This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002700 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAGR ECON PHUM PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: ONLY 600 OF 4500 COMMERCIAL FARMERS STILL STANDING 
 
REF: HARARE 2561 
 
¶1.  Summary.  Given the chaotic nature of President Mugabe's 
fast-track land reform, it is no easy task to quantify this 
program.  Of 4,500 white-owned commercial farms, our best 
guess is that 3,900 have closed down and 4,275 have been 
slated for resettlement.  Despite GOZ claims that the land 
resettlement process is complete, farmers continue to receive 
new Section 8 acquisition notices, and others continue to 
come under eviction pressure from "third party" forces (e.g., 
war veteran, youth militia, or settler groups).  Observers 
estimate that between 300,000 and 500,000 farm workers have 
lost their homes and jobs, despite press statements from 
Minister of Information Jonathan Moyo that "there are no 
displaced farm workers in Zimbabwe" -- which statement 
contradicts GOZ letters to the UN.  The GOZ claims it has 
resettled 350,000 black farmers on the subdivided commercial 
farms, but based on anecdotal evidence and ad-hoc 
observation, we estimate that fewer than 100,000 have taken 
up residence and fewer than 40,000 are actually farming.  As 
noted reftel, we believe it is difficult to view fast-track 
land reform as anything but a failure at this juncture.  The 
controversial program will devastate tobacco production, 
formerly Zimbabwe's largest foreign exchange earner and top 
private sector employer.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  Despite the GOZ's claims that land resettlement is a fait 
accompli, there is little indication that the process has 
reached equilibrium.  Some commercial farmers have been 
granted temporary relief through the courts based on 
procedural defects in their acquisition orders, although most 
of these expect to receive new acquisition orders at any 
moment.  Other commercial farmers -- 111 total, and at least 
twenty in the Karoi area according to one contact -- have 
received new Section 8 acquisition orders since November 1. 
 
Actual Occupancy Difficult to Substantiate 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶3.  Due to the fluid situation regarding validity of 
acquisition notices, geographical intensity of settler / war 
veteran activity, and individual resistance on the part of 
evicted farmers, there is no consensus as to how many 
commercial farmers remain on their property.  There is 
similar lack of consensus on how many "new farmers" have been 
settled.  Most observers concur that at least 95% of 
commercial farms (approximately 4,275 of 4,500) have received 
acquisition notices, although some farmers remain on their 
land and continue to resist acquisition through the courts 
with varying degrees of success.  The closest estimate at 
this point is that approximately 600 commercial farmers are 
still attempting to produce something on their land, although 
more than half of those continue to struggle against actual 
seizure of their property.  The GOZ continues to claim that 
300,000 indigenous farmers have been resettled under the A1 
small-holder model, and that 50,000 indigenous farmer have 
been resettled under the A2, or "new" commercial farmer, 
model.  The true levels of resettlement lie far below these 
optimistic claims. 
 
¶4.  Occupation of resettled plots cannot be estimated with 
any certainty, but visits by Post personnel to affected areas 
indicate that productive cultivation of acquired farms is the 
exception rather than the rule.  Even ZANU-PF supported news 
reports concede that convincing A2 "new farmers" to take up 
their plots has  been difficult.  It is less clear what 
proportions of A1 farmers are on the land, but the GOZ figure 
of 300,000 is almost certainly an exaggeration.  Moreover, 
based on our personal observations, we believe that a 
substantial portion of these small-scale farmers have not 
planted a significant crop on resettled land.  The pattern 
has been that plots containing buildings such as a homestead 
or barns are occupied quickly, while the majority of plots 
without such amenities remain abandoned.  The impact that 
resettlement is having on individual agricultural sectors is 
slightly easier to quantify. 
 
 
Commercial Farmers' Union Statistics 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶5.  The Commercial Farmers' Union (CFU), battered by GOZ 
disdain and rocked by internal conflict, is desperately 
attempting to maintain some degree of relevance in the 
current chaotic situation.  Many CFU farmers, once they have 
been evicted from their property, no longer maintain ties 
with or forward information regarding their situations to the 
CFU leadership.  However, the CFU remains one of the few 
organizations attempting to quantify the situation of 
commercial farmers as a whole.  The CFU claims that 90% of 
white commercial farmers have been formally dispossessed of 
their properties since the beginning of the land reforms in 
¶2000.  At this point, the organization estimates that 600 
commercial farmers retain some physical control of their 
property, although many remain under threat of acquisition. 
 
Commercial Tobacco Farmers Drop from 1,580 to 330 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶6.  Tobacco, long an integral part of Zimbabwe's economy 
which accounted for up to a third of foreign exchange, 
deserves special mention.  Zimbabwe produced its maximum 
output of 220 million kilograms of tobacco in 2000. During 
this last growing season, approximately 1,580 commercial 
farmers produced 148 million kgs of high-grade tobacco, while 
approximately 12,000 small-scale indigenous farmers produced 
12 million kgs -- a reduction of 60 million kgs.  Owing to 
experience and economies of scale, commercial growers can 
produce between 2,500 and 3,000 kgs per hectare, while 
small-scale growers generally produce around 1,000 kgs per 
hectare. 
 
¶7.  The Zimbabwe Tobacco Association (ZTA), an apolitical 
industry group whose survival depends on the success of 
small-scale growers, keeps fairly close estimates of tobacco 
grower activity.  ZTA states that approximately 330 
large-scale commercial growers are attempting to produce a 
crop during the next season.  Of those commercial growers, 
the ZTA believes that at least half are facing continued GOZ 
attempts to acquire their land.  The ZTA estimates that next 
year's tobacco crop could result in 70 million kgs, if 
commercial growers can maintain control of their land through 
the harvest and curing process.  Other observers are 
predicting a maximum crop size of 20 to 30 million kgs. 
Although seed sales indicate that next season's crop could 
theoretically equal last year's yield, many factors suggest 
that this -- along with the GOZ's euphoric predictions of a 
2003 crop in excess of 300 million kgs -- is merely wishful 
thinking. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. According to the ZTA, tobacco is a chemical-intensive 
crop, requiring expensive insecticides and fertilizers 
throughout the growing period, and the "new" small-scale 
farmers (who, without title to their land, have little 
collateral for bank loans) have been given scant GOZ 
assistance.  Additionally, many existing small-scale farmers 
previously received significant assistance from their 
commercial farmer neighbors in the form of tobacco seedlings, 
chemicals, and assistance with tillage.  With the 
dispossession of the vast majority of the commercial farmers, 
much of this assistance has disappeared.  Finally, production 
of the most valuable product -- flue-cured tobacco -- is a 
labor-intensive skill acquired through years of experience. 
Zimbabwean commercial farmers have been developing their 
skills over generations, and assuming that any farmer with a 
plot of land and a hoe can equal their quality or quantity of 
production is naive at best. While some tobacco will be 
produced, Zimbabwe's days as the biggest producer of 
flue-cured tobacco  -- as well as the days when tobacco 
earned 30% of Zimbabwe's forex -- are finished. 
 
¶9.  Commercial farming has become a ghost industry, with 
operators few and far between, while hundreds of thousands of 
hectares of formerly productive fields lie barren and wasted 
under the husbandry of the "new farmers."  Some small-scale, 
indigenous and new commercial farmers will succeed, and some 
may even be profitable.  However, when weighed against the 
phenomenally productive and lucrative commercial farming 
sector of several years ago, even the GOZ will be 
hard-pressed to present these isolated successes as a victory. 
SULLIVAN