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Viewing cable 10MEXICO198, NEW FINANCE SECRETARY MEETS WITH AMBASSADOR, NSC

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
10MEXICO198 2010-01-21 18:35 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Mexico
VZCZCXRO5116
RR RUEHCD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #0198/01 0211836
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 211835Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0126
INFO ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 000198 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
SIPDIS 
STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/EPSC, EEB 
NSC FOR RESTREPO, FROMAN, LIPTON 
USDOC FOR 4320/ITA/MAC/WH/ONAFTA/GWORD 
TREASURY FOR NANCY LEE, IA 
ENERGY FOR WARD, LOCKWOOD AND DAVIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD ENRG ELTN EAIR PGOV SENV MX
SUBJECT: NEW FINANCE SECRETARY MEETS WITH AMBASSADOR, NSC 
 
REF: A. 2639, B. 2537, C. 2709 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary.  Ambassador Carlos Pascual and NSC Senior 
Director David Lipton met with newly appointed Secretary of Finance 
and Public Credit (SHCP) Francisco Cordero and Deputy SHCP 
Secretary Alejandro Werner.  They discussed the current state and 
outlook of Mexico's economy, the importance of bilateral 
cooperation in the context of the G-20, climate change issues, and 
opportunities for mobilizing capital to municipalities such as 
Ciudad Juarez and Tijuana.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
2.   (SBU)  On January 13, the Ambassador, NSC Senior Director 
David Lipton, Evensen Dodge International Senior Vice President 
Fernando Gama (a USAID contractor), and Emboffs met with newly 
appointed SHCP Secretary Francisco Cordero, SHCP Deputy Secretary 
Alejandro Werner, and SHCP Coordinator of State and Municipalities, 
Jose Antonio Gonzalez. 
 
 
 
Economic Outlook 
 
---------------------- 
 
 
 
3.  (SBU) SHCP Deputy Secretary Alejandro Werner provided an 
overview of Mexico's economic recovery and outlook for 2010.  In 
2009, the economy contracted an estimated 6.8 percent due to a drop 
in industrial production and the H1N1 outbreak. The recovery began 
in the third quarter of last year and is attributed to growth in 
industrial and services sectors, as well as an improvement in 
aggregate demand.  Hacienda expects the economy to grow 3 percent 
this year.  Werner said this was a conservative projection since 
actual growth is subject to U.S. economic performance.  SHCP 
estimates that the recently passed fiscal reform will generate one 
percent of GDP in additional revenue.  Moreover, the increased 
autonomy of Pemex (as an outcome of the last energy reform) and the 
liquidation of the electric parastatal Luz y Fuerza del Centro 
should also help public finances.  Nevertheless, he said more 
needed to be done to strengthen the non-oil tax base, 
competitiveness, and domestic sources of growth.  This year, the 
GOM will focus on the political reform agenda, infrastructure and 
other initiatives to help strengthen the country's competitiveness. 
 
 
 
 
G20 Cooperation 
 
-------------------- 
 
 
 
4.  (SBU) NSC Senior Director David Lipton underscored the 
importance of U.S.-Mexico bilateral and multilateral cooperation in 
the context of the G-20.  He said the U.S. and Mexico have mutual 
interests and should develop better mechanisms for cooperation that 
are ongoing and not just reactive.  Given the challenges from China 
and other emerging economies, it is essential for Mexico and the 
U.S. to align views in order to establish a framework for 
sustainable growth.  Lipton underlined that success in this year's 
G-20 Summit was critical and should not deteriorate into a U.S. 
verses China forum; China's exchange rate issue impacts other 
countries as well, not just the U.S.  Cordero agreed that Mexico 
has shared interests and positions with the U.S. on China. 
 
