This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

250929Z Jul 03

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001506 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENTARY AGENDA HOLDS FEW SUPRISES - 
LIMITATIONS ON FREE EXPRESSION AND ECONOMIC DECLINE TO 
CONTINUE 
 
REF: A. HARARE 1311 
 
     ¶B. HARARE 874 
     ¶C. 02 HARARE 2545 
 
 ¶1. (SBU) Summary.  The Fourth Session of Parliament promises 
to be much the same with the GOZ intent on legislation that 
further stifles dissent, free speech, NGOs, and private 
sector initiatives.  President Mugabe's economic agenda, 
which he presented during the July 22 Parliamentary opening 
day ceremony, is fantastical, given the prevailing economic 
conditions, and will do nothing to reverse the downward 
economic spiral.  End Summary. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
No Surprises in ZANU-PF Parliamentary Agenda 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The Fourth Session of the Fifth Parliament opened 
July 22 with a speech by President Robert Mugabe in which he 
proposed seventeen new bills ZANU-PF would like to pass 
through Parliament.  Several of these new pieces of 
legislation would imperil economic recovery, curtail free 
speech more, and impinge on civil liberties. 
 
Still Trying to Get NGOs 
------------------------ 
¶3. (U) ZANU-PF has proposed the Non-Governmental 
Organizations Bill, which seeks to ensure the operations of 
Non-Governmental Organizations(NGOs) are consistent with and 
supportive of government policies and programs.  It expands 
the definition of NGOs to include trusts. In September 2002, 
the Government required NGOs to register with the Ministry of 
Social Welfare, in compliance with the Private Voluntary 
Organizations Act, or they would have to cease operations. 
Several ministers asserted that organizations that were not 
required to register because they did not fit the definition 
of an NGO, such as Amani Trust, Zimbabwe Democracy Trust and 
Southern Africa Media Development Fund, were not properly 
registered and engaged in activities intended to unseat the 
government. (See Reftel C). 
 
No More Parliamentary Boycotts 
------------------------------ 
¶4. (U) The Privileges Amendment Bill seeks to amend several 
Acts of Parliament to punish MPs who boycott, interrupt, or 
walk out on a Presidential address to Parliament.  The 
offending MP would be subject to a fine equivalent to six 
months, salary.  The bill would also afford more protection 
to judges against arrest or search in court premises where 
they are judges. 
 
More Land for the Taking 
------------------------ 
¶5.  (U) The Land Acquisition Amendment Bill seeks to speed up 
the remaining process of acquiring the remaining designated 
land.  Mugabe's speech did not make it clear if the 
legislation would sanction his supporters who have abused the 
land redistribution for personal gain. 
 
Indigenization Campaign Continues 
--------------------------------- 
¶6. (U) The Indigenization Bill would ensure that companies 
allocate at least twenty percent of shareholding to workers. 
The Mines and Minerals Act also seeks to make it easier for 
small-scale indigenous miners to participate in the industry. 
 (Note: Although the bill has yet to be introduced, GOZ 
officials in Mutare have already sent a letter to local 
industrialists instructing them to list how they would comply 
with the 20 percent requirement.  End note.) 
 
A New Fund to Help Poor 
----------------------- 
¶7. (SBU) The Posts and Telecommunications Act will set up a 
fund to ensure telecommunication and postal services are 
available to the rural population at reduced prices. 
(Comment: This new fund will most likely not help the rural 
population obtain low-cost phone and postal services unless 
it is designed as an urban (opposition stronghold) subsidy 
for rural areas (ZANU-PF constituency).  It will probably be 
another source of funds for the GOZ to tap for other 
purposes.  End comment.) 
 
