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FM AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI
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INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DJIBOUTI 000129 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/03 
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM DJ
SUBJECT: DJIBOUTI POLITICAL UPDATE: REGIONAL GOVERNOR SHUFFLE; MORE 
SUPPORT FOR GUELLEH THIRD TERM 
 
REF: 09 DJIBOUTI 1405; 09 DJIBOUTI 1417 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: J. Swan, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY.  In a rare shakeup, the national Council of 
Ministers named three new regional governors on January 26.  Two of 
the three new appointees are from the same sub-clan as Aden Robleh 
Awaleh, the only ruling coalition partner to have publicly rejected 
a constitutional amendment allowing President Guelleh to run for a 
third term in office in 2011 (ref A).  Beyond their ethnic ties, 
the new faces bring relative youth to the regional positions--not 
always an advantage in traditional Djiboutian culture, which tends 
to associate age with wisdom and youth with inexperience. 
Meanwhile the ethnic Afar-dominated FRUD ("Front for the 
Restoration of Democracy and Unity"), President Guelleh's most 
important coalition partner, has still yet to set a date for its 
party congress, and is reportedly deep in internal party 
negotiations over whether to support a third term for Guelleh, and 
what to ask for in return.  While waiting for the FRUD, Guelleh 
picked up another endorsement for a constitutional amendment from a 
small coalition partner, bringing the count in the five-party 
grouping to three for, one against, and one (FRUD) undecided.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
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ONE MORE COALITION PARTNER PUBLICLY 
 
SUPPORTS THIRD TERM FOR GUELLEH 
 
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¶2.  (SBU) During an extraordinary party congress held January 20, 
the PSD ("Social Democratic Party") declared support for a 
constitutional amendment allowing President Guelleh to run for a 
third term in office in 2011.  The PSD is a minor partner in 
Guelleh's five-party ruling UMP ("Union for a Presidential 
Majority") coalition.  It currently seats party President Ahmed 
Boulaleh Barreh as its only deputy in the 65-seat National 
Assembly.  A second seat has remained vacant since the 2009 death 
of late PSD President Moumin Bahdon Farah.  President Guelleh's RPP 
("Popular Rally for Progress") newspaper "Le Progres" featured 
prominent coverage of the PSD congress, including verbatim 
reproductions of PSD resolutions calling for a constitutional 
amendment and a third Guelleh candidacy. 
 
 
 
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FRUD LEADERSHIP CONSULTS BASE 
 
------------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶3. (C) The RPP's largest coalition partner--FRUD-is engaged in 
intensive internal consultations over its leaders' desire to 
support a constitutional amendment and third term for Guelleh, in 
exchange for an increased share of power and positions (ref B). 
Senior FRUD parliamentarian and Chairman of the Foreign Affairs 
Committee Youssouf Moussa Dawaleh told Ambassador January 19 that 
he was confident the rank and file would agree--but, in the 
Djiboutian way, only after lengthy consultation.  The FRUD party 
congress, planned for December, has been deferred until later in 
the spring to permit these discussions. 
 
 
 
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-- 
 
OPPOSITION NEWSLETTER INCREASES CIRCULATION 
 
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--- 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) Aden Robleh Awaleh's PND ("National Democratic Party"), 
the only ruling coalition member so far to oppose a third term for 
Guelleh, continues to publish a bi-weekly newsletter.  Demand from 
 
DJIBOUTI 00000129  002 OF 003 
 
 
readership of "La Republique" is reportedly high enough that the 
editorial staff decided to double the number of copies produced, 
from 500 to 1000.  The latest edition (January 28) features 
criticism of economic development projects perceived to be stalled 
(a long-rumored refinery, automobile and heavy equipment free zone, 
and international airport), and Awaleh's defense of his record as 
the "architect of Djiboutian independence." 
 
 
 
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RULING RPP ALSO STILL CHURNING 
 
OVER THIRD TERM 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶5. (C) Two senior RPP ministers separately confirmed to Ambassador 
January 13 and January 25 that even within the ruling party there 
is still not full consensus on a third term for the President. 
Minister of Health Abdallah Abdillahi Miguil said there is 
considerable Issa dissent over plans for a third term, with 
minority Issak and Gadabursi more enthusiastic.  He warned that 
pushing for Afar support could lead to a "rupture" within the FRUD, 
potentially putting the whole coalition at risk.  He doubted that a 
referendum on a third term would pass, except perhaps through 
"fatalism." 
 
 
 
¶6. (C) Minister of Interior Yacin Elmi Bouh, who is widely reported 
to be vying to replace Guelleh, did not speak of his personal plans 
but concurred that it could be difficult to secure a majority in a 
referendum on a third term.  He said the RPP Central Committee has 
written to Guelleh to urge that any amendment be orchestrated 
through the National Assembly rather than a referendum.  Bouh 
expected a meeting of the 150-person RPP Central Committee to be 
held in March and to clarify the President's position on the third 
term. 
 
