VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSP #0062/01 0272130
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 272128Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY PORT OF SPAIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0148
INFO EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUMIESS/SOUTHCOM IESS MIAMI FL

UNCLAS PORT OF SPAIN 000062 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV TD
SUBJECT: TRINDIDAD'S OPPOSITION PARTY CHANGES GUARD 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: Trinidad and Tobago's (TT) leading opposition 
party dramatically changed leadership January 24 when United 
National Congress (UNC) members overwhelmingly elected Kamla 
Persad-Bissessar as political leader, making her the first woman to 
head a major political party in the country's history.  The 
election marked a significant blow to UNC founder and former Prime 
Minister Basdeo Panday, whose ongoing legal battles may have 
contributed to his stunning loss by a 10-to-1 margin.  Panday 
supporters are crying foul over claimed irregularities in the 
internal party elections as speculation turns to whether 
Persad-Bissessar -- now reaching out to the smaller COP party to 
widen her base -- will gather enough support among opposition 
parliamentarians to give the country's president cause to replace 
Panday as parliamentary opposition leader.  Some observers also 
speculate that Prime Minister Manning's ruling PNM party will call 
snap elections this year, but our sources (and we agree) judge this 
unlikely.  Manning will, however, shortly undertake a minor cabinet 
reshuffling.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
CHANGING OF THE OPPOSITION GUARD 
 
-------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2.  (U) After a rigorous and very public campaign to win the hearts 
and minds of the party faithful, parliamentarian Kamla 
Persad-Bissessar won the United National Congress party elections 
January 24 to take the helm as political leader, and businessman 
and longtime politico Jack Warner was elected party chair. 
Persad-Bissessar's election makes her the first woman to lead a 
major political party in Trinidad and Tobago. 
 
 
 
BUT WILL THE OLD GUARD STEP ASIDE? 
 
---------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶3.  (U) UNC founder and sitting parliamentary Opposition Leader 
Basdeo Panday lost by a landslide 10-to-1 margin, but his 
supporters are challenging the results claiming that thousands of 
ballots went uncounted.  Panday himself said he would leave it to 
others to mount a legal challenge to the election results, but it 
is widely reported that he has no intention of stepping down 
quietly as opposition leader in the parliament, a position that is 
appointed by the president upon a request of a majority of 
opposition MPs. 
 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) It was Panday's refusal to step aside as opposition 
leader under somewhat similar circumstances in 2006 that led 
Winston Dookeran to split from the UNC to form a new political 
party, the Congress of the People (COP).  Persad-Bissessar is said 
to be reaching out to the COP to form a coalition that could 
effectively reunite UNC-COP members and strengthen the opposition. 
A well-placed COP leader told us that he and others favor unity, 
but that Dookeran might be an obstacle.  Several opposition leaders 
and members of parliament we spoke with said the new UNC political 
leader should be able to garner the eight votes she needs among 
opposition party members of parliament in order to call for the 
appointment of a new opposition leader by the president in the 
coming days, though Panday is furiously working against this. 
 
 
 
MANNING'S REACTIONS 
 
------------------- 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Meanwhile, commentators have speculated that Prime 
Minister Patrick Manning's ruling People's National Movement (PNM) 
party will call a snap elections later this year, although party 
sources told us such a move would be unlikely (we agree).  Local 
elections, though, which have been delayed for nearly four years, 
might take place in May in a bid to hold them before the opposition 
has time to fully reorganize.  In addition, Manning is said to be 
planning a minor cabinet shuffle this week to better position 
stronger MPs in his government; a cabinet member told us last 
October that the PM would do so in January because it roughly marks 
 
the mid-point of Manning's five-year term. 
 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) COMMENT:   The UNC leadership change is widely regarded 
as a sea change for the party founded by Panday in 1989, and also 
as a repudiation of what some have characterized as a cantankerous 
leadership style and the ongoing criminal case involving a London 
bank account he allegedly failed to declare to the public integrity 
commission.  It also reflects the view among many -- including 
those who respect Panday and consider him a figure of historic 
importance -- that the only way to challenge the PNM is for 
opposition forces to unite, something widely viewed as impossible 
as long as Panday remained in charge of the UNC.  UNC and COP 
officials tell us they are confident that Persad-Bissessar's 
charisma and Warner's business sense (and deep pockets) will 
revitalize those opposed to the PNM, especially if Panday can be 
moved aside as official opposition leader in the parliament. 
Persad-Bissessar has made clear she has already set her sights on 
Manning and the PNM for the parliamentary elections that must be 
held by late 2012. 
Kusnitz