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Reference ID	Created	Released	Classification	Origin
09PRISTINA543	2009-12-09 17:24	2011-08-26 00:00	UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY	Embassy Pristina

VZCZCXRO1715
PP RUEHIK
DE RUEHPS #0543/01 3431724
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 091724Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY PRISTINA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9530
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 1289
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1826
RHFMIUU/AFSOUTH NAPLES IT
RHMFISS/CDR TF FALCON
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEPGEA/CDR650THMIGP SHAPE BE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC
RUZEJAA/USNIC PRISTINA SR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PRISTINA 000543 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE, INL, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM EAID SR KV
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: SECOND ROUND OF MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS COULD SET STAGE 
FOR EARLY NATIONAL ELECTIONS 
 
REF:  A. PRISTINA 477 
  ¶B. PRISTINA 492 
  ¶C. PRISTINA 518 
 
PRISTINA 00000543  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Central Election Commission (CEC) certified 
the November 15 first round mayoral election results on December 4, 
which sets the stage for runoff elections on December 13 in the 21 
municipalities where no mayoral candidate won an outright majority. 
The election results, thus far, from the November 15 municipal 
elections illuminate stark shifts to the political field being 
contested between Kosovo's three major parties.  Ramush Haradinaj's 
opposition Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) enjoyed a large 
leap in prominence and credibility in the first round, and is the 
elections' biggest victor.  The Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) 
improved over its 2007 showing and could enjoy more municipal 
victories thanks to alliances for the second round with AAK.  The 
ruling Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) again showed that it is the 
largest and most stable party in Kosovo, but it did not dominate in 
the face of larger-than-expected turnout.  PDK will contest 16 
runoff elections and faces stiff competition from both AAK and LDK. 
Both the New Kosovo Alliance (AKR) and the Democratic League of 
Dardania (LDD) fared poorly, with significant collapses in voter 
support.  The outcome of the second round of voting December 13 may 
embolden AAK and LDK to force early elections, perhaps in the first 
six months of the new year, with each hoping that an AAK-LDK 
partnership can force PDK from power.  A 
municipality-by-municipality tabulation of mayoral results follows 
in paragraph nine.  END SUMMARY 
 
CEC CERTIFIES MAYORAL RESULTS 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Kosovo's Central Elections Commission (CEC), on December 4, 
certified the first-round results for mayoral elections held on 
November 15. (Note: See final results table in paragraph nine.  End 
Note) The final first round results set up runoff elections in 21 
municipalities.  Prime Minister Hashim Thaci's Democratic Party of 
Kosovo (PDK) will compete in 16 of the runoffs, President Sejdiu's 
Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) in 11, and Ramush Haradinaj's 
opposition Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) in seven.  PDK 
will face its coalition partner LDK in nine races and the AAK in 
four.  Those races where the PDK faces LDK or AAK will draw special 
attention, as LDK and AAK have entered into a controversial election 
alliance that prompted Thaci to threaten on November 19 that he was 
kicking LDK out of the ruling coalition (Ref C).  Thaci ultimately 
changed his mind, but enmity between PDK and LDK remains, and many 
speculate that AAK, with the support of LDK voters, can pick up some 
extra mayor's offices in these runoffs. 
 
GJAKOVA/DJAKOVICA SETTLED (FOR NOW) 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) The CEC's certification came amid a tense debate between 
its Chair, Nesrin Lushta, and New Kosovo Alliance (AKR) 
representative Fadil Malloku, who argued that the CEC should not 
certify results until the Supreme Court had reviewed legal 
challenges that AKR had filed regarding allegations of fraud in 
Gjakova/Djakovica municipality.  AKR's Mimoza Kusari-Lila, in her 
first run for political office, fought a tough campaign in 
Gjakova/Djakovica, but lost to incumbent AAK mayor Pal Lekaj amid 
controversy over alleged vote fraud.  Though the Election Complaints 
and Appeals Commission (ECAC) invalidated the results in several 
polling stations based on AKR complaints, it was not enough to 
change the result.  Kosovo's election law, however, only mandates 
that the CEC confirm that there are no outstanding election cases at 
the ECAC and the Constitutional Court prior to certifying results. 
With the campaign period for December 13 mayoral runoff elections 
due to start, the CEC was compelled to certify results on December 
4, with commission members voting to certify results over Malloku's 
objections. 
 
