VZCZCXRO6275
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLU #0756 3490914
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 150914Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY LUANDA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5848
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUANDA 000756 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2024 
TAGS: PGOV AO
SUBJECT: RUMORS SWIRL ABOUT GOVERNMENT RESHUFFLE 
 
REF: LUANDA 740 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Dan Mozena, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) At the opening of the MPLA party congress on 7 
December, President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos scolded 
unscrupulous and corrupt party members who have used 
political power to become rich (see reftel). While some of 
our contacts take a cynical view of such pronouncements, 
others, like World Bank senior economist and one of Luanda's 
most astute observers Ricardo Gazel (strictly protect), are 
reading more nuance into Dos Santos's speech.  Gazel, who has 
excellent contacts at the highest levels of Angolan economic 
decision-making, told the DCM on 9 December that he believes 
Dos Santos is serious about curbing corruption, if only out 
of self-interest.  Gazel said Angola's current fiscal 
situation simply cannot afford today's level of corruption. 
Dos Santos, he said, realizes corruption has now permeated 
all levels of government, and that this is more unsustainable 
than unacceptable.  While the President would work to curb 
corruption generally, Gazel maintained that corruption among 
the highest echelons of Angola's political elite would likely 
continue. 
 
¶2. (C) Both Gazel and Mamadou Beye, a senior Chevron Angola 
official (strictly protect), also spoke to DCM about rumors 
of a significant cabinet reshuffle, which would most likely 
occur some time after the January 31, 2010 finale of the CAN 
Soccer Cup.  Gazel told the DCM that Minister of Finance 
Eduardo Leopoldo Severim de Morais is about to be fired and 
should be because "he knows nothing," as well as the Minister 
of Planning, Ana Dias Lourenco, whom he described as 
notoriously difficult.  Beye has been told that the Minister 
of Public Works Higino Carneiro and Energy Minister Emanuela 
Afonso Vieira Lopes were both on their way out; Beye appeared 
happy with these fates, if true, noting that both needed to 
go, but especially the Energy Minister, whom he described as 
"absolutely terrible" and whose husband is personally 
benefiting too much from her position. 
 
¶3. (C) As for the million dollar question, "Will Dos Santos 
ever step down?" Gazel has heard that Dos Santos will not run 
in 2012, nor will he ensure a family member follows him. 
(NOTE: As an aside, Gazel noted that Dos Santos daughter, 
Isabel, whose name is occasionally mentioned as a possible 
successor, is one of the most savvy businesspersons he's ever 
met, even joking that Harvard should come do a case study on 
her.  END NOTE)  Instead, Gazel said Dos Santos will choose a 
Vice-President who will be his heir apparent. Dos Santos, 
according to Gazel, is considering three men for the job: 
Speaker of National Assembly Fernando da Piedade dos Santos, 
Prime Minister Paolo Kassamo, and the Minister of Economy 
Manuel Nunes, Jr. Gazel's first choice would be Nunes, noting 
he is extremely sharp, has a PhD in economics, and is one of 
the few people in Angola with whom he can talk real economics. 
 
¶4. (C) COMMENT. Embassy passes this information on for the 
for-what-it's-worth category and as a glimpse into Luanda's 
always hyper-active rumor mill. The question of Dos Santos' 
successor is a perpetual topic of conversation and 
speculation, and rumors of ministers' comings and goings are 
always hot on the Luanda chat circuit.  Post cannot verify 
any of them.  Most would welcome the departure of Planning 
Minister Ana Dias Lourenco, a deep and persistent thorn in 
the side of the World Bank, which must engage through her 
hostile and fully dysfunctional ministry.  Despite the rumors 
of her political demise, however, Post notes that she has a 
strong personal link to Dos Santos and was, in fact, just 
re-elected to the Central Committee.  Given our ongoing 
engagements with both the Finance and Energy Ministers, their 
departures would necessitate our rebuilding relationships 
with successors who may or may not be as open to engaging 
with us as the incumbents. 
MOZENA