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PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHDM #0170/01 0561405
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 251405Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7423
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAMASCUS 000170 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR MILLER; PARIS FOR NOBLES 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2020 
TAGS: KDEM KPAL PHUM PREF PREL SOCI SY IZ
SUBJECT: "WE ARE READY": IRAQI DIPLOMATS AND ELECTION 
OFFICIALS MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS FOR ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. DAMASCUS 57 
     ¶B. DAMASCUS 77 
     ¶C. STATE 17254 
 
Classified By: CDA Charles Hunter for Reasons 
1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Following weeks of discussions with SARG 
ministries, the Iraqi Embassy and the Iraqi Independent High 
Electoral Commission (IHEC) reported they would be ready to 
facilitate voting by Iraqi refugees in Syria in the Iraqi 
legislative elections on March 5-7.  However, confusion over 
some key details of the voting raised doubts about these 
optimistic statements.  IHEC opened an office on one of 
Damascus' principal avenues last week, and Arab diplomats 
reported Iraqi election officials were working around the 
clock to organize polling sites and get the word out among 
Iraqi refugees.  Iraqi diplomats said the SARG had been 
largely cooperative with the embassy and IHEC, despite 
strained relations between the two capitals.  But Iraqi 
diplomats remained worried the SARG was attempting to 
influence the outcome of the voting in Syria.  The Iraqi 
Embassy reported Vice President Tariq al-Hashmi planned to 
visit Damascus early next week in an attempt to drum up 
support among Iraqi refugees here.  Iraqi refugees and NGOs 
working with them related that most refugees remained 
apathetic about the upcoming elections.  While expecting low 
voter turnout, observers believe the large Sunni community 
here is likely to vote against parties supporting Prime 
Minister Nouri al-Maliki.  END SUMMARY. 
 
"WE WILL BE READY" 
 
¶2. (C) Iraqi Embassy Political Chief Berivan Dosky and Media 
Attache Ahmed Ubaid told us February 24 the embassy was 
confident voting among Iraqi refugees in Syria would go off 
smoothly March 5-7.  The statement comes after weeks of 
discussions between IHEC representatives and the SARG, 
including the Ministry of Interior, intelligence officials, 
and the police.  While Iraqi diplomats had expressed concern 
recently about the lack of progress in organizing the 
absentee balloting (refs A, B), Dosky stated she was now 
confident logistical planning was proceeding on schedule. 
"We will be ready.  We will make sure that all Iraqis with 
valid identification are able to vote, and that they only 
vote once," Dosky declared. 
 
¶3. (C) The Iraqi diplomats reported the SARG had been largely 
cooperative with the embassy and IHEC officials in logistical 
preparation for the election, despite the frosty relations 
between Damascus and Baghdad.  Referring to Syrian 
assumptions the largely Sunni Iraqi refugee population in 
Syria will support opponents of Prime Minister Maliki, Dosky 
said, "We think the Syrians are anxious to have the voting go 
well because they think the refugees will vote for Syria's 
preferred candidates." 
 
IHEC OPENS DAMASCUS OFFICE 
 
¶4. (C) Last week, IHEC opened its offices on the Autostrade, 
one of Damascus' principal avenues, in preparation for the 
voting.  The office is headed by IHEC official Haidar Zaidi. 
Iraqi diplomats said IHEC and embassy officials were working 
"around the clock" to finalize logistical preparations and 
get the word out among Iraqi refugees regarding the locations 
of polling places.  Syrian officials were assisting IHEC by 
providing space for the polling sites and security, but the 
SARG was not providing any funding for the balloting. 
According to media contacts, IHEC officials proposed opening 
some 75 voting stations around the country; after 
negotiations with the Syrians, the number will now be closer 
to 40. 
 
CONFUSION REMAINS OVER SOME DETAILS 
 
¶5. (C) Despite the confidence expressed by the Iraqi Embassy 
and IHEC, confusion remained over some key details.  Ubaid 
reported that based on a written agreement with the SARG, 36 
polling sites would be opened (32 in Damascus, and 4 in 
Aleppo).  He said IHEC had requested polling sites in the 
northeastern cities of Qamishli and Hassaka, but the Syrians 
had refused.  Instead, the SARG offered opening additional 
polling sites in Aleppo at which Iraqis in northeastern Syria 
could vote.  Ubaid expressed frustration that Zaidi was 
telling diplomats that 55 polling sites would be opened, 
including in the central Syrian cities of Homs and Hama.  An 
Egyptian diplomat reported an IHEC official said there would 
be 167 sites opened on election day.  "We still need to work 
out some of these details," Dosky admitted. 
 
