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CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

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Viewing cable 03ANKARA1529, TURKEY'S ECONOMY MARCH 11: MARKETS QUIET, WEAK

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
03ANKARA1529 2003-03-11 12:37 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Ankara 
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
 
UNCLAS ANKARA 001529 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
 
STATE FOR E, P, EUR/SE AND EB 
TREASURY FOR U/S TAYLOR AND OASIA - MILLS 
NSC FOR QUANRUD AND BRYZA 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON PREL TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY'S ECONOMY MARCH 11: MARKETS QUIET, WEAK 
DEMAND FOR DOLLAR BOND 
 
Sensitive but unclassified, and not for internet 
distribution. 
 
 
Unsuccessful Dollar Bond Auction 
-------------------------------- 
 
 
1.  (U) On March 11, Turkish Treasury auctioned a 546-day 
dollar-denominated bond in the local debt market to weak 
demand.  The annual yield - 6.88 percent - was below market 
expectations, but the Treasury only succeeded in selling 
$180.5 million. 
 
 
2.  (SBU) Comment:  The debt redemption on March 12 is quite 
small - TL 545 trillion (about $337 million).  The largest 
redemption of the month is next week, with a payment of TL 
5.2 quadrillion ($3.2 billion).   Thus, today's auction 
doesn't help raise money for next week, and this will put 
added pressure on the March 18 auction. 
 
 
3.  (SBU)  Comment continued:  Local bond traders (Deutsche 
Bank's Dilek Yardim) tell us the Turkish sovereign dollar 
bonds are currently less attractive than lira-denominated 
debt, with its 25 percent real interest rate.  This wasn't 
always the case.  In 2001, when exchange rate risk was high 
in Turkey, dollar bonds were quite attractive (and the yields 
were 12-14 percent as compared with today's 7 percent.) 
 
 
Markets Quiet, Waiting for the Erdogan GOT 
------------------------------------------ 
 
 
4.  (SBU) Local financial markets remained in a waiting mode, 
with T-bill yields unchanged at 56.5-57 percent compounded, 
lira at TL 1,610,000 to the dollar and the stock exchange 
down 0.8 percent in very light trading. 
 
 
5.  (SBU) Comment: Markets are waiting for the formation of 
the Erdogan government, with expectations still high that the 
new GOT will move to pass a second resolution that unlocks 
the U.S. package.  We are hearing rumors from multiple 
sources that Erdogan might change several ministers, 
including MinState for Treasury Ali Babacan.  We have no 
confirmation of these rumors. 
PEARSON