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OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHDS #0128/01 0271211
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 271211Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7517
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
RUEWMFC/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEHRB/AMEMBASSY RABAT 0948

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 000128 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/FO, AF/W 
PARIS FOR WALLACE BAIN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV AU ASEC GV
SUBJECT:  ICG MEETING ON GUINEA REINFORCES JAN 15 OUAGADOUGOU 
DECLARATION 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  The tenth meeting of the International Contact 
Group (ICG) on Guinea on January 26 brought no surprises as Group 
members were generally encouraged by recent political developments 
in Guinea.  Discussion focused on reinforcing the January 15 
Ouagadougou Declaration through advancing security sector reform, 
restarting targeted assistance programs (many of which have been 
suspended), reviewing sanctions, and pressuring Guinean stakeholders 
to move forward quickly.  Although there was a sense of cautious 
optimism, ICG members remain deeply concerned about the overall 
security situation and the potential for backsliding.  During the 
course of the meeting, the ICG agreed to officially accept the 
Kingdom of Morocco into the Group as a member.  The next ICG meeting 
is scheduled for February 22 in Conakry, Guinea.  END SUMMARY. 
 
-------------------- 
MEETING PARTICIPANTS 
-------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The ICG on Guinea convened its tenth session on January 26 
in Addis Ababa.  AU Commission Chairperson Jean Ping opened the 
meeting, but left shortly after delivering his opening remarks, 
leaving ICG co-chairs Dr. Ibrahima Fall and Dr. Mohammed Ibn Chambas 
to conduct the rest of the meeting.  Organizations and countries 
represented included France, the United Kingdom, Libya, Morocco, 
China, Japan, Russia, Canada, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, the European 
Union, the United Nations, the World Bank, the Francophonie, the 
Community of Sahel-Saharan States (SEN-CAD), and the Organization of 
Islamic States.  Several senior diplomats were present: 
A/S-equivalent Stephane Gompertz of France, the Burkinabe Deputy 
Minister of Foreign Affairs, Minata Samate-Cessouma, UN Special 
Representative Said Djinnit of the UN, and the Nigerian Minister of 
State for African Affairs.  AF DAS Fitzgerald represented the United 
States.  Guinea did not send a delegation.  The last ICG meeting was 
held in Ouagadougou on December 13, 2009. 
 
----------------------------- 
UPDATE FROM THE ICG CO-CHAIRS 
----------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Before opening the floor for discussion, Chambas updated 
the Group on recent developments in Guinea. Chambas and Fall had 
traveled to Ouagadougou, just after learning of the signing of the 
January 15 Ouagadougou Declaration, where they were able to meet 
with junta leaders Captain Dadis Camara and General Sekouba Konate, 
as well as the CNDD (National Council for Democracy and Development) 
delegation that had arrived with the intent of escorting Dadis back 
to Conakry.  According to Chambas, Burkinabe President Blaise 
Compaore's successful mediation convinced the CNDD delegation that 
General Konate would lead Guinea's transition while Dadis would 
continue to convalesce in Ouagadougou. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Chambas and Fall accompanied Konate back to Conakry on 
January 22, along with a Burkinabe General, Ali Traore, who Compaore 
sent with instructions to remain in Guinea as an observer and 
advisor throughout the transition process.  France later strongly 
endorsed General Traore's presence, describing him as a 
high-ranking, experienced military officer. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) While in Conakry, Chambas and Fall met with the new 
Guinean Prime Minister, Jean-Marie Dore.  Dore reportedly told 
Chambas that he would do everything he could to move the transition 
process forward quickly, but that he faces significant challenges. 
Dore said that he wants to be prime minister in reality, with real 
powers, and wants to make sure that he is given the authority he 
needs to direct the process.  According to Chambas, Dore said he is 
willing to "sacrifice" his candidacy for president, but only if it 
means that Konate delegates the appropriate powers of state for him 
to fulfill his mandate.  Dore also expressed concerns about the 
overall security situation, noted that the national coffers are 
empty, and requested international assistance to alleviate economic 
and social pressures during the transition period. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) With respect to General Konate, Chambas described him as 
someone who understands and respects that he has a clear mandate. 
"Konate signed an agreement and he is someone who respects his 
commitments," Chambas told the ICG.  Chambas added that Konate fully 
intends to keep the CNDD out of the elections. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Chambas and Fall also met with representatives of the 
Forces Vives, Guinea's loose coalition of opposition forces. 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00000128  002 OF 003 
 
 
Chambas noted that the Forces Vives were surprised by the 
Ouagadougou Declaration and chagrined that they had been left out of 
such an important discussion, but were generally happy with the 
results, admitting that the Declaration was more than they had hoped 
for.  However, the Forces Vives told Chambas that it is important 
for the government to move quickly to ensure a successful 
transition.  They expressed concern about the National Transition 
Council, noting that if the body is not given a clear mandate, it 
could interrupt or delay the electoral process.  The Forces Vives 
also noted ongoing concerns about the security situation, and 
underscored the need for international assistance for security 
sector reform. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Chambas said he left Guinea feeling "more assured" that 
most Guinean stakeholders want the transition process to move 
forward and are committed to doing so.  At the same time, Chambas 
remains concerned about the overall security situation, potential 
spoilers, and the underlying fragility of the process. 
 
