VZCZCXRO7600
RR RUEHAST RUEHCHI RUEHDH RUEHDT RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHNH RUEHPB RUEHPOD
RUEHSL RUEHTM RUEHTRO
DE RUEHHM #0674/01 3501126
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 161126Z DEC 09
FM AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6156
INFO RUEHHI/AMEMBASSY HANOI 4051
RUEHBK/AMEMBASSY BANGKOK 0461
RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 0005
RUEHSV/AMEMBASSY SUVA 0001
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/DEPT OF INTERIOR WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEAEPA/HQ EPA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY 6399

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HO CHI MINH CITY 000674 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR OES, EAP/MLS AND EAP/PD 
USAID FOR LJOHNSTON 
INTERIOR FOR USGS/NAT WETLANDS CENTER/JPOWELL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV ECON ENRG EAGR SOCI PREL PGOV EAID TH VN
SUBJECT: LOWER MEKONG INITIATIVE: FORECAST MEKONG IN THE DELTA 
 
REF: A) BANGKOK 3117 B) PHNOM PENH 747 C) SECRETARY 14 D) HCMC 665 
 
HO CHI MIN 00000674  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary:  One practical byproduct of the Secretary's 
Lower Mekong Initiative (LMI) is the U.S. Geological Survey's 
(USGS) effort to help the Mekong countries assess how climate 
change and human activities impact the Mekong basin.  USGS held 
a Forecast Mekong workshop in Can Tho city December 8-12 for 
regional scientists and officials.  Despite impressive 
environmental modeling by local scientists of some aspects of 
issues facing the Mekong basin, the workshop highlighted the 
ongoing need for better data integration and coordination -- 
something that USGS provides -- especially because some 
government researchers and academics face difficulties with 
releasing data.  Chinese participation proved invaluable for 
integrating upper and lower Mekong water-management issues, 
especially as hydropower and food security emerged as dominant 
issues.  Participants will now submit detailed proposals for 
research gaps and data integration needs.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
SCIENCE WORKSHOP IN THE DELTA 
 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) The Delta Research and Global Observation Network 
(DRAGON) Institute-Mekong at Can Tho University is located at an 
important urban crossroads in Vietnam's Mekong delta.  On 
December 9-12 DRAGON hosted a conference attended by more than 
75 participants, including Vietnamese provincial and lower 
Mekong government officials, NGOs, scientists from the 
University Network for Wetland Research and Training in the 
Mekong region, regional State Department and Consulate Ho Chi 
Minh representatives and USGS scientists and program managers. 
The workshop's goal was for scientists from Laos, Cambodia, 
Thailand, and Vietnam to identify top research priorities, data 
integration needs and information gaps in the Mekong basin.  A 
government wetlands institute administrator/scientist from 
China's Yunnan province also attended. 
 
 
 
PRIORITIES: MODELING RICE, FISH, FLOODS, INFRASTRUCTURE 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶3. (U) Country presentations focused on water quality and 
sedimentation, hydropower, climate-change adaptation, and 
fisheries productivity.  Laos stressed economic development 
needs, which meant hydropower dams; Laos could build as many as 
60 dams on the mainstream or tributaries.  Cambodia noted 
concerns over effects from planned Laotian dams but asserted 
that Cambodian dams would be on distant tributaries with less 
downstream impact.  The Vietnamese presenter (from the Ministry 
of Natural Resources and Environment) stated that Vietnam 
opposed upriver mainstream dams; other Vietnamese scientists 
echoed his assertion of negative downstream effects.  Both 
Thailand and Vietnam (the two largest rice exporters in the 
world) noted the vulnerability of their rice crops to changing 
weather patterns caused by climate change.  For the Thai 
presenter, plans to divert river flow by upstream countries 
means that for the first time on the Mekong, large amounts of 
water for irrigating dry season rice could become a "game 
changer" in trans-boundary issues.  Several participants listed 
water quality as a looming issue due to impacts from 
agriculture, chemical runoffs, and deforestation.  All agreed 
that climate change could damage agriculture and fisheries 
productivity, especially through sea-level rise and 
acidification and through salinization of delta rice paddies. 
 
 
 
WHAT WE SAW, WHAT THEY WANT, WHAT THE U.S. CAN OFFER 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
 
HO CHI MIN 00000674  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶4. (U) We noted several areas of possible USGS collaboration 
with Mekong region scientists.   Although substantial data 
collection and sophisticated modeling within the Mekong 
countries already exists, the USGS Forecast Mekong initiative 
can provide needed satellite data and data integration.  Given 
the physical similarities between the Mississippi River and the 
Mekong, the U.S. can provide lessons learned from Mississippi 
management history, particularly in areas of dams, 
channelization and sedimentation.  That local presenters 
displayed solid science but a lack of ability to integrate data 
for decision makers provides an opportunity for U.S. experts to 
work with local partners to integrate technical information and 
policy decision-making. 
 
 
 
Field trips: Pesticides and Fish Feces 
 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) A visit to local rice fields showed over 90 rice strains 
in use, but also indicated a lack of preparation for 
climate-change-related threats such as salinization and new 
invasive alien species.  A visit to various "cage" (in-river) 
fish farms dramatized the huge amount of unregulated fish waste 
being dumped into regional waterways and how such industrial 
agricultural pollution can combine with the effects from climate 
change and hydropower development to threaten local livelihoods. 
 