 
 
Climate Change 
 
------------------- 
 
 
 
5.  (SBU) Recognizing that Mexico will host the COP 16 in 
 
MEXICO 00000198  002 OF 003 
 
 
November-December, Lipton suggested a complementary focus on the 
financial aspect of climate change and recommended a dialogue with 
Mexico on this matter.  Given European doubts about the usefulness 
of the Copenhagen Accord, the Ambassador stressed that it is key 
for the U.S. and Mexico to be on the same page.  Lipton noted that 
Cordero could discuss this issue, as well as trade, 
competitiveness, and financial reform issues in his meeting with 
Secretary Geithner on January 20. 
 
 
 
6.  (SBU) Secretary Cordero agreed on the need to strengthen 
cooperation and communication with the Embassy and Treasury on the 
issues raised by Lipton and the Ambassador.  He said the topic of 
climate change is a priority in the Calderon Administration and 
underscored the importance of engaging SHCP in this discussion. 
Gonzalez added that SCHP has had informal discussions with Treasury 
on initiatives to develop a North American carbon market and 
suggested that such a proposal might be appropriate if there is no 
agreement at COP-16 on a global carbon market.  The Ambassador and 
Lipton underscored that any progress on carbon markets will need to 
take into account progress on U.S. energy reform legislation.  They 
informed Cordero of the first meeting of the US-Mexico Bilateral 
Framework on Clean Energy and Climate Change in Washington on 
January 26, which will deal with our bilateral agenda on climate 
change, energy and the potential market for renewables.  The 
Ambassador said he would like to see a broader, more positive 
bilateral agenda, rising above trade disputes to discuss 
opportunities such as developing a regional renewable energy 
market. Werner highlighted the need for careful interagency 
coordination as there are many GOM elements responsible for energy 
and climate change issues. 
 
 
 
7.  (SBU) Lipton alerted Cordero of the USG's plans to eliminate 
the subsidies on fossil fuels within a year and asked if Mexico 
would join and say something on eliminating these subsidies - not 
necessarily with a timeframe for action - within the next 4 to 5 
months.  Cordero was non-committal, explaining that it was a 
complicated political issue.  However, he agreed that Mexico needs 
to move away from price subsidies toward targeted subsidies for the 
poor.  He cited fuel price increases already implemented at the end 
of 2009. 
 
 
 
USAID-Evensen Dodge Project 
 
------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
8.  (SBU) The Ambassador mentioned that he was going to the border 
on January 14th and 15th to look at possible models of security and 
socio-economic cooperation in Ciudad Juarez (CJ) and Tijuana.  He 
noted that the Embassy - through USAID - is partnering with a U.S. 
private firm, Evensen Dodge, that has decades of experience 
advising local governments on public finance and debt.  Fernando 
Gama, Evensen Dodge Senior Vice President, gave Cordero an overview 
of the project and explained how Evensen Dodge is developing 
financing models to help mobilize private capital for Mexican 
subnational governments that work within the legal and policy 
parameters established by SHCP and the CNBV.  Through this project, 
the states of Michoac????n, Hidalgo, and Quintana Roo have borrowed 
over USD 1 billion in private capital for infrastructure and other 
productive purposes, at the most favorable rates available in 
Mexico. 
 
 
 
9.  (SBU) Werner and Gonzalez expressed interest and questions, 
noting that some states and most municipalities have limited 
borrowing capacity.  Gonzalez also explained that the issue of 
"participaciones" (the part of the federal budget that belongs to 
the states by law) was currently highly politicized in Congress. 
Cordero said it was a good idea, but noted the existence of 
borrowing restrictions on subnationals.  With respect to CJ, 
 
MEXICO 00000198  003 OF 003 
 
 
Cordero cited efforts undertaken while he was Secretary at the 
Social Development Ministry to adapt the "Medellin model" to CJ 
through the GOM program "Limpiemos Mexico." They are also exploring 
alternative models and solutions, but he noted budget constraints 
and the huge local and social investment that would be required to 
achieve results.  The Ambassador noted that one advantage of the 
proposed financing model is that it allows for joint financing with 
the private sector and development banks.  Without such a model for 
subnational finance, most of the GOM's ideas for intensive 
municipal infrastructure and job creation projects will remain 
ideas on paper. 
FEELEY