-------------------------- 
DISCUSSING THE WAY FORWARD 
-------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) During the ensuing discussion, there were several 
recurrent themes.  Nearly all ICG members noted that the transition 
process seems to be moving forward positively, but emphasized 
concerns about security and Guinea's continued political 
instability.  The Burkinabe Minister stressed an urgent need for 
security sector reform, which was echoed by several members of the 
Group. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) DAS Fitzgerald agreed that security sector reform is 
needed, but that such a project is more of a long-term process.  For 
the near term, he emphasized the importance of bringing in an ECOWAS 
civil-military observer mission as soon as possible, in order to 
bolster security in the lead-up to elections.  Fitzgerald added that 
the United States is ready to assist with this initiative as it is 
essential to have an observer team on the ground.  Canada publicly 
echoed Fitzgerald's comments while the Nigerian Minister of State 
privately expressed support later during a break. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) The Nigerian Minister of State's comments to the Group 
focused on security concerns as well.  He emphasized the importance 
of continued unity among members of the Forces Vives.  He also 
commended Burkinabe President Blaise Compaore for his willingness to 
host Dadis.  "It is very important that we keep Dadis out of 
Guinea," he noted, adding that Nigeria had already pledged to 
provide financial support to the Burkinabe Government to help 
maintain Dadis in Ouagadougou. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) On the topic of sanctions, Chambas noted that there are 
currently two types of sanctions against Guinea:  those that were 
implemented in response to the December 28, 2008 coup d'etat and 
those that were put in place in response to Dadis' intended 
candidacy and the September 28, 2009 massacre.  Chambas encouraged 
members of the Group to review their sanctions and determine whether 
some could be lifted in recognition of recent positive developments. 
 France commented that some bilateral programs can resume, such as 
military and economic cooperation, as soon as the transitional 
government is established, stating that "we will strongly consider 
restarting some of these programs."  The EU cautioned that review of 
sanctions should not inadvertently condone impunity for serious 
human rights abuses. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) In response to suggestions that the World Bank and the 
IMF consider resuming programs in Guinea, the WB representative said 
the Bank wants to play a role to help stabilize the transition 
process, but needs to hold internal consultations to determine "at 
what speed we can engage."  He noted that it may be difficult to do 
anything in the near term because Guinea is more than $15 million in 
arrears on debt payments. 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Buy-in to the Ouagadougou Declaration was another issue 
of concern.  Although the Forces Vives seem satisfied with the 
Declaration, several members of the Group suggested that a more 
legally binding agreement should be put in place, such as a 
presidential decree.  Chambas agreed that such an agreement would be 
helpful, but said that it should be put in place quickly and not 
launch any "re-negotiation." 
 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00000128  003 OF 003 
 
 
------------------------------ 
MOROCCO ACCEPTED AS ICG MEMBER 
------------------------------ 
 
¶15.  (SBU) During the discussions, the Kingdom of Morocco requested 
that Morocco participate permanently in the ICG meetings on Guinea. 
ICG members noted Morocco's recent contributions to advancing the 
transition process and agreed that Morocco should participate in 
future ICG meetings. 
 
-------------- 
ICG COMMUNIQUE 
-------------- 
 
¶16.  (SBU) Following the discussions, the Group negotiated the text 
of the communique, which has not yet been officially released.  Key 
components include: 
 
-- expression of appreciation for Burkinabe President Blaise 
Compaore's successful mediation efforts; 
 
-- statement of willingness to support Guinean initiatives to 
restore constitutional order, state authority, national 
reconciliation, economic and social development, and security sector 
reform; 
 
-- an invitation to ECOWAS to enter into negotiations with the 
Guinean authorities regarding the deployment of a joint 
civil-military observation mission to Guinea as soon as possible; 
 
-- an invitation for countries and organizations to review their 
sanctions against Guinea; 
 
-- a re-statement of Item No. 8 of the Ouagadougou Declaration 
regarding the non-candidacy of members of the CNDD and the 
transition government in upcoming elections; 
 
-- acknowledgement of the UN Commission of Inquiry's investigation; 
and 
 
-- admission of the Kingdom of Morocco as a member of the ICG on 
Guinea. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶17.  (SBU) There were no surprises during the meeting as ICG members 
were generally encouraged by recent developments and looking to 
reinforce the Ouagadougou Declaration.  At the same time, it was 
clear that ICG members remain deeply concerned about the security 
situation and the potential for backsliding.  They were focused on 
needing to work towards security sector reform, restarting targeted 
assistance, and pressuring Guinean stakeholders to stay the course. 
Most agreed that time is of the essence. 
 
¶18.  (SBU) On the question of an ECOWAS observer mission, discussion 
during the meeting was limited, but there seemed to be continued 
support for the initiative, particularly among France, Canada, and 
Nigeria.  DAS Fitzgerald spoke privately to Chambas who said he 
remains committed to getting an ECOWAS observer mission on the 
ground as soon as possible, but that the ICG needed to be careful 
about the wording in the communique so as to avoid exacerbating 
tensions in Guinea, particularly in the Forest Region. 
 
¶19.  (SBU) The next ICG meeting is scheduled for February 22 in 
Conakry. 
 
¶20. (U) DAS Fitzgerald has not had an opportunity to review this 
cable.