¶12.  Similar to the north, many of the southern 
papers and broadcasting stations are owned by 
politicians and/or Nigerian businessmen interested 
in establishing a platform by which to express 
their views.  Many operate in the red, and are 
supported by the owners' other business concerns. 
Some southern papers have established partnerships 
and use material from abroad; the Financial Times 
contributes about one-third of Business Day's 
material; The Sun - a tabloid paper featuring 
gossip, sports, and some news stories, mirrors the 
Sun of London.  Local language and ethnically 
based papers are important in the south.  The 
Champion is published in Lagos and is a barometer 
of Igbo opinion.  The Yoruba language Alaroye is 
seen as the leading medium that reaches villages 
and the urban poor in the southwest.  Alaroye is 
also loosely affiliated with a Yoruba radio 
station to increase its impact.  Both the paper 
and radio station appeal to English-speaking 
elites in the southwest, and the viewpoints run 
from neutral to pro-American. 
 
¶13.  Aside from traditional media, a broad 
category of other information sources also 
includes the influential teachings in the mosques, 
churches, Sunday schools and Islamic schools. 
Some of the opinions in circulation come from 
visiting scholars and clerics, and are a 
particular source of influence in an increasingly 
illiterate northern Nigeria.  There is a sector of 
sponsored pro-Islamic information sources with 
grassroots influence that is primarily religious 
and anti-U.S. in character.  Some of them, 
especially the pro-Islamic sponsored literature, 
pamphlets and hand bills exploit the Hausa 
language to build a large readership.  Internet 
chat groups are also influential with the elite 
and political class.  In terms of direct third- 
country influence, both Iran and Saudi Arabia are 
of note. Iran's efforts are formally aimed at 
spreading the Shia form of Islam in local Koranic 
schools and Muslim populations.  Publications are 
part of an effort that includes placing teachers 
in Koranic schools and study groups in Iran.  The 
targets for Saudi Arabia's effort are Islamic 
clerics, Islamic scholars and the academic 
community.  Like the Iranian sponsorships, the 
Saudi effort includes scholarships for study at 
King Abdulaziz University in Saudi Arabia. 
 
¶14.  Christian organizations in the south are a 
large force for mobilizing crowds but are not 
generally viewed as political actors; parishes 
actively discourage political messages.  A major 
source of southern information (but not 
necessarily influence) on the U.S. comes from 
relatives living in the States.  With the majority 
of the students and immigrants to the U.S. coming 
from the south, southerners are well connected to 
the U.S. 
 
Who Matters and the MPP 
----------------------- 
 
¶15.  The political class is influential, but the 
Nigerian President makes the critical decisions. 
The top political party leaders, religious 
leaders, labor leaders, traditional rulers, youth 
organizations, and academics have varying levels 
of influence in the government's decision-making. 
The military, although under civilian control, 
still retains significant influence, and Muslim 
clerics are the most influential in northern 
Nigeria.  Journalists are important in informing 
the public and mobilizing public opinion, but have 
little direct influence as individuals. 
 
--  Global Health:  Opinion leaders include 
government health workers, NGOs, and other donors, 
and normal USG influence channels tend to be 
effective.  Nigeria recently witnessed however, 
the strength of northern religious and political 
leaders in setting back the polio vaccination 
campaign through the spread of misinformation in a 
number of northern states.  Anti-U.S. Nigerian 
media supported this effort.  Our ability to 
directly influence such people is extremely 
limited.  The polio issue underscored that a 
largely illiterate population is more influenced 
by local leadership than by mass media.  While the 
mission suggested respected health officials from 
other Islamic countries as possible interlocutors, 
there remains concern over the utility/political 
neutrality of such people.  On HIV/AIDS, there 
exists cooperation and willingness to work with 
the USG at a number of government levels and 
within all geographic zones.  Early engagement of 
traditional, political, and other key decision 
makers will be critical to maintain positive 
cooperation on HIV/AIDS and will ensure USG 
targets under President Bush's initiative will be 
reached. 
 
--  Anti-Terrorism:  Key personnel in this arena 
are the Nigerian security services, including 
military, police and intelligence officials. 
Nigerian political culture does not and is 
unlikely to support international terrorism within 
Nigeria.  Even northern Muslim politicians, many 
of whom have a military background, would not see 
it in their interest to support a fundamentalist 
Islamic state, despite paying lip service to 
Sharia implementation in the north.  For them, 
identification with Islam is a political means to 
gaining power, money, and the patronage that comes 
from political power.  All three groups remain 
outside the influence of the independent media to 
a large degree.  The military are keen to be 
perceived as superior among African militaries and 
have a tradition of international 
cooperation/interaction with other militaries. 
The Nigerian police, who traditionally have worked 
to maintain the political status quo rather than 
protect Nigerian citizens, are also interested in 
cultivating a more professional image and 
increasingly looking outward for support.  The 
intelligence services see cooperation with the 
U.S. far outweighing non-cooperation on issues 
relating to terrorism.   All groups are amenable 
to official channels of USG influence in this 
area. 
 
