VZCZCXRO3901
PP RUEHSL
DE RUEHRO #1363/01 3451639
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 111639Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2999
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0563
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 0977
RUEHMIL/AMCONSUL MILAN PRIORITY 0359
RUEHFL/AMCONSUL FLORENCE PRIORITY 3921
RUEHNP/AMCONSUL NAPLES PRIORITY 4142
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 3065
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 001363 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MOPS NATO IT AF
SUBJECT: ISAF: NEXT STEPS FOR ITALY'S 1,000 TROOP COMMITMENT 
 
REF: A. ROME DAILY REPORT 12/4/09 
     ¶B. II...

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Elizabeth Dibble for Reasons 1.4 
 (B) and (D) 
 
¶1. (C)  Summary.  The Italian government has started the 
Parliamentary approval process for its increased ISAF 
commitments.  On December 10, FM Frattini and MOD La Russa 
briefed Parliament's Defense and Foreign Affairs Committees 
on the GOI's plans for a 1,000-troop surge in ISAF over the 
next ten months.  The Ministers asked Parliament to authorize 
an average troop level of 3,700 in the second half of 2010 
and La Russa pledged that the Italian contingent would not 
exceed 4,000 troops and Carabinieri.  The Defense Minister 
also announced plans to send at least 3 more attack 
helicopters, 3 transport helicopters and 3 additional C-27J 
transport aircraft to support the ISAF mission.  Senate 
President Schifani told the Ambassador on December 9 that he 
did not anticipate problems in Parliament, but that Italy may 
have to make small adjustments to its troop levels in Lebanon 
and Kosovo to accommodate the increase.  Schifani, a 
Berlusconi loyalist, told the Ambassador that the Prime 
Minister had responded immediately to President Obama's 
request for more troops because Berlusconi viscerally 
believes in the importance of the transatlantic bond and sees 
it as transcending personalities and politics.  La Russa 
stressed to parliamentarians the critical role that phone 
calls from President Obama, Secretary Clinton and Secretary 
Gates played in shaping Italy's response.  We are 
aggressively reaching out to Parliamentarians and key 
thinkers to express our thanks and encourage swift 
Parliamentary action.  Continued Washington outreach and 
engagement with Prime Minister Berlusconi and top Italian 
officials in the next two months are critical to bringing the 
GOI's major recommitment to fruition in the context of 
Italy's increasingly agitated political scene.  End Summary. 
 
Gradual Increase to 3,700, Not To Exceed 4,000 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2. (SBU) A week after the Cabinet's approval and the Brussels 
pledge of an additional 1,000 troops for Afghanistan (Ref A), 
FM Frattini and MOD La Russa briefed a joint session of the 
Chamber and Senate Foreign Affairs and Defense Committees on 
December 10 on the GOI's plan for Afghanistan.  Frattini said 
that President Obama's West Point speech set out a clear 
18-month time frame for the surge and helped shape the 
Italian decision: ""The beginning of international military 
disengagement from Afghanistan will begin in July 2011,"" he 
said.  ""The decision is made.  We will have to decide how to 
implement it, not whether to implement it.  It is a strategy 
with a clear road map, a time frame, and objectives that must 
be achieved within that time frame.""  He backed President 
Karzai's goals to have the Afghan Security Forces take over 
security within five years, to fight corruption, and to 
pursue reconciliation with insurgents prepared to accept the 
Constitution.  Italy is in Afghanistan, he said, to guarantee 
its own national security because ""jihadist infiltrations 
that we see in Europe and in Italy originate"" in the boundary 
areas between Afghanistan and Pakistan. 
 
¶3. (SBU) La Russa told the committee that NATO SYG Rasmussen 
had asked PM Berlusconi for 1,600 troops, and that the GOI 
had decided on the 1,000 figure after receiving telephone 
calls from President Obama, Secretary Clinton and Secretary 
Gates.  He said the GOI will seek Parliamentary authorization 
for an increase in the average troop level from 2,795 (the 
currently authorized annual baseline) to an average of 3,300 
in the first half of 2010 and 3,700 in the second half. 
Total troop levels will not exceed 4,000 in 2010, including 
the 200 Carabinieri police trainers pledged so far, of which 
60 are on the ground (in addition to 20 assigned to EUPOL). 
(Note: 60 of these trainers will be formed into 3 POMLTs in 
RC-West.)  La Russa also announced plans to send 3 additional 
combat helicopters to supplement the 6 already there, 3 
transport and medevac helicopters to the 7 currently there, 
and 3 C-27J air transports to the C130J already there.  Italy 
will also send improved Armored Personnel Carriers to RC-West 
and add a Role 2 field hospital for Baghdis province.  Four 
AMX fighter aircraft have replaced the two Tornados deployed 
to RC-West for reconnaissance missions.  La Russa added that 
further air and mechanized assets may be necessary to support 
the creation of a fourth Italian ""battle group"" in RC-West. 
 
