VZCZCXRO8011
RR RUEHAST RUEHDH RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHPB RUEHPOD RUEHSL RUEHTM
RUEHTRO
DE RUEHTC #0730 3381708
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 041708Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3535
INFO RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
RUEAEPA/HQEPA WASHDC

UNCLAS THE HAGUE 000730 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV KGHG NL
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS: SEEKING CLEAR 2010 ROADMAP FOR 
CLIMATE TALKS POST-COPENHAGEN 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Dutch will work in Copenhagen to
secure a pragmatic, operational agreement at COP-15 as
proposed by Danish PM Rasmussen. But they are concerned the
climate negotiations process will bog down after political
momentum subsides in 2010. They also fear domestic backlash
in Europe if the targets contained in a COP-15 outcome fall
far short of a pathway that limits global warming to two
degrees centigrade. END SUMMARY.

¶2. (U) EconOff met with key members of the Dutch climate
change team December 1 before they departed for Copenhagen:
Sanne Kaasjager, lead national negotiator from the Foreign
Ministry, and Gerie Jonk, mitigation group representative
from the Environment Ministry (VROM).

---------------------------------------------
STILL PUSHING FOR 30 PERCENT EU EMISSIONS CUT
---------------------------------------------

¶3. (SBU) Kaasjager said the Netherlands still wants the EU to
bump up its 2020 emissions reduction commitment from 20 to 30
percent. He acknowledged this move would not persuade other
developed countries to put forward more ambitious
commitments; the aim would be to create a more positive
atmosphere in the negotiations and encourage developing
countries to accept a deal. He said he would like to see the
EU announce the 30 percent commitment heading into the last
weekend of COP-15 as a "final push" to political leaders.

-----------------------
POST-COPENHAGEN ROADMAP
-----------------------

¶4. (SBU) Kaasjager said EU political leaders are facing a
credibility problem at COP-15. They will support a
pragmatic, operational agreement even if it falls short of
their ambitions. But they are politically vulnerable because
they sold the European public on a two degree limit for
warming. If an agreement at COP-15 drifts too far off the
two degree trajectory, it will put EU leaders in a "tough
position." To compensate, Kaasjager said the EU would push
hard to get a clear, strong timeline for treaty talks in
early 2010.

¶5. (SBU) Kaasjager said the Netherlands fears the United
States will be content with a political agreement at COP-15
and backtrack on an international legal agreement. EconOff
assured him this fear is unfounded and the United States
remains committed to expeditious work towards a legal
agreement. Kaasjager emphasized the Netherlands is extremely
preoccupied with having a 2010 roadmap before leaving
Copenhagen. During COP-15 the Dutch will seek a clear vision
of what the structure of a legal agreement will look like.
They favor a structure that "uses what we have" and preserves
the name "Kyoto" even if in practice it is adapted
substantially to accommodate U.S. and emerging economy
commitments/plans.

----------------------------------
DUTCH "FAST-START" FINANCING OFFER
----------------------------------

¶6. (SBU) Jonk said the Netherlands has proposed to the EU it
would provide 100 million Euros per year in 2010, 2011, and
2012 to fund "fast-start public support" for climate action
in developing countries. This translates to approximately
1.5 to 2 percent of the European Commission´s estimated
figure of 5 to 7 billion Euros per year needed in fast-start
financing. The Netherlands remains very concerned that
developing countries will balk at a climate deal without a
clearer picture of financial support numbers and sources.

-----
CHINA
-----

¶7. (SBU) Kaasjager said the Netherlands is currently plugging
China´s November 26 ´offer´ into various climate models to
determine how much of a deviation from Business as Usual it
represents. The Dutch preliminary impression is that China
can do more with relatively little effort.

LEVIN