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RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
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RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 000339 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2020 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR RS
SUBJECT: COMMUNIST DUMA DEPUTY PREDICTS RETURN OF PUTIN 
PRESIDENCY IN 2012 
 
REF: 09 MOSCOW 2179 
 
Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Susan Elliott.  Reason:  1. 
4 (b), (d). 
 
 
¶1. (C)  Summary:  Communist Party (KPRF) State Duma Deputy 
Sergei Levchenko dismissed KPRF's recent cooperation with 
Solidarity at the January 30 protest in Kaliningrad as 
insignificant, but expressed optimism about KPRF's chances in 
upcoming elections due to United Russia's increasing 
unpopularity.  On the Tandem, he claimed that Medvedev 
offered only lip service regarding the opposition's 
participation in politics.  He expected the return of 
Vladimir Putin as president in 2012, and a quick retreat from 
politics for Dmitriy Medvedev.  Levchenko also updated us on 
the political situation in Irkutsk, stating that Putin's 
supporters pushed to reopen the Baikalsk Pulp and Paper Mill, 
the Communists had a shot at winning the Irkutsk mayoral 
elections, and large protests over communal services tariffs 
had been taking place in the Irkutsk region.  End Summary. 
 
KPRF Cooperating with Solidarity 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C)  During a frank February 8 discussion with Communist 
Party (KPRF) State Duma Deputy from Irkutsk Oblast Sergei 
Levchenko, we gleaned the KPRF perspective on a range of 
political issues.  Levchenko admitted that KPRF and 
Solidarity cooperated during the recent protests in 
Kaliningrad.  He stressed, however, that though the two 
groups share similar complaints about the government, this 
does not mean they are merging, as is occasionally reputed by 
the media.  Levchenko agreed that Solidarity has potential as 
a political party, but thought it was poorly represented in 
the provinces.  He does not think Solidarity has been visible 
enough in the run-up to the upcoming March 14 elections 
(NOTE: Solidarity members have not registered for any 
regional races.  End Note).  Levchenko also predicted that, 
due to the current economic crisis, in the upcoming March 
elections, KPRF would fare better than it has in the past. 
 
Medvedev's Remarks on Opposition's Poor Visibility 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶3. (C)  Levchenko told us he thought that President 
Medvedev's January 22 comments at the State Council regarding 
the opposition were just lip service.  Medvedev feigned 
dismay over opposition parties' poor visibility and 
representation in the regions while half of the deputies in 
regional parliaments are from United Russia.  Levchenko 
argued that Medvedev made such a statement only to please 
people, and that he is not serious about creating a more 
democratic electoral structure.  Levchenko stated that 
Medvedev's proposal to lower the bar for earning seats in 
local Dumas to five percent would pass, but that the change 
would have little real effect.  He saw the bill as window 
dressing, not real political reform.  In his view, "there has 
been a lot of talk about the democratic process, but nothing 
is really changing." 
 
Putin as President, Again 
------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C)  Levchenko was confident that Putin would take over 
the Russian presidency in 2012.  He cited Putin's high 
approval rating and said that he is popular enough to win 
easily.  With voters facing serious economic uncertainty, the 
country would look to Putin for leadership.  Levchenko 
believes that after Putin returns as president in 2012, 
Medvedev will simply disappear from the public spotlight. 
 
Latest Political Situation in Irkutsk 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C)  Levchenko told us that Putin's decision to reopen the 
Baikalsk Pulp and Paper Mill is one of the top political 
issues in the Irkutsk oblast (Ref A).  He said that Putin's 
supporters aggressively pushed to reopen the mill.  In 
general, there are few organizations in the region which are 
fighting back, especially considering rising unemployment in 
the city of Baikalsk.  Levchenko thought that if Putin did 
not reopen the mill, the unemployed would have held more 
public protests. 
 
¶6. (C)  The upcoming March 14 elections in Irkutsk City and 
Bratsk both promise to be serious campaigns.  Current Irkutsk 
City mayor Vladimir Yakubovsky, in power since November 1997, 
decided not to participate in the elections and has already 
 
MOSCOW 00000339  002 OF 002 
 
 
left the area.  It is not clear, however, that the next mayor 
will be from United Russia.  Levchenko argued that United 
Russia has made many mistakes that have created substantial 
negative feelings among residents.  Levchenko is also head of 
the local KPRF branch in Irkutsk oblast.  He thought that 
KPRF's Viktor Kondrashov, a successful businessman and 
philanthropist, had a serious chance. 
 
¶7. (C)  A third political issue in Irkutsk (and elsewhere in 
Russia) is the recent 40 percent increase in communal 
services tariffs, which have spurred two recent protests. 
Levchenko told us that on February 7, the Communist Party led 
a demonstration of five thousand people protesting in the 
city of Angarsk, 50km North West of Irkutsk City.  More than 
1000 people protested against these tariffs, claiming that 
they simply could not afford to pay their bills.  Russian 
website grani.ru displayed photos of the protesters, wrapped 
in heavy fur coats, demonstrating out in the cold Siberian 
weather.  Pensioners in the region have been especially vocal 
about this topic as government social payments have not risen 
to meet higher costs.  Levchenko was clear that these 
protests were not aimed at greater political freedom or 
economic modernization; the driving force was simply an 
increase in tariffs past the point that residents could 
afford to pay. 
 
Biographic Note 
--------------- 
 
¶8. (C)  Levchenko is rarely in Moscow -- usually only once 
every two months -- and often only stays in the capital for 
one day.  He does not speak English, but is open and engaging 
in Russian.  When we were denied access to the State Duma 
because his office had misfiled paperwork for our meeting, he 
suggested crossing the street to a cafe.  Levchenko was 
gracious with his time and did not seem to be in any rush to 
return to the Duma, despite his limited time on the ground in 
the capital. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9. (C)  Levchenko gave a unique and credible perspective on 
politics at both the federal and regional levels.  When Putin 
comes to the rescue to resolve acute economic problems such 
as the Baikalsk Pulp and Paper Mill, it bolsters his appeal 
with the masses.  While protests like those in the city of 
Angarsk highlight dissatisfaction with the government, they 
are largely contained and do not pose a national threat.  We 
do, however, anticipate more protests in the coming months, 
especially heading into the election season and the national 
Day of Dissent in the end of March. 
Beyrle