Unfinished Business 
------------------- 
¶8. (U) In addition to these items, Parliament will resume 
debate on the Citizenship Bill and Electoral Bill, which both 
received adverse reports from the Parliamentary Legal 
Committee (see Reftels A and B). In addition to debate on 
these two bills, Parliament is likely to debate the expulsion 
of Zengeza MDC MP Tafadzwa Musekiwa, who has missed more than 
the constitutional limit of 21 consecutive days of 
Parliament. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Economic Plan = Recipe for Destruction 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Mugabe,s economic recovery ambitions are not based 
on reality, or any concept close to this.  The projects and 
policy solutions he proposed in his speech are not based on 
visible economic principles and ignore the role government 
has played in creating the current disastrous economic 
situation.  Mugabe expressed incredulity that basic goods 
such as milk, bread, and vegetable oil reappeared after price 
controls were effectively lifted and prices rose to market 
rates, and then said the GOZ must strengthen price-monitoring 
mechanisms while simultaneously encouraging companies to 
increase capacity utilization. The objective of this 
strengthening exercise is supposedly to make consumer goods 
more affordable but the two objectives are antithetical, as 
the recent history of price controls and production shows. 
In another example of economic ignorance, Mugabe seemed to 
advocate stronger government interference in the production 
process when he proclaimed that the main challenge to 
economic revival was the provision of adequate means, 
production targets, and technical assistance. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Mugabe blamed the shortage of foreign exchange in 
the economy on a weak monetary authority and unclear monetary 
policies that allowed abuse of earnings and speculative 
activities, but he did connect these poor monetary policies 
with the crack-brained ZANU-PF government policies that were 
the root cause.  He also blamed the unethical practices of 
financial institutions, mining houses, and individual 
exporters for the country's problems.  To curb these 
practices, Mugabe said the GOZ would introduce an 
Anti-Corruption Commission Bill to stem the outflow of 
foreign exchange through over or under invoicing, discount 
pricing, advance payments to foreign suppliers of raw 
materials, and smuggling of precious metals.  Mugabe also 
proclaimed that interest rates must be brought down to create 
real wealth, even though real interest rates are already 
negative, but never addressed the spiraling inflation rate. 
 
¶11. (SBU) The grandiose economic recovery plans presented in 
Mugabe,s speech are not feasible in the prevailing economic 
environment, especially given the GOZs lack of foreign 
exchange.  Mugabe told Parliament that the GOZ would continue 
construction on ongoing dam projects and begin at least two 
new one.  He also indicated that the GOZ would rehabilitate 
existing smallholder irrigation schemes and construct at 
least two medium irrigation schemes per province (at least 16 
projects).  He did not explain how the GOZ would pay for 
these initiatives. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Mugabe said the GOZ would strive for 
self-sufficiency in the energy sector.  He cited an 
infeasible memorandum of understanding between the Zimbabwe 
Electricity Supply Authority (ZESA) and the Mozambique 
government for ZESA to take up equity in Mozambique's Hydro 
Caborra Bassa (HCB).  (Note: The Mozambique Government 
reportedly owes Portugal a large sum for HCB costs and wants 
to sell a percentage of the dam. End note.) However, the GOZ 
cannot buy a percentage of the HCB because they have not 
foreign exchange.  Mugabe hinted at a liberalization of the 
fuel sector through a dual price structure even though a dual 
price structure requires huge subsidies and is open to abuse. 
 He also proposed an ambitious Gaseous Hydrocarbons Bill that 
would provide for exploration, production, importation, 
transportation, distribution, and utilization of coal-based 
gaseous products and natural gas for economic development, 
even though the GOZ has no way to financial support such 
efforts and it is inconceivable that foreign investors would 
risk a significant up front investment in the prevailing 
business climate. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
No Ratification of Counterterrorism Protocols 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) Contrary to what Zimbabwe has led the U.N. Security 
Council's Counterterrorism Committee to believe, ratification 
of the UNSCR 1373 is most likely not on Parliament's agenda. 
Mugabe did not mention this, and neither ZANU-PF nor MDC MPs 
with whom we spoke were aware of the need for this action. 
(Note: The executive office typically sets Parliament's 
agenda and proposes legislation.  End note.) PolOff,s 
attempts to confirm whether the item is on the parliamentary 
agenda with Parliament's clerk were futile.  Nonetheless, the 
Money Laundering and Proceeds of Crime Bill, which seeks to 
establish an anti-money laundering authority to monitor any 
persons suspected of money laundering and provides for the 
confiscation of ill-gotten gains of crimes, may be a move 
toward implementing sections of UNSCR 1373.  It is perhaps 
the one bright spot in an otherwise dim legislative agenda. 
 
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Comment 
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¶14. (SBU) Mugabe,s speech gives a preview as to what 
Parliament will do in the next session, particularly since 
most bills come from the executive through the ministries. 
If passed, the proposed legislation would maintain the status 
quo, and Zimbabwe would in all likelihood continue along the 
path of international isolation and condemnation and economic 
decline.  The economic development and recovery plan Mugabe 
proposes can be summarily dismissed because the GOZ does not 
have the wherewithal to fund any of these initiatives, 
refuses to accept basic economic principles, and ignores the 
reality on the ground.  End comment. 
SULLIVAN