VZCZCXRO5684
PP RUEHIK
DE RUEHPS #0548/01 3481633
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 141633Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY PRISTINA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9542
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 1295
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1832
RHFMIUU/AFSOUTH NAPLES IT
RHMFISS/CDR TF FALCON
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEPGEA/CDR650THMIGP SHAPE BE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC
RUZEJAA/USNIC PRISTINA SR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRISTINA 000548 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE, INL, DRLQ 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM EAID SR KV
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: VOTING OVER, ELECTIONS FAR FROM DONE 
 
REF:  A. PRISTINA 477 
  ¶B. PRISTINA 492 
  ¶C. PRISTINA 518 
      ¶D.  PRISTINA 543 
 
PRISTINA 00000548  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Kosovo held runoff mayoral elections in 21 
municipalities on December 13.  According to early comments from 
election observers -- including 17 teams of Embassy observers -- the 
election process was generally fair and transparent, but there are 
allegations of isolated irregularities.  Preliminary results from 
the Central Elections Commission (CEC) show that the Prime 
Minister's Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) leads in 11 
municipalities.  The President's Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) 
leadQin five races, and leading opposition party the Alliance for 
the Future of Kosovo (AAK) leads in three.  The Serb Independent 
Liberal Party (SLS) has a commanding lead in its race against PDK in 
the Serb-majority municipality of Shterpce/Strpce.  An independent 
candidate, Rufki Suma won in Hani i Elezit/Djeneral Jankovic, a new 
municipality holding elections for the first time.  Close races in 
Lipjan/Lipljan, Rahovec/Orahovac, and Prizren show that there are 
more uncounted conditional ballots than the vote difference between 
the candidates; PDK leads LDK in each of these races. 
 
¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY CONTINUED: Political parties have 48 hours 
following the close of the polls to file complaints with the 
independent Elections Complaints and Appeals Commission (ECAC), 
which has not yet received any complaints.  We expect the LDK to 
file complaints in regard to its close election defeats against the 
PDK, and this may yet add increased tension to a an already fragile 
relations between the two coalition partners.  It is still too early 
to conduct a final analysis of the 2007 municipal elections, but it 
appears that PDK remains the dominant political party in Kosovo; the 
LDK is bouncing back after disastrous elections in 2007; and, the 
AAK, after victory in Suhareka/Suva Reka can now call itself a 
national political party.  All of this will set the stage for 
interesting national politics early next year as all parties 
reassess their interests and relative positions.  High Serb turnout 
in Shterpce/Strpce reinforces a trend of growing Serb engagement 
with Kosovo institutions.  A table of results follows in paragraph 
¶11.  END SUMMARY 
 
ELECTIONS PROCEED SMOOTHLY AMID SOME IRREGULARITIES 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) Kosovo held runoff mayoral elections December 13 for 21 
municipalities where no candidate received a majority during the 
first round of elections on November 15.  The Central Elections 
Commission (CEC) reported to us that there were no major disruptions 
to the process, and more than 98 percent of polling stations opened 
according to plan.  As expected, turnout was down compared to the 
first round, with 376,337 voters (37.87% of the voters list) turning 
out at the polls compared to 449,537 voters (45.23%) during the 
first round in the same 21 municipalities. 
 
¶4. (SBU) International, domestic, and Embassy observers reported no 
significant irregularities on election day.  In a statement to the 
media on December 13, the Kosovo NGO coalition Democracy in Action, 
which had observers at each of the polling stations, assessed that 
the electoral process was generally credible and in accordance with 
universal standards for free elections.  That said, irregularities 
did occur.  Observers from the European Network of Election 
Monitoring Organizations (ENEMO) told us that they were concerned 
about several instances across the country where one polling station 
in a polling center holding multiple stations featured significantly 
larger turnout than the other stations.  Embassy observers also 
noticed the same phenomenon in some locations throughout the day. 
 
¶5. (SBU) There were also indications that some polling locations in 
Novoberde/Novo Brdo -- recently expanded according to the Ahtisaari 
Plan to include more Serbs -- prevented Serbs who were not on the 
voters list from casting conditional ballots and turned away some 
Serbs who presented IDs not issued by Kosovo or UNMIK.  In general, 
though, the various observer missions saw no signs of widespread 
fraud, and ENEMO's monitoring director in Kosovo, Darko Aleksov from 
Macedonia, remarked to us on December 15 that Kosovo's elections -- 
 
PRISTINA 00000548  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
to his surprise, and apparent lament -- surpassed Macedonia's most 
recent elections in fairness and process. 
 
PRELIMINARY RESULTS SHOW CLOSE RACES 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) The CEC released preliminary results (not including 
conditional ballots) in the early hours of December 14.  According 
to these initial results, Prime Minister Thaci's Democratic Party of 
Kosovo (PDK) was the big winner, leading its opponents in 11 mayor's 
offices.  Coalition partner the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) is 
ahead in five races, and Ramush Haradinaj's Alliance for the Future 
of Kosovo (AAK) leads in three runoffs.  The Serb Independent 
Liberal Party (SLS) won in Shterpce/Strpce municipality, and 
independent candidate Rufki Suma won in Hani i Elezit/Djeneral 
Jankovic municipality (see table of provisional results at paragraph 
eleven). 
 
