VZCZCXRO9720
OO RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0222/01 0401321
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O R 091320Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0149
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA FWD

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000222 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI SU
SUBJECT: CONCEPT OF POPULAR CONSULTATIONS TAKING SHAPE 
 
REF: 09 KHARTOUM 1198 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: On February 7 Poloff met with members of the 
steering committee for the popular consultations of Southern 
Kordofan and Blue Nile, who expressed unity across ethnic and party 
lines in their goal of taking greater power from the center to 
benefit their marginalized states.  Attendees presented a 
reasonable timeline for popular consultations, and a fairly clear 
picture of how popular consultations will be conducted.  They also 
displayed optimism about the process tempered by a grasp of the 
challenges involved.  The vague concept of popular consultations 
dictated by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) as a means to 
"ascertain the views of the people" of Southern Kordofan and Blue 
Nile has begun to take shape with the promise of empowering two of 
Sudan's most marginalized states.  If well-managed, and responded 
to in good faith, popular consultations in Southern Kordofan and 
Blue Nile can serve as an example of how to address Sudan's 
perennial conflicts, increase stability, and benefit the majority 
of its people.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
---------------------------------- 
 
Timeline for Popular Consultations 
 
---------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) On February 7 Poloff met with members of the steering 
committee for the popular consultations of Southern Kordofan and 
Blue Nile.  Attendees explained that the first step toward popular 
consultations is the impending endorsement of a technical committee 
for each state by the governor of that state.  In the period prior 
to elections, these technical committees will be charged with 
conducting a campaign to raise awareness of popular consultations 
in the two states.  The technical committees will also consult 
candidates for the two states' legislative assemblies respecting 
their positions on, and commitment to, popular consultations. 
Concurrently, members of the steering committee will draft a 
concept paper, describing how popular consultations should be 
conducted and suggesting questions that should be asked about the 
CPA during the process.  Additional questions are expected to come 
out of public meetings held during the technical committees' 
awareness campaign. 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) Within two months after elections, each state will form a 
commission to conduct popular consultations as called for in the 
Popular Consultations Law.  These commissions have three months to 
conduct the field work of consulting the populations of their 
respective states regarding their views on the CPA.  The 
commissions will then develop a report based on the information 
they received and send it to their respective state legislatures 
for approval.  Attendees acknowledged the challenges presented by 
the fact that the time for conducting field work falls within 
Sudan's rainy season, and said that this makes it all the more 
important to do as much advance work as possible. 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) Steering committee members in attendance agreed that 
budgeting for the popular consultations is a state-level 
responsibility.  Attendees noted that both state assemblies have 
passed estimated budgets for 2010 that include funds to conduct 
popular consultations.  Attendees added they also anticipate 
international donor assistance. 
 
 
 
---------------------- 
 
Who Will be Consulted? 
 
---------------------- 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Steering committee members said they expect the process of 
getting people's views on the CPA to take varied forms, based on 
what is appropriate for the venue.  Thus in a village where 
 
KHARTOUM 00000222  002 OF 003 
 
 
literacy is limited, a town hall style meeting, in which villagers 
can come forward and speak about their aspirations may be 
appropriate.  In another context, villagers may be read a list of 
questions and be asked to express their approval or disapproval by 
a show of hands.  In yet another context, literate individuals may 
be asked to fill out a questionnaire.  Attendees explained that 
while every person will have the opportunity to respond to all 
questions, participants need not answer every one. 
 
 
 
------------------------ 
 
What Will They Be Asked? 
 
------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) The questions asked will vary based on the issue 
addressed.   For example, on the question of what is an appropriate 
percentage of oil revenues that the oil producing state should 
receive, attendees stated that the result could be a simple 
numerical average of all responses received.  Regarding power 
sharing, attendees agreed that government positions, including 
ministries, and positions in the civil service, the military, and 
the national security services, should be allocated on a state by 
state basis, based on a percentage of each state's population. 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) Attendees noted the importance of properly recording and 
representing "the will of the people" as represented by the 
responses received.  To this end, attendees noted that all answers 
received during popular consultations will be recorded and stored 
in a data base for reference.  Attendees acknowledged, however, 
that the questions asked will play a major role in shaping the 
answers received.  For example, a question on wealth sharing could 
address only oil revenues, or it could be much broader, addressing 
the share of revenues a state should receive for minerals, timber, 
electrical power, and any other resources extracted from that 
state.  Attendees also noted that the questions asked will be 
intended to educate participants both as to what they currently 
receive and how similar issues of sharing between the state and 
federal level are handled in other countries.  Attendees focused on 
the fact that while Southern Kordofan currently receives two 
percent of revenues derived from oil extracted in that state, 
Indonesia's Aceh province receives a seventy percent share, a 
result achieved after having undergone a process of consultation 
and negotiation with Indonesia's central government. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
Negotiating the People's Aspirations with the Presidency 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) Attendees were a diverse group, with participants 
including members of the National Congress Party (NCP) and the 
Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), Nuba, Misseriya, and 
Funj ethnic groups, and residents of Southern Kordofan and Blue 
Nile.  Regardless of ethnicity or party affiliation, attendees saw 
themselves united in an effort to transfer power from the center to 
benefit the people of their states.  Attendees did disagree 
slightly on the approach that the two states should take in 
negotiations with the presidency.  One attendee emphasized the need 
to set realistic expectations and present realistic demands, while 
another disagreed, stating that the people of Southern Kordofan and 
Blue Nile should be very ambitious and leave it to the central 
government to be realistic.  All attendees agreed that the central 
government must be "less greedy."  They also agreed that they have 
little faith in the central government.  They said this is not 
going to change regardless of who is elected in April because "the 
center in Sudan always wishes to centralize power." 
 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) In spite of this mistrust, all attendees expressed 
optimism about the process and likely outcomes.  They noted that 
 
KHARTOUM 00000222  003 OF 003 
 
 
they look to the UN and members of the international community to 
support the process and help ensure that the presidency negotiates 
with the states in good faith.  Attendees agreed, however, that if 
a reasonable compromise cannot be achieved, all options for the 
future status of the states remain open, including breaking with 
the north and joining the south.  (Note: This option is not 
included in the CPA. End Note.) 
 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) Comment: The optimism and unity of purpose displayed by 
attendees across ethnic and party lines are encouraging.  Popular 
consultations may be the CPA's most unambiguously positive process. 
There are probably few outside of Khartoum's inner circle who will 
argue that Sudan will not benefit from devolution of power and 
wealth to its marginalized peripheries.  While the state-level 
elites conducting and overseeing the popular consultations will 
largely control what questions are asked and how the answers are 
interpreted, the process still promises to be broadly inclusive and 
empowering.  It is also noteworthy that the attendees look on 
popular consultations as a means to improve relations with Sudan's 
center, rather than as a means to independence.  If well-managed, 
and responded to in good faith, popular consultations in Southern 
Kordofan and Blue Nile can serve as an example of how to address 
Sudan's perennial conflicts, increase stability, and benefit the 
majority of its people.  End Comment. 
WHITEHEAD