AAK: POISED TO BREAKOUT 
----------------------- 
 
 
PRISTINA 00000543  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) AAK won 95,122 votes nationwide, or 15.1 percent of the 
vote, an historic leap forward for a party that had never received 
more than 62,000 votes or 10 percent of the vote nationwide.  In 
addition to Gjakova/Djakovica, AAK won outright the mayoralty in 
Decan/Decane.  It should coast to an easy second-round victory in 
Peje/Pec, another AAK stronghold, and Junik, where it fell just 
short of an outright majority in the first round.  AAK's primary 
focus on December 13 will be Suhareke/Suva Reka, where its mayoral 
candidate Blerim Kuci, a former LDK heavyweight, heads into the 
runoff with a narrow lead over his PDK opponent.  This race will 
test both AAK's attempt to crystallize for the public that its 
appeal can extend beyond western Kosovo and its second round 
alliance with the LDK.  As December 13 draws near, the  alliance 
with AAK is proving difficult to stomach for some in LDK, and we 
have seen sporadic back-sliding in LDK support for certain AAK 
municipal candidates.  This dynamic is visible in Suhareke/Suva Reka 
where LDK suffered its only incumbent loss of the election to LDK 
turncoat Kuci.  AAK is also counting on its LDK alliance to turn its 
strong second place showing in Kline/Klina (where it trailed PDK by 
only five percent) into a runoff victory. 
 
LDK: CONFUSING SURVIVAL FOR VICTORY 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) LDK party leaders were exultant over their performance in 
the first round of municipal elections, although LDK's jubilation is 
rooted more in the fact that the party stopped the electoral 
hemorrhaging of 2007 than in any clear electoral gains.  LDK entered 
November's elections holding on to five mayoralties and can 
comfortably predict that it will hold on to the same number after 
December's run-off elections in Podujeve/Podujevo, Istog/Istok, 
Novoberde/Novo Brdo and Fushe Kosovo/Kosovo Polje in addition to its 
impressive first-round victory in Pristina.  However, any further 
pick-ups will be hard-fought slugfests against PDK where LDK is 
battling from behind to overcome electoral deficits ranging from a 
couple points to more than ten points trailing PDK in nine municipal 
run-off elections.  Strong second-place showings combined with its 
tactical alliance with AAK give LDK its best opportunities for 
run-off gains in Prizren, Lipjan/Lipljan, and Dragash/Dragas with 
tougher prospects in Obiliq/Obilic and Gjilan/Gnjilane.  Public 
feuding before and after November 15 with its coalition partner PDK, 
arguably, is giving LDK a boost of confidence, as it has stood up to 
its larger, stronger partner and reenergized its party base with a 
newly self-assured LDK leadership that is, at least temporarily, in 
rare fighting form heading into runoff elections. 
 
PDK: WINNING AND STUMBLING AT THE SAME TIME 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) In 2007, PDK won 18 of the 26 municipalities where election 
results were certified.  The party's overwhelming municipal 
electoral victories in 2007 left PDK with a large realm to defend 
and little room for improvement this year.  PDK's reliable voter 
base gave the party more votes than any other party in the first 
round, but it won few mayor's offices outright.  It does, however, 
go into the second round with first place finishes in all of the 
mayor's offices it won in 2007 except for Viti/Vitina where it 
trailed LDD in a close race.  The experience from prior municipal 
elections shows that the leading party going into run-off elections 
almost always wins in the second round, as supporters for 
non-contending parties typically do not show up at the polls.  This 
year may be different, however.  The LDK-AAK tactical alliance for 
the upcoming runoff elections are troubling developments for PM 
Thaci and his PDK.  If LDK and AAK can convince their supporters to 
cross party lines, then PDK stands a plausible chance of seeing its 
incumbent mayors lose in Prizren, Obiliq/Obilic, Kline/Klina, 
Lipjan/Lipljan, Kamenice/Kamenica, Dragash/Dragas, Gjilan/Gnjilane 
and possibly Rahovec/Orahovac. 
 
