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O 101029Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8070
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 000358 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2030 
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL CH
SUBJECT: TIBET: CHINA FEELING PUBLIC PRESSURE TO REACT 
STRONGLY TO POTUS-DALAI LAMA MEETING, CONTACTS SAY 
 
REF: BEIJING 314 
 
Classified By: Political Minister Counselor 
Aubrey Carlson.  Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  Increased expression of 
nationalistic sentiment and public anger over recent 
Taiwan arms sales mean the PRC leadership will need 
to somehow "punish" the United States if the 
President meets with the Dalai Lama, according to 
several contacts.  A Tibetan academic at a Communist 
Party-run think tank said that, at the very least, 
the meeting will make dialogue between China and the 
Dalai Lama's representatives more difficult.  In 
contrast, Tibetan monks we spoke with said they were 
"very happy" that President Obama would receive the 
Dalai Lama and claimed that the overwhelming 
majority of Tibetans in China know about the 
upcoming meeting and fully support it.  In private 
conversations, some CCP and foreign policy officials 
have told us that China is less susceptible to 
international pressure on the Tibet issue and should 
"ignore" the meeting, as China's protests only 
increase the Dalai Lama's status.  End Summary. 
 
"First Warn, Then React" 
------------------------ 
 
¶2. (C) Ma Rong (protect), a Peking University 
sociologist who frequently advises the Communist 
Party's United Front Work Department (UFWD) on Tibet 
policy, described the Chinese leadership as under 
intense pressure from "Han nationalist" sentiment 
that has grown stronger due to recent years' ethnic 
unrest in Tibet and Xinjiang.  The Chinese public, 
he told PolOff February 9, held very negative views 
of the Dalai Lama, blamed the Chinese government for 
being too soft on minorities, and did not support 
dialogue between the UFWD and the Dalai Lama's 
representatives (reftel).  Adding to the pressure, 
high-ranking CCP leaders were preoccupied with 
jockeying for succession position in the run-up to 
the 18th Party Congress in 2012.  In such an 
atmosphere, Ma argued, there was no tolerance within 
the leadership for moderate views on Tibet or 
minority policy.  Much of the Chinese regime's 
recent international behavior, including its hard 
line against foreign leaders meeting the Dalai Lama, 
was driven primarily by this combination of domestic 
nationalistic pressure and competition for power. 
 
¶3. (C) Ma said that China had adopted a policy of 
"warn, then punish" toward the POTUS-Dalai Lama 
meeting.  He predicted that China's reaction would 
be more severe than following President Bush's 
attendance at the October 2007 Congressional Gold 
Medal ceremony for the Dalai Lama.  Ma pointed to a 
February 2 statement by UFWD Executive Vice Minister 
Zhu Weiqun that there would be "serious damage" 
(yanzhong pohuai) to bilateral relations should U.S. 
leaders meet with the Dalai Lama.  China's reaction 
would not be restricted to mere rhetoric, though he 
could only speculate about the specific steps China 
might take.  Ma said China might show its 
displeasure over the meeting by reducing cooperation 
on security issues important to the United States. 
Domestically, China might choose to make high- 
profile arrests of Tibetan monks after the meeting 
and to increase punishments given to Tibetan 
political prisoners:  "A sentence that would have 
been two years may become 10 years."  Ultimately, Ma 
said, Tibetans would be the "victims" of the 
leadership's anger over the meeting. 
 
¶4. (C) Zhang Yong, Managing Editor of the Global 
Times' English-language edition (the Global Times is 
a nationalistic tabloid that has given heavy 
coverage to China's official protests over the 
meeting) and a former reporter and editor of 
People's Daily, told PolOff February 9 that he 
thought the Chinese government reaction to the 
President's meeting with the Dalai Lama would be 
relatively restrained:  "loud but short-lived."  He 
said the Chinese government was motivated to repair 
U.S.-China relations and therefore would not take 
concrete action to "punish" the United States. 
 
