VZCZCXRO2195
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #3596/01 3552233
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 212233Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9500
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEAHLA/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY
RUEABND/DEA HQS WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RHMFIUU/HQ USNORTHCOM
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC

241035
2009-12-21 22:33:00
09MEXICO3596
Embassy Mexico
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

VZCZCXRO2195
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #3596/01 3552233
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 212233Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9500
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEAHLA/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY
RUEABND/DEA HQS WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RHMFIUU/HQ USNORTHCOM
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 003596 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR RESTREPO; DEPT FOR WHA 
DAS JACOBSON, MEX DIRECTOR LEE, AND D STAFF CUE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR MASS ECON ETRD MX
SUBJECT: MEXICO: PRESIDENT CALDERONQS BOLD 
POLITICAL INITIATIVE 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: President Calderon's proposal for amending the 
Mexican Constitution with a far-reaching political initiative would 
have far reaching consequences for implementing badly needed reform. 
 In addition to allowing for direct reelection of Senators, Deputies 
and local officials, the proposal would significantly reduce the 
size of the Mexican legislature and give unforeseen new 
opportunities for the Supreme Court and for independent candidates 
in a political system hobbled by the grip of its three major 
political parties.  The initiative, prefaced in the President's 
November 22 administration mid-term speech and launched on the last 
day before the Congress begins its long holiday break, will only 
prosper if Calderon can convince an electorate preoccupied with 
economic worries that this is not just another scrum between 
political insiders.  The fight over passage will be a tough one and 
the maneuvering could complicate matters for the ascendant 
Institutional Revolutionary Party's (PRI) front-runner for 2012 by 
stimulating a call for badly needed political change in Mexico.  End 
Summary 
 
--------------------------- 
The Devil is in the Details 
--------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Calderon put forth his political initiative in an early 
morning address from the Presidential palace on December 15. The 
proposal includes the following elements: 
 
--Empowering local legislatures and the Mexico City Assembly to 
allow direct election of Mayors, local legislators and Municipal 
officials and their reelection for up to 12 years; 
 
--Providing for the reelection of federal and local legislators for 
up to 12 years; 
 
--Reducing the 128 seat senate by the 32 seats that are elected via 
the proportional system; and the 500 seat Congress by 100 seats to 
400, with 160 voted via the proportional system; 
 
--Increasing the minimum vote requirement for the registration of 
parties from two to four percent; 
 
--Providing for a citizen initiative representative that would have 
the power to propose initiatives of law before Congress; 
 
--Allowing independent candidacies for all elected positions; 
 
--Instituting a majority wins, two round electoral process for 
Presidential elections; 
 
--Allowing the Supreme Court to initiate projects of law that could 
influence debate on legal issues related to its function such as 
judicial reform (e.g., amparo system), and unconstitutional 
actions; 
 
--Allowing the executive branch to present two priority initiatives 
at the start of a new Congressional session that would require 
debate and action before the end of the session: if the legislature 
fails to act the bill would automatically become law (in the case of 
a constitutional issue it would be submitted to the people in a 
popular referendum); 
 
--Allowing the executive branch to present comments related to laws 
and the budget as approved by the congress; 
 
¶3. (SBU) Calderon had picked up the perennial theme of his National 
Action Party (PAN) on the need for political reform in his speech on 
the third anniversary of his election (November 22) with general 
references that failed to excite much enthusiasm either among the 
electorate or among the chattering class.  The new details in the 
final proposal, however, will likely attract significant attention 
from both pundits and the people, though the government will be 
hard-pressed to overcome the perception that while Mexican voters 
are focused on bread and butter issues such as economic recession, 
the discredited political class engages in an inside debate on the 
rules of its game. 
 
-------------- 
Political Tack 
-------------- 
 
MEXICO 00003596  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) The initiative could help Calderon take back some of the 
initiative after an ineffective series of political actions over the 
last several months.  By including some important new elements and 
proposing it on the eve of Congress' long holiday break, he prompts 
a debate among the intellectual elite on the need for change in 
Mexico, and provides his administration considerable latitude in 
establishing the parameters of the discussion.  Well known 
center-left political analyst Carlos Heredia, agreed that the 
proposal went farther than expected and did not discount the 
possibility that it could garner enough political support for 
eventual passage if the government is able to make the initiative 
real to normal people.  He predicted it would resonate and likely 
Qtake up considerable amount of political space in the coming 
months.Q  Heredia credited Calderon with an astute political move, 
which could attract support from political commentators and think 
tanks and likely put the opposition PRI in a difficult position of 
having to defend the extent of its internal reform. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Lukewarm Reaction from Opposition 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) In fact, initial public commentary has been lukewarm from 
the PRI, and downright critical from some quarters of the Democratic 
Revolutionary Party (PRD).  PRD President Jesus Ortega has termed 
the initiative incomplete and warned about narco- criminals taking 
over local government absent better control of electoral financing 
and reform of television monopolies.  Ortega and other PRD leaders 
have, however, recognized the need for political reform and left 
themselves an opening to tack towards support if the initiative gets 
legs.  While the PRI's coordinator in the lower house, Francisco 
Rojas, was initially unenthusiastic, characterizing the initiative 
as, Qclearly not the most important priority facing the government, 
heavyweight Senate leader Manlio Fabio Beltrones was more positive 
in comments to the Ambassador, noting his support for reform that 
would increase accountability and predictability in Mexico's 
political process.  Beltrones supports the provisions on reelection 
and decreasing the size of Congress, but only if combined with other 
elements -- such as a new requirement for Congressional confirmation 
of the President's cabinet -- that would make the proposal more 
balanced. 
 
------------------ 
Hurdles to Passage 
------------------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) Calderon has sent the proposal for initial consideration to 
the Senate, where the PAN remains, at least technically, in control. 
 Action has been referred to three separate Committees for action: 
Constitutional Issues, State Reform, and Legislative Studies.  The 
committees will debate the proposal and then vote on it before 
referring it to the Chamber of the Deputies.  Given the need to 
amend the Constitution, the proposal must receive two-thirds of 
those present in both Chambers, with a quorum requirement of fifty 
percent plus one.  Once approved in the legislature, the proposal 
must be ratified by at least 17 of the 32 State legislatures 
(including the Federal District of Mexico City). 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Calderon is clearly aiming to take back the political 
initiative, divert focus from early 2010 tax increases and the state 
of the economy, and improve the party's chances in next year's ten 
gubernatorial races.  While his proposal did not receive major 
attention from the press after his mid-term speech, Secretary of 
Governance Gomez Mont focused much of his attention during his 
recent lunch with Assistant Secretary Valenzuela on the political 
reform initiative.  A reform of this nature would be game-changing 
as it would open up debate on a whole host of other reforms 
energy, anti-trust, legal and judicial Q that are badly needed if 
Mexico is to strengthen its economy, become a more strategic partner 
of the U.S. and retain its leadership in the region. End Comment 
 
PASCUAL