VZCZCXRO7991
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHRN
DE RUEHMR #0027/01 0261228
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 261228Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY MASERU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4564
INFO RUCNSAD/SADC COLLECTIVE
RUEHMR/AMEMBASSY MASERU 5000

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MASERU 000027 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/S AND INR/AF 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV LT
SUBJECT: LOCAL ELECTIONS: ELECTION COMMISSION CHAIR DISCUSSES 
PREPARATIONS 
 
MASERU 00000027  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
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Summary 
 
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¶1. (U) On Thursday, January 21, 2010, Poloff met with the Chair 
of Lesotho's Independent Electoral Commission to discuss 
Lesotho's upcoming local government elections.  The Chair 
doesn't expect elections to occur before the end of April.  She 
also affirmed that opposition parties and the ruling LCD party 
have been happy with recent meetings to discuss the local 
government elections.  Preparations are coming along, but a 
major holdup is a controversy over the "reservations," or seats 
reserved for women, and some opposition parties have threatened 
to boycott the elections. 
 
 
 
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Preparations underway, though election date is still uncertain 
 
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¶2. (U) The IEC is responsible for setting dates for local 
government elections.  The next elections are supposed to occur 
before April 30.  However, the IEC is concerned that elections 
may not be possible until later, and the Chair suggested that 
there may be a need to amend the law to allow extension of the 
local councils, to allow time to come to agreement over certain 
issues, such as the reservation of 30% of electoral divisions (a 
unit of local government) for women.  In the meantime, the IEC 
is recruiting and hiring temporary staff for voter education, as 
display clerks, and as paying clerks.  Temporary employees are 
normally only hired for three months at a time, and while these 
employees have been particularly useful during the three recent 
by-elections, the IEC is uncertain how long they can keep them. 
For now, they hope to use the temporary employees to educate the 
public about local government elections.  Though local 
government elections have been held since 2005, many Basotho 
still do not understand their purpose. 
 
 
 
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Reserved seats for women contentious, but election boycott 
unlikely 
 
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¶3. (U) Like every election since independence, the current 
election is not without conflict.  Right now, conflict is 
centered on the controversial issue of "reservations," or the 
30% of electoral divisions which are reserved for women.  On 
December 15 and again on January 19, the IEC met with political 
parties to discuss local government elections.  In December, the 
IEC presented its ideas about the reservations, but requested 
input from all political parties.  In December, one group 
refused to consider keeping affirmative action at all.  The IEC 
chair was adamant that affirmative action for women is still 
needed, pointing out that even in areas where women are in the 
majority, they still elect men to be their leaders.  At the 
January meeting, no one brought any ideas to the table, but some 
party leaders mentioned a compromise approach which has been 
used in Tanzania.  The IEC Chair expects the parties to follow 
up on this suggestion. 
 
 
 
¶4. (U)  Another area of potential conflict is the possibility of 
a boycott.  Some opposition parties had been planning to boycott 
the local government elections due to the unresolved issue of 
proportional representation parliamentary seats in the 2007 
national election.  However, those parties were all present at 
the January meeting.  At the first local government elections in 
2005, many people decided to stand as independents against their 
parties' wishes, because the opposition parties boycotted.  The 
 
MASERU 00000027  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
2005 boycott caused a lot of confusion, and did not help the 
opposition parties' cause, so it seems unlikely that the parties 
would boycott again, despite their threats to do so. 
 
 
 
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Delimitation exercise received positively 
 
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¶5. (U) The IEC is not unhappy that elections might be postponed 
because they are currently in the middle of a delimitation 
exercise to redraw the constituencies for the national election 
in 2012.  The delimitation exercise was based on geographic 
factors, communities of interest like established neighborhoods, 
and keeping administrative areas confined within a district. 
After redrawing the boundaries, the IEC displayed the suggested 
boundaries, and asked the public to comment.  Then they analyzed 
all the comments they received, and began looking for "hot 
spots" where there might be trouble with the new boundaries. 
Once all the "hot spots" have been identified, they will visit 
those areas and meet with the community to get a better idea of 
their concerns.  The initial response to the exercise has been 
positive, supporting the IEC Chair's claim that they have done a 
pretty good job on "human relationships" during this exercise. 
 They've had 562 comments so far, though not all very 
constructive. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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IEC confident in the Christian Council of Lesotho's negotiation 
 
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¶6.  (SBU) The SADC Troika is expected to visit Lesotho again 
within the next few weeks to discuss the ongoing controversy 
over the distribution of parliamentary seats following the 2007 
national elections.  The last time the Troika came to Lesotho, 
the IEC told them that they have confidence in the Christian 
Council of Lesotho process, and believes that they should 
proceed in a supportive manner.  The IEC Chair stated that 
negotiators should help the LCD to move away from their present 
position, because both parties need to come to the middle.  The 
IEC would like to see the GOL use the 2007 experience to tighten 
the law so that this confusion is stopped.  They have submitted 
recommendations to the Ministry of Justice. 
 
 
 
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One expert, two calculations, one fine mess 
 
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¶7.  (SBU) According to the Chair, Lesotho's electoral model is 
still new, and it is normal that it continues to face challenges 
as the country adjusts to it.  For example, the emergence of 
alliances in 2007 was new, and no one knew how to deal with it. 
The GOL invited Professor Jorgen Elklit of Denmark to come to 
the Kingdom and do the calculation for the assignment of 
proportional seats.  Initially his calculations were presented 
publicly, and everyone accepted them.  However, he later did an 
alternative calculation, which he presented to the IEC Chair 
privately.  Somehow word got to the opposition, who wanted the 
seats redistributed using this alternative calculation.  This 
led to the current stalemate and continuing disagreement about 
the proportional seats. 
 
 
 
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Comment 
 
MASERU 00000027  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
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¶8.  (SBU) Post concurs with the Chair's assessment that 
preparations will not be complete in time for April elections. 
We have heard through a contact at the Lesotho Council of NGOs 
that if elections cannot be held before May, they will be 
scheduled for September, as the harsh winter weather will not 
allow for voting in the remote rural regions where most of the 
population lives. 
 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The idea of two calculations, one of which was shared 
with the Chair of the IEC, was new to Post.  It appears that the 
former IEC chair knew of Professor Elklit's second thoughts, but 
wanted to hide them, to protect his own reputation.  It is 
unclear how the second calculation was leaked to the opposition. 
 This does explain why the GOL is hesitant to include Professor 
Elklit in any further mediation on the elections.  Post will be 
following this issue closely in the lead-up to local government 
elections, and will inform the Department if there are any 
developments. 
NOLAN