¶7. (SBU) For now, these results are nothing more than a preliminary 
canvas of polling stations.  The CEC has yet to count conditional 
ballots, and the number of conditional ballots cast in three 
municipalities -- Lipjan/Lipljan, Prizren, and Rahovec/Orahovac -- 
exceeds the difference in votes between the two candidates.  In each 
of these cases, the races feature a PDK candidate leading a tight 
race against an LDK opponent.  LDK is attempting to discredit the 
results, alleging fraud and duplicate Results and Reconciliation 
Forms, and we expect to see recounts at several polling stations 
around the country.  As LDK pursues its claims in these close races 
against PDK, we can also expect to see increasing tensions in the 
strained relationship between these two central government coalition 
partners. 
 
WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE COMING DAYS 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Political parties have 48 hours after the close of polls to 
lodge a complaint with the independent Election Complaints and 
Appeals Commission (ECAC).  The ECAC had received no complaints as 
of noon on December 14, but we expect to see parties file a number 
of complaints prior to the deadline.  The ECAC must publish a 
decision on complaints within five days of receipt.  The CEC can 
certify results once the ECAC and the Constitutional Court have 
resolved all outstanding complaints and appeals.  At a very minimum, 
we do not expect to see final, certified results until the week of 
December 21, and the likelihood of recounts and investigations 
suggests that it may take several weeks for the CEC to certify the 
results of these runoffs. 
 
COMMENT: WHAT THE PROVISIONAL RESULTS TELL US 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) It is still too early to wrap up Kosovo's 2009 municipal 
elections.  There are still too many close races that may yet change 
once all of the ballots are tabulated and rechecked, and complaints 
and challenges addressed.  Generally, it appears that PDK is still 
the dominant political party in Kosovo, at this point winning or 
leading in 16 of the 36 mayoral races.  LDK rebounded from its 
crushing defeat in 2007 and looks like it will win a minimum of 7 
municipalities, including critical pickups in Kamenice/Kamenica and 
Obilic.  And, depending how the conditional ballots fall over the 
next few days, LDK could pick up another two or three municipalities 
at PDK's expense.  AAK has increased its number of mayor's offices 
from three to seven, a result that demonstrates it can compete 
throughout the country, not just in Ramush Haradinaj's Western 
Kosovo back yard.  There is little doubt that parties are already 
reassessing their relative strengths based on returns from both 
rounds of elections, and discussions between parties are likely to 
commence soon after the new year.  A government reshuffle and/or 
early general elections cannot be ruled out. 
 
¶10. (SBU) SLS added to its credibility with victory in 
Shterpce/Strpce and will field mayors in three Serb-majority 
municipalities, including the newly decentralized municipalities of 
Kllokot/Klokot and Gracanice/Gracanica.  In the other Ahtisaari 
municipalities, a Serb won in Ranillug/Ranilug, and an Albanian won 
in Novoberde/Novo Brdo.  While the Novoberde/Novo Brdo result is 
unfortunate, it may have been unavoidable given that municipality's 
 
PRISTINA 00000548  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
evenly split demographic composition, and it does not diminish from 
the positive steps we have seen in Kosovo Serb engagement with 
Kosovo institutions.  The 4355 Serb voters that cast ballots for the 
SLS in Shterpce/Strpce on December 13 far outstrips the number of 
Serbs who participated in elections nationwide in 2007.  With a 
generally sound electoral process and increasing Serb participation, 
these elections look like a part of Kosovo's success story. 
 
PROVISIONAL RESULTS 
------------------- 
 
¶11. (U) The following is a tabulation of provisional results from 
the 21 mayoral runoffs held on Sunday, December 13.  These results 
do not include uncounted conditional ballots and are subject to 
change.  Municipalities where conditional ballots exceed the 
difference between the parties are marked with a star (*). 
 
Municipality       First Place      Second Place 
                    Party (%)         Party (%) 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
Gjilan/Gnjilane      PDK (51.4)        LDK (48.6) 
Dragash/Dragas       PDK (53.3)        LDK (46.7) 
Istog/Istok          LDK (70.8)        AAK (29.2) 
Kacanik              PDK (57.9)        AAK (42.1) 
Klina                PDK (56.3)        AAK (43.7) 
Kamenica             LDK (54.1)        PDK (45.9) 
Mitrovica            PDK (53.0)        AKR (47.0) 
*Lipjan/Lipljan      PDK (50.5)        LDK (49.5) 
Novo Brdo/Novoberde  LDK (80.9)        SNSD (19.1) 
Obilic               LDK (51.9)        PDK (48.1) 
*Rahovec/Orahovac    PDK (50.8)        LDK (49.2) 
Peje/Pec             AAK (76.7)        LDD (23.3) 
Podujeve/Podujevo    LDK (66.5)        PDK (33.5) 
*Prizren             PDK (50.0)        LDK (50.0) 
Shterpce/Strpce      SLS (65.0)        PDK (35.0) 
Suhareka/Suva Reka   AAK (52.4)        PDK (47.6) 
Viti/Vitina          PDK (55.2)        LDD (44.8) 
Vushtrri/Vucitrn     PDK (63.5)        AAK (36.5) 
Malisheve/Malisevo   PDK (61.8)        LDK (38.2) 
Junik                AAK (56.7)        LDK (43.3) 
Hani i Elezit        Suma (53.3)       PDK (46.7) 
 
DELL