¶6. (C) Iraqi diplomats and IHEC officials also contradicted 
each other regarding whether voters outside Iraq would vote 
for seats specifically slotted for "out-of-country Iraqis," 
or would be voting for candidates running in their home 
districts in Iraq.  In mid-January, Iraqi diplomats said they 
understood Iraqi refugees would cast ballots for 15 seats 
that have been allocated to Iraqi refugees.  On February 24, 
however, IHEC officials reported "out-of-country Iraqis" 
would vote for candidates from their home districts. 
Undermining confidence in the embassy's more optimistic 
statements, Dosky said the embassy had been unable to confirm 
the exact method of voting.  "This has been confusing for us, 
too," she related. 
 
¶7.  (C) The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees' 
(UNHCR) Syria office will monitor the elections, as will two 
international NGOs including the U.S.-based International 
Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFEC).  Ubaid said IHEC is 
also employing the assistance of "international advisors" in 
Syria from Romania and Sweden.  Per ref. C, Post will offer 
personnel to monitor election day activities. 
 
WORRIED ABOUT SARG INFLUENCE 
 
¶8. (C) While praising SARG cooperation with IHEC in 
organizing the balloting, Dosky reported the GOI remained 
concerned the SARG would attempt to influence the voting. 
Iraqi diplomats said they believed the Syrians were funneling 
money provided by Saudi Arabia to the campaigns of Iyad 
Allawi and other Maliki opponents.  "The Syrians don't have 
money, so they are giving Saudi money to Iraqis here trying 
to increase voter turnout for their preferred candidates," 
Dosky complained.  Despite these concerns, the Iraqi 
diplomats acknowledged that Iraqi refugees in Syria, who are 
largely Sunni, were expected to vote for candidates opposed 
to Prime Minister Maliki and who were friendlier to Syria. 
 
HASHMI HEADS TO DAMASCUS AS NGOS PREDICT LOW TURNOUT 
 
¶9. (C) An advance team for Vice President Tariq al-Hashmi met 
with Iraqi Embassy officials earlier this week to discuss 
Hashmi's plans to visit Damascus next week.  Dosky said the 
embassy was preparing for a visit between March 1 and 3, and 
that Hashmi planned on meeting President Asad and drumming up 
support among Iraqi refugees.  "He is coming in his capacity 
as an advocate for his political party," Ubaid stressed. 
Hashmi's planned trip follows visits by other Iraqi 
politicians, including Allawi, Ammar al-Hakim, and Saleh 
al-Mutlaq, to Syria in the last few months. 
 
¶10. (C) Despite the candidates' attempts to garner support in 
Syria, Iraqi refugees and the NGOs who work with them 
reported widespread apathy among Iraqis towards the 
elections.  During a January town hall meeting, several 
refugees stated they had lost faith in Iraqi politicians and 
did not plan to participate in the elections.  Samer Lahem, 
who coordinates Iraqi refugee assistance programs for the 
Eastern Orthodox Patriarchate, told us February 23 the Iraqis 
he worked with rarely discussed the elections "because they 
are not taking them too seriously."  Lahem predicted low 
voter turnout among Iraqi refugees.  Representatives from 
other NGOs such as the International Rescue Committee (IRC) 
and the International Medical Corps (IMC) made similar 
predictions, as did a visiting delegation of British 
officials from the United Kingdom's Department for 
International Development. 
 
¶11. (C) While estimates of the number of Iraqi refugees in 
Syria vary widely, from a January GOI estimate of 200,000 to 
SARG statements ranging from 800,000 to 1.5 million, Dosky 
said the Iraqi Embassy believed there were about 400,000 
Iraqis currently in Syria.  "Among those, I don't expect a 
very large number to vote, definitely less than half," she 
opined.  An Iraqi young man working illegally at a Damascus 
cafe agreed.  "I'm not paying attention to this at all," he 
related. 
 
¶12. (C) COMMENT: Given significant logistical challenges and 
the lack of consensus on key details, planning for the March 
5-7 voting by Iraqi refugees in Syria is proceeding as well 
as could be expected.  It is noteworthy Iraqi diplomats 
praised SARG cooperation in facilitating the voting, the only 
praise Iraqi diplomats have directed towards Damascus in the 
last few months (though the Syrians may be anxious to 
encourage voting among the largely Sunni refugee population 
for their own purposes).  Voter turnout, however, is another 
matter.  Only about 30,000 Iraqi refugees voted in the last 
national elections in 2005, though a Sunni boycott of the 
voting certainly played a role.  Turnout among refugees this 
year will say a great deal about whether Iraqi voters here 
 
have faith in their electoral system, its ability to 
influence change in their homeland, and the degree to which 
they remain engaged in political events in Iraq. 
 
HUNTER