Chinese Government "under Public Pressure" 
------------------------------------------ 
 
 
BEIJING 00000358  002 OF 003 
 
 
¶5. (C) In a meeting with PolOff February 5, Tanzen 
Lhundup (Danzeng Lunzhu), Vice Director of the 
Institute for Sociology and Economics at the Chinese 
Center for Tibetan Studies, a think tank associated 
with the UFWD, likewise stressed that Chinese 
leaders were under public pressure to respond 
forcefully to the POTUS-Dalai Lama meeting, 
especially coming so soon after the Taiwan arms 
sales announcement.  He blamed China's media, 
including Global Times, for whipping up 
nationalistic sentiment.  China's newspapers could 
provide thoughtful coverage of Iran and North Korea, 
but became "stupid" (i.e., emotional and jingoistic) 
when reporting on Tibet.  Emphasizing that he was 
speaking in a personal capacity, Tanzen Lhundup said 
he understood the domestic political factors at work 
in the United States that made it difficult for 
American presidents not to meet with the Dalai Lama. 
He believed the meeting would cause Tibetans to have 
unrealistic expectations of a breakthrough in PRC- 
Dalai Lama talks.  Rather than make compromise 
easier, however, the meeting would harden Chinese 
attitudes by reinforcing the notion that the Dalai 
Lama used foreigners to put pressure on Beijing, 
Tanzen Lhundup said. 
 
"Tibetans Are Very Happy" 
------------------------- 
 
¶6. (S) Several Tibetan monks PolOff spoke with in 
Beijing expressed overwhelming support for President 
Obama's decision to meet with the Dalai Lama. 
Suoang Zhaxi (strictly protect), a monk from Yushu 
County, Qinghai province, currently studying at a 
Beijing Buddhist college, told PolOff February 6 
that he was "very happy" that the meeting would take 
place.  He had originally invited PolOff to meet him 
at his school on Beijing's northern outskirts but 
later asked PolOff to meet him downtown, saying 
PolOff's presence near the school might invite 
unwanted attention from authorities.  The upcoming 
meeting, he said, made February a "sensitive time" 
for Tibetans, and he had to be cautious about 
contact with foreigners.  He hoped to obtain a 
"video" of the POTUS-Dalai Lama meeting similar to 
the video of the 2007 Congressional Gold Medal 
ceremony, which he said was widely distributed among 
Tibetans in China. 
 
¶7. (S) Gebchak Wangdrak Rinpoche (strictly protect), 
the abbot of a Buddhist nunnery in Nangqian County, 
Qinghai, told PolOff February 8 that all of the 400 
nuns at the nunnery knew about the meeting and were 
excited about it.  He said that Tibetans in southern 
Qinghai were receiving news about the Dalai Lama's 
trip to Washington both from the Voice of America's 
Tibetan service, which is available via satellite 
radio, and through word of mouth.  The Rinpoche 
dismissed the idea that official anger over the 
meeting might lead to a deterioration of human 
rights conditions in Tibet, saying the show of 
support from the United States was very important to 
Tibetans.  Similarly, Luosang Cicheng Pengcuo 
(strictly protect), a living Buddha at Lucang 
Monastery in Guinan County, Qinghai, told PolOff 
February 6 that "90 percent of Tibetans" in China 
knew about the upcoming meeting and were happy it 
would take place. 
 
"China Should Ignore the Dalai Lama" 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶8. (C) In recent private conversations, some CCP 
cadres have shrugged off news of the POTUS-Dalai 
Lama meeting, saying China's growing international 
clout made it less vulnerable to international 
pressure on the Tibet issue.  Zhang Jianguo 
(protect), a deputy director of the State Bureau of 
Foreign Experts, raised the topic of Tibet during a 
dinner with PolOff February 3.  Zhang argued that 
China paid "too much attention" to the Dalai Lama. 
The PRC should stop protesting the Dalai Lama's 
meetings with foreign leaders because "making such a 
fuss only gives the Dalai Lama more status than he 
deserves...if President Obama wants to meet him, 
then so what?"  Zhang noted that his ideas were 
unconventional in the CCP, but he nevertheless felt 
that China, given its growing international 
strength, should show more confidence regarding 
Tibet. 
 
BEIJING 00000358  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶9. (C) In a February 3 meeting with Chengdu Consul 
General, Yangling Dorje (protect), a senior Tibetan 
CCP cadre and the former Chairman of the Tibet 
Autonomous Region's Chinese People's Political 
Consultative Conference, expressed similar 
sentiments.  China, he said, was now a great power 
and was too strong a country to be pushed around by 
the agitation of overseas Tibetans and foreigners. 
The Global Times' Zhang Yong and Beijing University 
Assistant Professor Yu Wanli each separately 
expressed the same sentiments to PolOff February 9. 
Zhang complained that China's continued "severe 
overreaction" to international leaders' meetings 
with the Dalai Lama imposed costs only on China. 
"We react to his meetings, and our reaction has 
absolutely no effect at all," he moped.  "Better to 
ignore him." 
 
¶10. (U) This cable was coordinated with ConGen 
Chengdu. 
HUNTSMAN