 
 
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REGIONAL GOVERNOR SHAKEUP COURTS KEY CONSTITUENCIES 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
---------- 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) In a fairly rare shuffle of often long-serving regional 
officials, the Council of Ministers appointed three new regional 
Prefets on January 26.  (NOTE.  In Djibouti's French-influenced 
political system, each of the country's six administrative 
districts is overseen by a regional governor (Prefet).  Prefets are 
appointed by the central government, and report directly to the 
Minister of the Interior.  After Regional Councils were elected for 
the first time in 2006, Prefets transferred limited 
responsibilities--such as issuance of civil documents--to the new, 
locally-elected officials.  However, the Prefets remain the 
undisputed authorities on most official matters, and are often 
acknowledged as final arbiters in informal disagreements between 
families and groups.  END NOTE.) 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) The three new Prefets are notable for their relative 
youth, as well as for their ethnic affiliations.  The new Prefet of 
Dikhil--known as the country's "Region of Unity" for its mix of 
Somalis and Afars--is an ethnic Afar, but married to a Somali 
woman.  He replaces the dean of the Prefet corps, a sixteen-year 
veteran and an ethnic Issa.  The two new Prefets of Djibouti City 
and Ali Sabieh are both ethnic Issa/Ohdagop--the same subclan as 
Aden Robleh Awaleh, the President of the only ruling coalition 
partner to have publicly rejected a constitutional amendment 
allowing President Guelleh to run for a third term (ref A). 
Following established practice, the Council of Ministers approved 
new technical advisor positions for the former Prefets of Ali 
Sabieh and Dikhil, within the Ministry of the Interior. 
 
DJIBOUTI 00000129  003 OF 003 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION ON NEW PREFET OF DIKHIL, MOHAMED 
CHEIKO HASSAN.  (Afar/Adarassoul).  A Dikhil native, Hassan began 
working in the Ministry of the Interior in 1980 after completing a 
high school education.  He moved up the ranks in the Ministry, with 
promotions from neighborhood clerk to deputy neighborhood chief, 
neighborhood chief, and then Deputy Prefet of Djibouti City.  In 
2009, he began serving as interim Prefet of Djibouti City.  Hassan 
is married to an ethnic Somali (Issa/Fourlaba), with whom he has 
six children.  His father was a well-known advisor to the former 
Prime Minister.  Hassan speaks fluent Afar, Somali, and French.  He 
replaces former Dikhil Prefet Moussa Djama Guedi (Issa/Fourlaba), 
who was named Director of General Administration in the Ministry of 
the Interior. 
 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION ON NEW PREFET OF ALI-SABIEH, 
MOUKTAR ILTIREH WAISS. (Issa/Ohdagop).  After completing studies in 
administration and social economy in France, Waiss served a brief 
stint as part of the Presidency staff before becoming an assistant 
to the Mayor of Djibouti in 2005.  Waiss was formerly married to a 
French woman with whom he had two children, but is now separated; 
his former wife remains in France.  While he has good family 
connections to Ali Sabieh, Waiss is seen as relatively young and 
inexperienced.  He replaces former Ali Sabieh Prefet Ibrahim 
Soubaneh Rayaleh (Issa/Wardiq), who was named technical counselor 
to the Minister of the Interior. 
 
 
 
¶11. (SBU) BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATON ON NEW PREFET OF DJIBOUTI CITY, 
ABOUBAKER DAHER AOUALEH.  (Issa/Ohdagop).  Aoualeh holds a French 
master's degree in physics, and began his career in the Ministry of 
Education as a teacher of mathematics and physics at Fukuzawa 
middle school.  He was promoted to deputy principal of Fukuzawa, 
and then to principal of Balbala high school in Djibouti City.  In 
1999 he became a member of the RPP, and campaigned for President 
Guelleh.  He resigned from his post at Balbala high school in2007 
after a disagreement with the Minister of Education.  Waiss is 
married with four children to Fayrouz Ahmed Houssein, the Director 
of Arab Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.  He replaces 
former ad interim Djibouti City Prefet Mohamed Cheiko Hassan, who 
was appointed Prefet of Dikhil. 
 
 
 
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COMMENT 
 
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¶12. (C) While the ruling party's newsletter acerbically maligns 
Aden Robleh Awaleh, President Guelleh is also courting Awaleh's 
ethnic constituency with honey.  Djibouti's carefully-balanced 
multi-ethnic coalition functions on the premise that each group has 
its own set of champions looking out for its interests at the 
national level.  By giving two additional prominent positions to 
ethnic Issa/Ohdagops, Guelleh's administration may hope that the 
Ohdagop group will decide to stick with real benefits under the 
present coalition, rather than support Awaleh and try for an even 
greater share of the spoils.  While appointing an ethnic Afar as 
Prefet of Dikhil makes sense in that mixed community, calculations 
of how to win the support of the FRUD--an ethnic-Afar party--may 
also have helped sway the nomination.  END COMMENT. 
SWAN