--   Democratic Systems and Practices:  Nigerian 
politicians all subscribe to democracy in theory 
but in practice elections at both the national and 
local levels have been deemed by observers as less 
than fair and free.  The separation of powers is 
questionable; an independent press remains in its 
infancy.  The USG must work with members of the 
political class and civil society to implement 
democratic reforms, with the former group most 
resistant to altering the status quo.  Effective 
interlocutors include African-American 
politicians, other African leaders and respected 
personalities on the Continent, and members of the 
Commonwealth.  President Obasanjo is favorably 
disposed to South African President Mbeki and 
Ghanaian President John Kufour; he also pays heed 
to British Prime Minister Blair, U.S. President 
Bush, and the UN Secretary General.  As much as 
Nigerian political leaders appeal to the Nigerian 
American members of the diaspora to assist 
Nigeria, the latter are viewed as biased and too 
critical in most matters of Nigerian domestic 
politics. 
 
--  Economic Growth and Development:  Nigerian 
government officials and members of the business 
community are key to this MPP goal.  President 
Obasanjo has put in place a respected economic 
team, Nigeria has great economic potential, and 
the government constantly appeals for foreign 
investment.  Overcoming corruption, insecurity, 
and establishing effective rule of law are keys to 
fulfilling this MPP goal.  The most effective 
interlocutors will be outside Nigeria, as the GON 
maintains a cozy relationship with corporate 
Nigeria that will be difficult to break.  Other 
African business leaders, international 
banking/finance groups, and Nigeria's neighbors 
(who could benefit from a economically stable 
Nigeria) should help in this regard.  The Nigerian 
media have been helpful in highlighting corruption 
and inadequacies in the GON's approach to fighting 
corruption.  Unions and labor, with their ability 
to transcend regional, sectarian and ethnic 
cleavages, are an important factor in the economic 
sphere, as are civil society/youth groups in the 
oil-rich Delta region.  The latter area is rife 
for conflict based on ethnic, political and 
economic rivalries.  Conflict resolution 
strategies and interlocutors skilled in mediating 
ethnic dispute settlements would be helpful for 
such problems. 
 
--  Food Security and Agricultural Development: 
The GON and farmers are the key groups and normal 
USG influence works with in both the government 
and private sectors.  This is an area of GON 
interest, and one in which the GON cooperates with 
the USG and where we can exercise some level of 
effective influence. 
 
--  Law Enforcement and Judicial Systems:  The 
Nigerian law enforcement community had little to 
no role under the former military regimes.  As a 
profession, it does not have the same status in 
Nigeria as in other societies, and police are 
viewed by the public as predators rather than 
protectors.  They will require continued attention 
from international police assistance programs and 
professional development programs, as well as GON 
political commitment to weed out corrupt police 
officials.  Within Nigeria, NGO human rights/legal 
watchdog groups and the media can provide 
oversight of police officers and to ensure that 
inadequacies are effectively handled. 
 
--  Resolution of Regional Conflicts:  Nigeria 
enjoys its reputation as an African leader and the 
government will continue to support regional 
peacekeeping efforts within Africa as long as 
international support is there to pay for such 
exercises.  The Nigerian public also sees Nigeria 
as having a role within Africa in this regard. 
Other African states, ECOWAS, the UN, the 
Commonwealth, as well as the Nigeria Conflict 
Advisory Committee (USAID, World Bank, DFID, and 
UNDP) and the USG are effective centers of 
influence. 
 
--  Public Diplomacy and Influencing Nigerian 
Public Opinion:  Both Nigeria's independent press 
and government media are willing to work with the 
USG and provide us with access on many issues; 
traditionally anti-U.S./anti-West media are more 
reticent.  For the latter group, American Muslims 
are effective speakers, and moderate Islamic 
voices necessary to counter extremists' views and 
the anti-USG, anti-West conspiracy theories common 
in the north.  With the growth of the Internet 
among journalists and easier access to wire 
services, traditional USG products such as 
Washington File stories are difficult to place as 
the same information can be easily obtained from a 
non-partisan news source.  Being able to provide 
finished media products of Mission events (tapes 
for television and radio stations, particularly in 
Hausa for northern radio) as well as radio/TV 
programming of pro-U.S./West interest to Muslim 
audiences that can be rebroadcast would be helpful 
in furthering USG bilateral efforts in Nigeria. 
 
ROBERTS