VZCZCXRO0851
OO RUEHPA
DE RUEHOS #0077/01 0541235
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O R 231234Z FEB 10
FM AMCONSUL LAGOS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0056
INFO ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000077 
 
SIPDIS 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, AND INR/AA 
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/23 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ECON SOCI NI
SUBJECT: ASSISTANT SECRETARY CARSON MEETS WITH LAGOS BUSINESS LEADERS 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Blair, Donna M., CG, State, Lagos; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) 
 
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   SUMMARY 
 
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¶1. (C)  Assistant Secretary Carson met with Lagos business 
community leaders on February 7.  Per these sources, Governor 
Fashola of Lagos State is on the verge of being impeached despite 
bringing new roads, hospitals, and schools to Lagos.  The Governor 
does not pay attention to the patronage networks.  Vice President 
Jonathan is neither a risk taker nor an activist but it is better 
to have him than no one in the seat of power.  Isolate and monitor 
communities in the Niger Delta to force them to become well run. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
¶2. (C)  Assistant Secretary (A/S) Carson met with members of the 
Lagos Business community at the home of Pat Utomi on February 7. 
Present at the meeting were the following:  Former Presidential 
candidate and Dean of Lagos Business School (LBS) Pat Utomi; LBS 
economics professor Dr. Doyin Salami; Financial Derivatives CEO 
Bismarck Rewane, Former Chairman of the Nigerian Economic Summit 
Group Mohammed Hayat-Deen; Special Assistant to the Assistant 
Secretary; Lagos Economic Officer; and, Consul General Blair. 
 
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FASHOLA - MAN OF THE FUTURE OR MIRAGE? 
 
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¶3. (C)  Assistant Secretary Carson began the conversation by 
mentioning that he had just met with Lagos State Governor Fashola 
the night before and that the Governor had a growing reputation in 
Washington as a leader of vision, integrity, and was hardworking 
and honest.  Fashola is seen as trying to make a difference.  Is 
this the true future leader of Lagos, a man with staying power, or 
just a mirage, the A/S queried?  Fashola deserves a lot of credit 
but it must be kept in perspective, according to Utomi.  Most of 
the plans that have been put forth by Fashola originated with his 
predecessor Governor Tinubu.  Fashola merely carried on what had 
already been started. 
 
 
 
¶4. (C)  When Fashola was put into power by Tinubu not all agreed 
that Fashola was the best choice.  He seemed to lack charisma but 
in the end he was smarter than everyone else, per Utomi.  Fashola 
stayed faithful to Tinubu's development plan once in power. 
Fashola is not considered a politician, per Salami.  Government 
patronage is part of the game in Nigeria.  Fashola awards most 
projects to private parties because they are competent.  Can 
Fashola stay faithful without the patronage of Tinubu, the A/S 
queried? 
 
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PLAYING THE POLITICAL GAME IN LAGOS 
 
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¶5. (C)  Fashola cannot survive and should not contest in the next 
election, according to Doyin Salami.  Tinubu is working behind the 
scenes to devise a method to impeach Fashola.  Impeaching is the 
easiest way to force out Fashola because it makes him politically 
irrelevant.  If Fashola is pushed out he could come back at a later 
date.  If Fashola is impeached or pushed aside that will bring an 
end to good governance and forward progress in Lagos, the A/S 
commented.  Fashola has been committed to increasing the 
infrastructure of Lagos by building water and sewage systems, roads 
and other large projects that take a long time to complete A/S 
Carson observed.  The light rail and road project from Badagry to 
Lagos will take another two to four years to complete, if Fashola 
 
LAGOS 00000077  002 OF 003 
 
 
is forced out will his successor complete it, the A/S asked?  The 
project will be finished as long as the PDP does not take power in 
Lagos, stated Utomi. 
 
 
 
¶6. (C)  Fashola's Action Congress party is looking to the 2015 
national elections.  They need to raise money but the political 
machine is not in place with Fashola, stated Rewane.  The only 
leverage they have is if they act now and put in place a candidate 
more to their liking.  If Fashola walks away from the Governor's 
office without being impeached he will become a "kingmaker" claimed 
Rewane.  Becoming a kingmaker is not possible once impeached. 
Fashola should finish his term and "play the game, declared Salami. 
If Fashola can get the support of the Federal Government he will be 
able to complete his term without a "monkey on his back" and his 
personal reputation intact, continued Salami.  Tinubu will most 
likely name the Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly 
Adeyemi Ikuforiji as Fashola's replacement.  By early March, we 
will know how this game has played itself out. 
 
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IT IS BETTER TO HAVE A PERSON THAN HAVE A GOAT 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
 
 
¶7. (C)  "It is better to have a person than have a goat.  At least 
you can talk to the person," suggested Hayatu-deen.  It is better 
to have someone in the seat of power that you can say yes or no to. 
When no one is in power, there is a void.  Having Jonathan in power 
is a big difference from having no one according to Hayatu-deen. 
Vice President Goodluck Jonathan is not seen as a risk taker, per 
Salami.  He will not be an activist, stated Haytu-deen.  He will 
keep the system from crashing, added Rewane.  The 2011 elections 
will be just as bad as 2007, stated Salami.  VP Jonathan must rise 
to the occasion and cannot resign or quit, Utomi added. 
 
 
 
¶8. (C)  There is no reason why Nigeria cannot feed itself; much 
less the entire West African region stated the A/S.  An official 
Nigerian delegation has travelled to Malaysia to research palm oil. 
It was not clear why a country that has produced palm oil for so 
long would undertake such an endeavor.  The average Nigerian 
consumes 2.2 liters of milk per year, Rewane added.  The average 
Saudi consumes 50 liters per year.  A dairy cow costs 500,000 naira 
(USD 3,300) and produces 20 liters of milk a day.  The political 
class is not focused on economic growth, concluded Rewane.  Has 
Nigeria lost its way, Hayatu-deen wondered?  It is a question of 
violence, responded Utomi.  "If I were to blow up the Falomo bridge 
(NOTE: a main artery in Lagos END NOTE.) nothing would happen," 
suggested Rewane. 
 
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NIGER DELTA CYCLE 
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¶9. (C)  How is the cycle of the Niger Delta broken, queried the 
A/S?  Ring fence areas, was Rewane's response.  Supervise 
elections; the elections are only as good as the people running 
them.  The Niger Delta used to have proper elections a long time 
ago, it is possible to have that again.  The recent elections in 
Anambra were considered a success because they were done in 
isolation. 
 
 
 
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 COMMENT 
 
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¶10. (C)  Governor Fashola is highly respected and loved by the 
people of Lagos for fixing roads, building hospitals and schools 
 
LAGOS 00000077  003 OF 003 
 
 
and paying attention to an infrastructure system that has been 
ignored for much too long.  Fashola's latest rail and road project 
to the Nigeria-Benin border has perhaps taken him a step too far. 
He does not play by the longstanding "rules," Nigerian style, and 
the patronage network does not like that.  Hearing the group talk 
about the political machinations going on around Fashola was like 
seeing the underbelly of the Nigerian political world exposed. 
This is the festering problem that is so inherent in Nigeria and 
the very source of most of the problems.  Where one was hopeful for 
Lagos, and Nigeria, this hope suffered a setback after this 
meeting.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
 
¶11. (U)  A/S Carson did not have an opportunity to clear this cable 
before departing post. 
BLAIR