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RR RUEHAST RUEHDH RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHPB RUEHPOD RUEHSL RUEHTM
RUEHTRO
DE RUEHHE #0450/01 3380924
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 040924Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY HELSINKI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5302
INFO RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HELSINKI 000450 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EIND ELTN ENRG TRGY KGHG FI
SUBJECT: FINLAND PROPOSES EIGHTY PERCENT EMISSIONS 
REDUCTIONS IN NEW LONG-TERM CLIMATE REPORT 
 
¶1. SUMMARY  On November 20, the Government of Finland (GOF) 
presented its Long-term Climate and Energy Policy Report to 
the diplomatic community.  The report - adopted unanimously 
by Parliament in October 2009 - examines four possible paths 
Finland could take to achieve an 80 percent reduction in 
emissions by 2050. The pathways take into account factors 
such as economic growth, transportation needs, energy 
consumption and use of nuclear power.  The different 
scenarios range from the Eco-Efficiency model in which 
Finland uses 100 percent renewable energy to the Industrial 
Society model which relies heavily on nuclear energy.  The 
GOF hopes the report will generate discussion on how Finland 
should prepare for climate challenges, as well as create the 
policy conditions necessary to encourage clean technology 
investments.   The GOF plans to formally present the report 
during the COP-15 negotiations in mid-December.  While the 
report contains lofty goals regarding Finland's efforts to 
address climate change, GOF officials stressed that the 80 
percent reduction could only by realized as part of a wider 
international effort in which other countries take on similar 
targets.  END SUMMARY. 
 
FINLAND'S LATEST CLIMATE REPORT LOOKS TO 2050 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  On November 20, Minister of Environment Paula Lehtomaki 
and the Prime Minister's Climate Advisor Oras Tynkkynen 
presented an overview of the GOF's Long-term Climate and 
Energy Policy Report ("Foresight Report") to the diplomatic 
community.  The Foresight Report is an addendum to Finland's 
National Climate Strategy presented to Parliament in November 
¶2008.  Whereas the National Climate Strategy provides 
specific goals Finland must undertake by 2020 to meet the 
EU-mandated climate targets, the Foresight Report contains no 
binding obligations or concrete actions.  According to 
Tynkkynen, the purpose of the Foresight Report is to prepare 
for long-term climate challenges; create the policy 
conditions necessary to encourage clean technology 
investments; and position Finland as a forerunner in tackling 
climate change issues. 
 
 
MODELS COMPARE ENERGY CONSUMPTION, PRODUCTION OPTIONS 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶3. The Report details four pathways Finland could take to 
reach its 80 percent reduction goal.  Each path takes into 
account factors such as economic growth, transportation 
needs, use of renewable energies, energy consumption and 
nuclear use.  In the Eco-Efficiency model, emission 
reductions will be achieved by restructuring Finland's 
economy to focus on service-based, internet-connected 
industries.  Communities would cluster around these 'clean' 
industries, reducing commuting needs.  The focus on a service 
economy would also reduce the need for goods transportation. 
In this scenario, Finland would cut its energy consumption by 
half and use 100 percent renewable energy.  Economic growth 
would slow at first due to initial investments in clean 
technology, but would then increase, averaging 1.7 percent by 
¶2050. 
 
¶4. At the other end of the spectrum is the Industrial Society 
model.  In this scenario, Finland would not drastically alter 
its economic make-up which currently relies both on 
service-based, but also some traditional industries (such as 
paper making).  In this model, Finland would achieve its 
emission goals by markedly increasing its use of nuclear 
power to two-fifths of its total energy profile (it is 
currently less than one-fifth, or 18 percent). (Note: The GOF 
is debating plans for future nuclear reactor construction, 
although the current Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen recently 
expressed doubt at an IAEA World Energy Outlook seminar that 
Finland would approve all three of its pending reactor 
applications.) Renewable energy would account for 
three-fifths of Finland's energy supply, and energy 
consumption would remain steady.  The average economic growth 
forecasted for this model is 1.8 percent. 
 
¶5. In the middle of the spectrum lie the Local Services and 
Self-Sufficiency models.  The Local Services model focuses 
Finland's economy even more strongly on a service-based 
industry.  Only two-thirds of Finland's energy would come 
from renewable sources with the remaining one-third supplied 
by nuclear power.  Energy consumption would decrease by 25 
percent and the average economic growth would be 1.8 percent. 
 In the Self-Sufficiency model, Finland would only lightly 
reorient its economy towards more service-based industries. 
The country would focus instead on increasing its share of 
local renewable energy to four-fifths of total energy supply 
with the remaining one-fifth supplied by nuclear power.  In 
this model, energy consumption would drop by 33 percent, 
transportation needs would remain steady, with an average 
 
HELSINKI 00000450  002 OF 002 
 
 
economic growth of 1.2 percent. 
 
FINNISH PUBLIC PREFERS SELF-SUFFICIENCY MODEL 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. Tynkkynen stressed that the four scenarios were for 
illustrative purposes only.  The GOF does not intend to adopt 
any single pathway as future policy.  Instead, the GOF hopes 
the report will encourage dialogue and eventually action 
among stakeholders.  The GOF has already held a number of 
community Future Forums which presented the report to local 
communities.  Many of these communities were consulted during 
the report's initial compilation, and provided feedback via 
1300 internet responses.  According to the report, most Finns 
view the Eco-Efficiency model as the ideal model, but 
unrealistic.  The Self-Sufficiency model is the favorite 
pathway, although some still doubt its applicability. 
 
DESPITE COSTS, FINLAND SEES OPPORTUNITIES 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. One challenge not discussed in the report was the cost in 
moving to a low-emissions society.  Tynkkynen acknowledged 
that it was difficult to estimate costs, but that doing 
nothing about Finland's emissions would be far more 
expensive.  He added that the report should be viewed as an 
opportunity. Tougher emission targets would support clean 
technology companies, leading to new jobs and export 
possibilities.  Finland could essentially become a laboratory 
for low-emission living via innovative clean technology. 
 
¶8. Despite the report's lofty goals, Finland's approach to 
climate change remains quite pragmatic.  Both Lehtomaki and 
Tynkkynen stressed that any shift to a low-carbon society 
would not happen at the expense of Finland's well-being and 
competitiveness.  They added that Finland's 80 percent 
emission reduction would only be realized as part of a wider 
international effort in which other countries take on similar 
targets. 
 
¶9. COMMENT The GOF plans to formally present their Long-term 
Climate and Energy Report during the COP-15 negotiations in 
mid-December. If there is no agreement in Copenhagen (or 
shortly thereafter), Finland will not set aside its 2050 
goals altogether.  Although the Parliamentary debate on the 
Foresight Report revealed differences of opinion, it also 
demonstrated a strong consensus across party lines that 
Finland must do something to reduce its heavy carbon 
footprint. END COMMENT. 
ORECK