VZCZCXRO0054
PP RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHHK #0010/01 0041038
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 041038Z JAN 10
FM AMCONSUL HONG KONG
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9313
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 000010 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/CM; ALSO FOR DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/04/2020 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM CH HK
SUBJECT: HONG KONG JANUARY 1 DEMOCRACY DEMONSTRATION: ONE 
MARCH, FOUR CAUSES 
 
REF: HONG KONG 2377 
 
Classified By: Acting Consul General Christopher Marut for reasons 1.4( 
b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary and Comment:  Thousands of Hong Kong residents 
marched to the Central Government Liaison Office (CGLO) 
January 1 to push for universal suffrage and to protest the 
conviction of Mainland Charter '08 activist Liu Xiaobo. 
While the Civic Party and the radical League of Social 
Democrats (LSD) claimed the march turnout as support for 
their plan to use legislative by-elections as a referendum on 
universal suffrage, the largest number of banners were for 
their erstwhile allies the Democratic Party (DPHK).  A 
diverse group of organizations joined the march but largely 
aligned themselves with the three headline causes -- "true" 
universal suffrage, abolition of the small-circle functional 
constituencies, and freedom for Liu.  The exception were 
protesters opposing location of a Hong Kong connection to the 
Mainland's national high-speed rail network through a New 
Territories village.  A small group of young protesters 
championing this latter cause attempted to confront police 
cordoning off the CGLO, with the LSD playing an unaccustomed 
role in trying to stop them.  Respectable in turnout, the 
protest suggested Hong Kong people remain motivated by the 
cause of democracy, but the march itself does not appear to 
grant a mandate to either the Civics-LSD alliance or the 
moderates in the DPHK and elsewhere in the democracy camp. 
No one believes the march itself will move Beijing to 
negotiate on political reform.  End Summary and Comment. 
 
¶2. (C) On January 1, 2010, activists led by Hong Kong NGO 
Power for Democracy marched from Statue Square near the 
Legislative Council (LegCo) to the Central Government Liaison 
Office (CGLO - Beijing's representative office to the people 
of Hong Kong) to voice support for democratic political 
reform and to oppose the imprisonment of Mainland Charter '08 
activist Liu Xiaobo.  Organizer Richard Tsoi Yiu-cheong 
claimed a turnout of 30,000, while Hong Kong police offered a 
figure of 9,000.  Pan-democratic legislative caucus convener 
Cyd Ho Sau-lan estimated 20,000, while our own unscientific 
estimate would be 10-15,000. 
 
------------------ 
The Four Questions 
------------------ 
 
¶3. (C) The three headline causes of the march were universal 
suffrage (which for the pan-democrats means elections for 
both the Chief Executive and all sixty LegCo seats by an 
equal vote of all registered voters), elimination of the 
small-circle functional constituencies (FC), and freedom for 
Liu Xiaobo.  Hedging their bets, march organizers 
preemptively co-opted anyone coming out for any other cause 
with the "big tent" slogan that all of Hong Kong's economic 
and social problems could be linked to the lack of 
democratically-constituted government accountable to 
citizens.  That said, usual tagalongs like Lehman minibond 
customers, migrant workers, and Falun Gong appeared to have 
passed on the march.  While ethnic minority rights NGO Unison 
was on hand with a multiracial delegation, they were strictly 
on message, supporting universal suffrage and freedom for Liu 
rather than their usual range of concerns. 
 
¶4. (C) The one notable exception were protesters supporting a 
New Territories village the government intends to relocate to 
make way for a rail link from Hong Kong to a PRC national 
high-speed rail system hub in Shenzhen.  This cause has 
become popular with a new generation of young activists who 
operate outside the established NGOs and political parties 
(more below). 
 
--------------- 
Unclear Mandate 
--------------- 
 
¶5. (C) One of our contacts described a Hong Kong democracy 
protest as a wishing well -- one tosses in one's coin and 
takes away what one wishes.  In that respect, both factions 
in the pan-democratic camp could join the march and claim it 
validated their cause.  The Civic Party and League of Social 
Democrats (LSD) claimed the march turnout as a mandate for 
their plan to have five of their legislators resign so as to 
use the resulting by-elections (in which the legislators 
would run) as a "referendum" on universal suffrage.  LSD 
Chairman Raymond "Mad Dog" Wong Yuk-man used CGLO as a 
backdrop to announce the five would resign January 27.  While 
we observed a number of marchers wearing stickers supporting 
the "referendum," polls continue to indicate public opinion 
is against the plan, and pro-democracy scholars and 
 
HONG KONG 00000010  002 OF 002 
 
 
commentators, including some affiliated with or close to the 
Civics, have all expressed opposition.  In a typical general 
election, the entire turnout of the march would suffice to 
elect only one legislator in one of Hong Kong's complex 
multi-seat geographic constituencies. 
 
¶6. (C)  Whatever the Civics and the LSD claimed, the largest 
number of banners were for the Democratic Party (DPHK). 
Other than by noting the continued expressed interest of the 
Hong Kong people in democracy, however, it was not clear the 
march turnout translated directly into support for the DPHK's 
plan to work with pro-democracy scholars and think-tank 
analysts to develop an alternative to the government's draft 
plan for political reform in 2012 (septel). 
 
---------------- 
The New Radicals 
---------------- 
 
¶7. (C) The one breakdown in this typically peaceful protest 
was an attempt by young radical activists to rush the police 
cordon at CGLO.  Police had negotiated with march leaders 
that twenty activists would approach the building to attempt 
to deliver a petition.  However, the young activists 
attempted to push through police lines to get to the back 
entrance of CGLO.  Ironically, it fell to LSD firebrand Leung 
"Long Hair" Kwok-hung, a veteran of many a tussle with the 
police himself, to borrow a police bullhorn to try to 
disperse the activists.  While the activists professed 
support for all the causes of the day, they have most 
recently been the unexpected allies of the New Territories 
villagers. 
 
¶8. (C) Contacts have pointed out a growing trend among 
younger activists to express their frustration about the lack 
of political and social progress in Hong Kong by 
system-rejection activism (in contrast to the "reform from 
within the system" ethos expressed by the established 
democracy movement).  They use inmediahk.net as one of their 
rostra and social networking sites like Facebook for 
mobilization.  Some observers have suggested the Civics' fear 
that this trend would lead to their marginalization helped 
foment the party's hard turn towards more radical politics. 
The price they pay, according to one DPHK strategist, may be 
the loss of Civics' older middle-class base, who reject 
either the resignation plan or the party's alliance with the 
antic-prone LSD, or both. 
 
--------------- 
Budging Beijing 
--------------- 
 
¶9. (C) As reported reftel, no one expected the march itself 
would persuade Beijing to be more forthcoming on political 
reform.  Most observers feel Beijing will wait to see how 
many seats its allies win in the coming by-elections.  There 
is some speculation in the media about the impact the 
conflation of the Liu case with Hong Kong democratic reform 
or the scuffle at CGLO might have on Beijing's thinking, but 
we have not yet seen a compelling analysis of what conclusion 
Beijing drew regarding the march. 
MARUT