Offset By Troop Savings in Kosovo and Lebanon 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4. (SBU)  La Russa said reductions in Kosovo and Lebanon will 
help compensate for the surge.  He projected that 1,300 of 
the 1,900 Italian troops in KFOR will withdraw by October 
2010, and the GOI plans to draw down 200 troops from UNIFIL 
when General Graziano turns over command to the Spanish in 
February 2010; ""however, I hope that more countries will 
become involved in Lebanon so that we may reduce our presence 
further, while still keeping as our priority the level of 
quality of our contingent."" 
 
¶5. (C) Frattini and La Russa did not discuss funding for the 
troop increase, although recent press articles on the draft 
budget law have suggested that the GOI may tap into 
additional monies expected from the fiscal amnesty law and 
from excess funds in the pension reserve system.  Although 
Italian military planners have not yet fully developed a 
detailed deployment scenario, our assessment is that the 
Italian armed forces have the capacity to deploy the proposed 
troops without serious budgetary or structural difficulties 
(Ref B). 
 
¶6. (SBU) The opposition Democratic Party (PD) remains 
supportive of the overall strategy, although critical of the 
government's rollout.  PD Foreign Affairs spokesman Piero 
Fassino said that the GOI should have informed Parliament 
before making the December 3 announcement, criticized its 
willingness to declare a withdrawal date before the start of 
the new ""pacification process,"" and urged the government to 
provide further details on its plans to reduce troops in 
Kosovo and Lebanon. 
 
Schifani: Berlusconi Did Not Hesitate to Say Yes to Obama 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶7. (C) Kicking off our outreach strategy to Parliament, the 
Ambassador thanked Senate President Schifani on December 9 
for Italy's contribution and expressed hope that the proposal 
would move quickly through Parliament.  Schifani, a 
Berlusconi loyalist, was pleased that the Italian 
announcement appears to have encouraged other ISAF members to 
contribute more.  He did not anticipate problems in 
Parliament, where the GOI enjoys a comfortable majority, but 
said that Italy may have to adjust slightly its troop levels 
in Lebanon and Kosovo to accommodate the surge.  He noted 
that on December 2, Senators from the Northern League, 
Berlusconi's junior coalition partner which has criticized 
the Afghan mission in the past, voted in favor of the latest 
decree authorizing Italian military missions abroad until the 
end of 2009.  Schifani told the Ambassador that the Prime 
Minister did not hesitate to respond positively to President 
Obama's request for more troops because the transatlantic 
bond is a key element of his world view that transcends 
parties, individuals and institutions. 
 
Comment: Berlusconi Will Need USG Political Top-Cover in the 
Months Ahead 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
- - - - - - 
 
¶8. (C) Comment: Although Berlusconi enjoys a comfortable 
parliamentary majority, his decision to announce the 
contribution before consulting with Parliament leaves him 
exposed to criticism both from within the governing coalition 
and from the Center Left opposition.  In addition, the fact 
that Italy made the largest publicly announced ISAF troop 
contribution -- and the absence of any firm troop commitment 
by Paris or Berlin -- may prompt criticism that Berlusconi 
overcommitted Italy during a time of economic crisis while 
France, Germany and others held back.  Faced with a growing 
list of political troubles -- ongoing legal battles, his 
growing open rivalry with Chamber of Deputies President Fini, 
and uncertainty over the future of the Center Right coalition 
-- Berlusconi can ill-afford to have his Afghan commitment 
turned against him.  We urge that Washington offer continued 
and regular high level contact, particularly with Berlusconi, 
Frattini and La Russa, to ensure that Italy's major 
recommitment to the ISAF mission comes to speedy and 
successful fruition.  End Comment. 
THORNE 
"