AKR AND LDD: SINKING SHIPS 
-------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Behgjet Pacolli's AKR and Nexhat Daci's Democratic League 
of Dardania (LDD) both flopped in November's municipal elections. 
The parties suffered substantial drops in voter support despite 
joining forces in an election alliance.  Neither party won any 
 
PRISTINA 00000543  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
municipality outright, and each has only one meaningful municipal 
race to contest going into the run-off elections.  AKR's only 
candidate left standing for the runoffs is a local activist in 
Mitrovica, Nexhmedin Spahiu, who has told us that AKR is withholding 
its support for his candidacy over political differences, and Spahiu 
has poor odds to unseat PDK from the mayor's office.  LDD's 
performance was even more crushing, given that it inherited 
significant local party structures throughout Kosovo after it broke 
away from LDK.  LDD will compete against PDK in a second round 
context in Viti/Vitina.  Whatever the outcome there, LDD party 
leader Nexhat Daci could face a leadership challenge because of 
LDD's poor showing in the elections. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Both AAK and LDK are animated going into the second round 
of municipal elections, and their resurgence has thrown PDK an 
unexpected curve.  AAK, long frustrated by its inability to 
challenge PDK from its narrow political base, now sees the 
opportunity to grow into a competitive, nationwide party.  LDK is 
buoyed by its self-perceptions that it has returned from the dead, 
and it has found the confidence to stand up to PDK browbeating, a 
notable development for an LDK leadership not known for its 
political courage.  The tactical alliance between AAK and LDK for 
these runoffs could prove to be all sound and fury, and it will 
signify nothing if it fails to produce municipal victories for both 
parties.  PDK undoubtedly will come out with more mayors and more 
votes than either AAK or LDK, but if the smaller two parties can 
overcome old animosities they could see opportunities to work 
together that will almost certainly spur early elections, perhaps in 
the first six months of 2010. 
 
BY THE NUMERS 
------------- 
 
¶9. (U) The following is a tabulation of all 21 municipal run-off 
elections scheduled for Sunday, December 13. 
 
Municipality       First Place      Second Place 
                    Party (%)         Party (%) 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
Gjilan/Gnjilane      PDK (38.7)        LDK (27.6) 
Dragash/Dragas       PDK (39.5)        LDK (37.2) 
Istog/Istok          LDK (47.5)        AAK (21.5) 
Kacanik              PDK (48.4)        AAK (26.6) 
Kline/Klina          PDK (36.8)        AAK (31.9) 
Kamenice/Kamenica    PDK (33.2)        LDK (21.7) 
Mitrovice/Mitrovica  PDK (39.2)        AKR (22.6) 
Lipjan/Lipljan       PDK (42.7)        LDK (39.1) 
Novoberde/Novo Brdo  LDK (43.7)        SNSD (11.5) 
Obiliq/Obilic        PDK (32.5)        LDK (24.4) 
Rahovec/Orahovac     PDK (36.0)        LDK (22.8) 
Peje/Pec             AAK (43.7)        LDD (15.9) 
Podujeve/Podujevo    LDK (49.9)        PDK (30.6) 
Prizren              PDK (32.3)        LDK (29.7) 
Shterpce/Strpce      SLS (40.4)        PDK (24.3) 
Suhareke/Suva Reka   AAK (34.0)        PDK (32.6) 
Viti/Vitina          LDD (33.3)        PDK (30.0) 
Vushtrri/Vucitrn     PDK (49.0)        AAK (26.4) 
Malisheve/Malisevo   PDK (47.0)        LDK (32.2) 
Junik                AAK (49.6)        LDK (32.7) 
Hani i Elezit        Suma (44.3)       PDK (36.5) 
 
Candidates won an outright majority in 15 municipalities where there 
is no need for a runoff. 
 
Municipality       First Place      Second Place 
                    Party (%)         Party (%) 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
Decan/Decani         AAK (67.8)        LDK (18.7) 
Gjakove/Djakovica    AAK (51.9)        AKR (41.5) 
Gllogovc/Glogovac    PDK (90.5)        AAK (9.5) 
Fushe Kosove/ 
 
PRISTINA 00000543  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
Kosovo Polje         LDK (56.9)        PDK (24.9) 
Leposavic/Leposaviq  AAK (100) [34 votes] 
Pristina             LDK (57.2)        AKR (22.3) 
Skenderaj/Serbica    PDK (85)          LDD (10.8) 
Shtime/Stimlje       PDK (50.6)        LDK (25.9) 
Ferizaj/Urosevac     PDK (50.5)        AKR (16.3) 
Zubin Potok          PDK (53.3)        AAK (46.7) 
Zvecan               AAK (100) [33 votes] 
Mamushe/Mamusha      KDTP (80.1)       AKR (12.1) 
Gracanica            SLS (60.9)        Vidovdan (12.1) 
Ranilug/Ranillug     GIZOR (71.1)      SKMS (28.9) 
Kllokot/Klokot       SLS (100) 
 
DELL

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Viewing cable 09PRISTINA543, KOSOVO: SECOND ROUND OF MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS COULD SET STAGE