 
 
 
CHINA AND THE UPPER MEKONG 
 
------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Dr. Kun Tian, ecology professor at the Chinese 
Southwest Forestry Center (SFWC), gave a presentation on water 
management in the Chinese section of the Mekong.  His 
presentation showed high fish counts, biodiversity and the same 
conflicts over sustainable development that is occurring in the 
lower Mekong.  The central government had taken over several key 
water-quality sites to employ conflict-management systems that 
had improved water quality in critical area.  There appeared to 
be a lack, however, of holistic assessment systems for the 
existing or planned mainstream dams. Tian explained that China 
was taking greater account of environmental impact assessments 
and scientific data in making decisions on whether to build 
hydropower dams.  Tian described the extensive scientific 
studies of water management, but also noted the many data gaps. 
Tian said there was a keen appetite among Yunnan scientists and 
water managers for scientific exchange among the U.S., Yunnan 
and the lower Mekong countries.  Many of the challenges were the 
same: the adverse effects of channelizing and damming the river, 
managing forests in private hands, and water pollution. 
 
 
 
OBSTACLES TO REGIONAL SCIENCE DATA SHARING 
 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Participants identified challenges to establishing 
DRAGON as a central data clearinghouse for researchers working 
on Mekong issues.  Since the first DRAGON conference nearly a 
year ago (Ref B), local scientists have largely failed to 
contribute data to USGS.  In Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam, 
government control of the universities made permission to share 
data problematic.  For Thailand, government restrictions are not 
the problem, but scientists face some of the same incentives 
that U.S. scientists have in not wanting to give up data without 
compensation.  Yet it was evident that scientists wanted to 
share data and benefit from USGS data integration. (COMMENT: One 
solution might be to use the University Wetlands Network of 17 
lower Mekong universities as a springboard for data integration 
 
HO CHI MIN 00000674  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
with a joint research or funding of its annual wetlands training 
course in return for data release to USGS.  USGS has supported 
the wetlands network in the past, and an ESTH small grant 
supported the course last year.  End Comment.)  Another solution 
would be to use ESTH officers to explain to host governments the 
Forecast Mekong program and seek facilitation in release of 
university data.  USGS will dub its visualization DVD into the 
four lower Mekong languages to facilitate government interest in 
Forecast Mekong. 
 
 
 
NEXT STEPS AND RECOMMENDATIONS BEYOND DRAGON 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) The Can Tho workshop provided a good foundation for 
future Forecast Mekong activities and laid the groundwork for 
strengthened relationships with Mekong region scientists and 
organizations.  Participants will now develop detailed proposals 
for USGS collaboration in the next weeks.  With help from 
embassy ESTH officers, USGS will coordinate with others who have 
or plan data integration programs to find synergies and avoid 
duplication, including the Asian Development Bank's Greater 
Mekong Subregion program, World Bank, Worldfish and the 
government aid organizations of Finland, Australia and Germany. 
Some, such as NGO Worldfish, have a mandate to share data; 
others may have a more proprietary approach.  Forecast Mekong 
will endeavor to coordinate with the Mekong River Commission for 
both data sharing and to feed into MRC assessment efforts. 
Forecast Mekong should be able to add value to the MRC's 
strategic hydropower assessment, knowledge sharing platform and 
integrated basin management programs. Interaction with USAID's 
Famine and Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET), in which 
USGS has participated, would be useful to build on FEWSNET's 
work on water management and its impact on agricultural 
productivity. 
 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) The workshop brought out keen interest in exchanges 
between U.S. and Mekong scientists. Posts could contribute to 
Forecast Mekong through State Department programs such as 
international visitor and speaker and embassy science fellows. 
USGS will explore seconding a scientist to the MRC or the DRAGON 
institute.  Seconding of a U.S. Fish and Wildlife service 
scientist would be helpful as well for fish migration studies. 
Study visits to the U.S. would be particularly helpful in the 
following areas: the Mississippi delta to visit river 
infrastructure and rice agriculture; U.S. Army Corps of Engineer 
projects in new fish passage technology on the Snake River; 
sediment monitoring projects; and upstream infrastructure sites 
such as the Missouri river. 
 
 
 
COMMENT 
 
------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) Although USGS realizes that ESF programming does not 
extend to China or Burma, DRAGON is providing a useful mechanism 
to bring Chinese scientists into dialogue with the Lower Mekong 
scientists and managers.  The Mekong River Commission (MRC) is 
making strides in this area also (Ref A).  With Forecast Mekong 
mingling the scientists and the MRC with officials, there is a 
good opportunity to integrate data and science along the entire 
length of the Mekong.  The workshop showed much good science 
underway, but the scientific efforts are isolated from each 
other, making clear the need for USGS expertise in data 
integration and modeling to create decision-making tools.  As 
with many areas of development, there is the danger of 
duplication both within the USG and among other donors.  The 
workshop also showed the need for USGS expertise, and Forecast 
Mekong will use the coming weeks to coordinate with other donors 
 
HO CHI MIN 00000674  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
and to respond to the research gaps and begin data integration. 
End Comment. 
 
 
 
¶11. (U) This cable was coordinated with US Embassy Bangkok and 
US Embassy Hanoi. 
FAIRFAX