VZCZCXRO0298
RR RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHSK RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHKV #2169/01 3521242
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 181242Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY KYIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8996
RUEHPNH/NVC PORTSMOUTH 0039
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 002169 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR CA/FPP (BILLINGSR), CA/VO/F/P, DS/CR/VG, EUR/UMB, G/TIP 
DEPT ALSO PASS TO KCC 
DHS FOR CIS/FDNS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: CVIS KFRD CPAS CMGT ASEC UP
SUBJECT:  UKRAINE: 2009 SUMMER WORK AND TRAVEL VALIDATION STUDY 
RESULTS-OVERSTAYS UP 
 
REF: A) KYIV 1102 B) KYIV 1271 
 
¶1. (U) SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Summary: Embassy Kyiv concluded a validation study of J1 
summer work and travel/camp counselor ("SWT") visas issued for the 
2009 program. During this time period, Post issued 7011 SWT visas. 
The validation study showed a total overstay rate of 11.3 percent, 
with a 3.8 percent margin of error.  The overstay rate following the 
2008 SWT season was 6.4, while the overstay rate from the 2007 SWT 
season was 14.3 percent.  Thus, Post experienced an increase in the 
SWT overstay rate this season, although the rate was still lower 
than the 2007 season.  This trend tracks with the economic 
fluctuations in Ukraine.  Ukraine was at the peak of its economic 
growthin 2008, but by the beginning of the 2009 season was 
suffering the effects of the worst economic contraction in the 
Central and Eastern Europe (Ref A). End summary. 
 
SAMPLE, DATA COLLECTION, AND METHODOLOGY 
 
¶3. (U) Post conducted its validation study on 608 randomly selected 
applicants from the pool of 7011 J1 SWT issuances from January 13 to 
June 20, 2009. Post submitted the sample group to CA/FPPfor 
computer verification of entry/exit records.  In two cases (.3 
percent), computer records showed no travel by the applicant.  Post 
refused approximately 1200 SWT applicants (15 percent of all SWT 
applicants) during the 2009 season, most often because the 
applicants failed to demonstrate sufficient ability to speak 
English. (Ref B) The validation study was conducted with a 95 
percent confidence rate and a margin of error of 3.8 percent. 
 
RESULTS 
 
¶4. (U) As of November 19, 2009, Post confirmed that 11.3 percent (69 
out of the 608 in the sample) of applicants issued during the study 
period stayed in the United States. Most of these overstays (41 out 
of 69, or 6.7 percent of the total study sample) were "illegal" 
overstays, meaning the applicants in question did not adjust status. 
 The remaining 28 adjusted to B2 status, F1 status, or were pending 
an adjustment at the conclusion of the study period. 
 
¶5. (U) The 11.3 percent overstay rate reflects a dramatic increase 
from last year's SWT overstay rate of 6.4 percent (2.8 percent 
illegal, 3.5 percent legal), but a decrease over the 2007 SWT 
overstay rate of 14.3 percent (7.7 percent illegal, 6.6 percent 
legal). 
 
PROFILE OF TRAVELERS WHO OVERSTAYED 
 
¶6. (SBU) Participants who overstayed in 2009 were more likely to be 
repeat SWT participants, female, from more economically depressed 
regions in western and central Ukraine, and/or in their fourth or 
fifth year of university. (Note: In the Ukrainian system, the final 
year of university could be either the fourth or fifth year. End 
note.)  Nearly half of all students who stayed in the United States 
were humanities majors, and students intending to work in warmer 
southern or western states were more likely to overstay. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Post reports below the statistics concerning the 2009 SWT 
travelers who stayed in the United States. The first column contains 
the demographic category in question; the second column contains the 
percentage of the study sample comprised of this demographic; the 
third column contains the percentage of this demographic that 
overstayed; and the fourth column contains the percentage of all 
overstays represented by the demographic in question. 
 
Gender:  Pct.   Pct. who  Pct. of all 
      of sample: overstayed: overstays: 
 
Male    42.4   7.4  37.7 
Female   57.6   6.6  62.3 
 
Year in Univ.: 
 
1st-year student  1.0   16.7   1.4 
2nd-year student 28.9     6.3  15.9 
3rd-year student 43.1     7.3  27.5 
4th-year student 16.3   22.2  31.9 
5th-year student 10.5   23.4  21.7 
6th-year student   .2          100.0       1.4 
 
Major: 
 
Humanities  41.8   12.6  46.4 
Business   34.4     7.7  23.2 
 
KYIV 00002169  002 OF 002 
 
 
Engineering  14.0   12.9  15.9 
IT     4.9   16.7   7.2 
Science    4.8   13.8    5.8 
Agriculture    .2          100.0    1.4 
 
Region of 
Ukraine: 
 
Zakarpattia    .8   60.0   4.3 
Chernivtsi   2.0   41.7   7.2 
Kirovograd    .7   25.0   1.4 
Ternopil    4.1   24.0   8.7 
Lugansk    3.5   19.0   5.8 
Lviv     7.9   16.7  11.6 
Mikolaiv    2.0   16.7   2.9 
Vinnitsa    1.0   16.7   1.4 
Zhitomyr    2.1   15.4   2.9 
Kharkiv    8.1   14.3  10.1 
Cherkassy    3.5   14.3   4.3 
Kherson    2.5   13.3   2.9 
Ivano Frankivsk  4.4   11.1   4.3 
Poltava    1.5   11.1   1.4 
Zaporizhzhya   3.1   10.5   2.9 
Sumy     3.9    8.3   2.9 
Dnipropetrovsk   6.6    7.5   4.3 
Kyiv (incl. city) 24.8    7.3  15.9 
Odesa    3.0    5.6   1.4 
Donetsk    3.1    5.3   1.4 
Crimea    5.4    3.0   1.4 
Chernigiv    1.0    0.0   0.0 
 
Top overstay 
destinations: 
 
Tennessee    1.0   33.3   2.9 
Louisiana    1.2   28.6   2.9 
Georgia     .7   25.0   1.4 
California   3.3   20.0   5.8 
Nevada     .8   20.0   1.4 
Colorado    1.8   18.2   2.9 
Massachusetts   3.8   17.4   5.8 
Wisconsin    3.0   16.7   4.3 
Illinois    1.0   16.7   1.4 
Alabama    1.0   16.7   1.4 
 
Post also collected data on overstay rates by student travel agency 
and university, to assist future adjudications. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment: Though Post tightened its anti-fraud screening of 
applicants this year (Ref B), the overstay rate increased. Post 
attributes this increase primarily to the widespread effects of the 
economic crisis in Ukraine, which sharply increased unemployment in 
Ukraine. (Ref A) Relatively few students remained in the United 
States at the height of Ukraine's economic growth in 2008. Post will 
use this data to further refine its screening procedures, anti-fraud 
efforts, and SWT adjudications in 2010. Post has already initiated 
SWT outreach, including new outreach directly to students, to 
educate SWT agencies and students about the visa process and the 
consequences of fraud. End comment. 
 
TEFFT