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O 050818Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY MANILA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6150
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RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA IMMEDIATE 2339
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 0365
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 000010 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
BANGKOK FOR  USAID /OFDA REGIONAL ADVISOR A. DWYER 
USAID FOR DCHA/OFDA R. THAYER 
USAID W/ FOR ANE/AA AND DCHA/FPP 
GENEVA FOR N. KYLOH 
USUN FOR OFDA REP 
BRUSSELS FOR P. BROWN 
ROME FOR USAID/OHA H. SPANOS 
SECDEF FOR SOLIC 
JOINT STAFF WASHDC FOR J3/J4/J5 
PACOM FOR J3/J4/J5 
NSC FOR P. MARCHAM 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID SOCI PREL KPAO SENV EAGR CASC RP
SUBJECT:  PHILIPPINES VOLCANO THREAT EASES; SUCCESSFUL 'ZERO 
CASUALTY' EVACUATION WRAPS UP 
 
REFTELS:  A) 09 Manila 2583 B) 09 Manila 2597 C) 09 Manila 2610 D) 
09 Manila 2636 E) 09 Manila 2638 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Philippine volcanologists downgraded the threat 
level of southern Luzon's Mount Mayon to Alert Level 3 on January 2, 
allowing nearly all 48,000 evacuees to return to their homes on the 
volcano's slopes.  Albay provincial officials attribute their 
successful management of the crisis and the lack of fatalities to 
well-practiced evacuation protocols, as well as assistance from the 
United States and others.  End Summary. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
Declining Activity Merits Threat Downgrade 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) Expecting a trend of declining volcanic activity that began 
on December 28 to persist, Philippine Institute of Volcanology and 
Seismology (PHIVOLCS) scientists lowered the threat level of Mount 
Mayon from Alert Level 4 to 3 on January 2.  The number of volcanic 
earthquakes has decreased from a December 21 high of almost 2,000 
per day to three on January 4, and the daily volume of sulfur 
dioxide emissions has stabilized at 2,000 tons, from a peak of over 
8,000 tons, according to PHIVOLCS bulletins.  In a January 4 radio 
interview, PHIVOLCS Director Renato Solidum said that barring an 
upturn in reactivity, he expected to maintain Alert Level 3, which 
signifies 'relatively high unrest,' for another week or more. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
Ninety Five Percent of Evacuees Return Home 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) More than 95 percent of the almost 48,000 people whom 
authorities evacuated since December 14 had returned to their homes 
by January 4, according to the Albay Province Public Safety and 
Emergency Management Office.  Approximately 500 families whose homes 
lie in the permanent danger zone within four miles of the summit 
will remain in vacuation centers until PHIVOLCS authorities 
dowgrade the threat to Alert Level 2.  According to mdia reports, 
provincial authorities are distributing a two-month supply of rice 
to decamping families, as well as providing a payment of 1,400 
Philippine pesos (USD 30), for which families are obligated to 
repair and clean up evacuation centers. 
 
---------------------------- 
Evacuation Practice Pays Off 
---------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Albay provincial authorities identify preemptive evacuation 
as the key response mechanism in their effort to achieve zero 
disaster casualties.  Provincial disaster officials told us that 
conducting seven mass typhoon- and volcano-related evacuations in 
recent years fine-tuned evacuation protocols.  Chief Provincial 
Health Officer Doctor Chito Mendoza noted that not only could none 
of the four fatalities that occurred in the evacuation centers be 
attributed to the conditions there, but that this number represented 
a 71 percent decrease in the expected number of fatalities for a 
population of 48,000 in Albay province.  This statistic indicates 
that evacuees receivedhigher quality food and health care in the 
evacuation centers than they did while living independently, 
according to Dr. Mendoza. 
 
------------------------------------- 
U.S. Disaster Relief Past and Present 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Based on continued high levels of volcanic activity at the 
end of last month, the Ambassador exercised her disaster relief 
authority on December 29 (ref E) and requested USD 100,000 from the 
U.S. Agency for International Development Office of U.S. Foreign 
 
MANILA 00000010  002 OF 002 
 
 
Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA), of which USD 50,000 was released 
to the Philippine National Red Cross (PNRC) on January 1.  The PNRC 
originally planned to use these funds to procure and distribute 
non-food items such as face masks to filter out volcanic ash, 
tarpaulins for emergency shelters, as well as mosquito nets and 
hygiene kits.  As a result of the reduced alert level and the 
resulting decampment of most evacuees, however, USAID/OFDA will 
reevaluate the use of those funds.  In light of the historical 
unpredictability of Mayon's hazardous eruptions, USAID will continue 
to assess the potential use of the unobligated USD 50,000. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Albay Governor Jose Sarte 'Joey' Salceda and other 
provincial officials have publicly and privately thanked the United 
States and other international donors for past and present disaster 
relief assistance.  USAID has funded over five million dollars of 
disaster relief and preparedness projects in Albay province since 
2006 (Refs A and C), and a broad range of international and 
non-governmental organizations provided food and technical 
assistance to the Mayon volcano refugees during the recent crisis 
(Ref D). 
 
¶7. (SBU) A high regional population density and the draw of rich 
volcanic soil have led many Filipinos to make their homes on the 
volcano's slopes.  Authorities estimate that almost 130,000 
residents live within range of a catastrophic explosion.  To 
mitigate the need for recurring evacuations, provincial officials 
have begun a program to permanently relocate those living within 
four miles of the summit.  To date they have provided developed lots 
outside the danger zone to over 10,000 households that currently 
reside in these high risk areas. 
 
Kenney