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PP RUEHAG RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHUB #0763/01 3552032
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 212032Z DEC 09
FM USINT HAVANA
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INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS PRIORITY
RUEHHI/AMEMBASSY HANOI PRIORITY 0006
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCOGCA/COMNAVBASE GUANTANAMO BAY CU PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUCOWCV/CCGDSEVEN MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HAVANA 000763 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CCA AND WHA/PD 
STATE FOR DRL CNEWLING 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2019 
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV ECON EAID CU
SUBJECT: CUBA PASSES UP YET ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY TO UNVEIL
 
REFORMS 
 
REF: A. HAVANA 623 (CHANGES NO SUBSTITUTE FOR SHAKEUPS) 
     ¶B. HAVANA 477 ("RAUL CASTRO DELAYS PARTY CONGRESS") 
     ¶C. HAVANA 631 ("THE GOC TELLS CUBANS TO FEND FOR 
        THEMSELVES") 
     ¶D. HAVANA 666 ("PRIVATE FARMERS' MARKETS PUT ON 
        ALERT") 
     ¶E. HAVANA 494 ("THE EXIT PERMIT") 
     ¶F. HAVANA 736 ("HUMAN RIGHTS DAY TURNS VIOLENT") 
     ¶G. HAVANA 739 ("GOC PROTEST HUMAN RIGHTS DAY EVENTS") 
 
HAVANA 00000763  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: Principal Office Jonathan Farrar for reasons 1.4 (b) and 
 (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Even with expectations already below sea 
level, the National Assembly session that wrapped up on 
December 20 was a considerable disappointment.  In the 
absence of a Communist Party Congress, or even a Conference, 
some had hoped that the GOC would take advantage of the 
legislative session to unfurl, or at least shed light on, the 
political and economic reforms that have been expected since 
Raul Castro became President in 2008.  Instead, Castro lashed 
out against the United States, politicized the arrest of an 
Amcit and belittled civil society - all, he said, in response 
to the Secretary's recent comments on Cuba.  The National 
Assembly also elected as vice-presidents a stern colleague 
from Castro's rebel days and its top anti-corruption 
official, and brought into the Cabinet a woman who led 
violent mobs against Human Rights Day demonstrators two weeks 
ago.  End Summary. 
 
NO INDICATION OF WHERE THE GOC IS TAKING THE COUNTRY 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶2. (C) By now most prognosticators of reform have lowered 
their expectations.  The inability of the all-powerful 
Communist Party (CP) to convene its first Congress since 
1997, or even a modest party conference, has dampened hopes 
that President Raul Castro would match his talk of reforms 
with action.  (Refs A, B)  The December 20 National Assembly 
Session, and the days of committee work that preceded it, 
were a potential venue to announce reforms.  It represented 
the largest gathering of government (GOC) notables since the 
previous, and equally uneventful, Session on August 1, 2009, 
and the last Session until the April 2010 Congress of the 
Youth Communist League. 
 
CHANGE IS NEEDED, BUT MAANA 
---------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) The lack of clear direction continues to grind the 
country's management to a halt, and its economic system is 
irremediably broken.  On December 20, President Castro 
himself acknowledged that a new model is necessary.  He 
devoted three quarters of his speech to the "economic 
challenges" that are testing the "capacity of the country to 
withstand" the situation.  And yet, once again he punted. 
Although Castro acknowledged that it was high time for these 
major reforms, these would have to wait for more 
deliberations.  "They can't be rushed or improvised," he 
stated.  "Simply stated, we have no room for mistakes." 
 
ITEMS KEEP ACCUMULATING ON CUBA'S WISH LIST 
-------------------------------------------

¶4. (C) By now, the list of options that are privately and 
not-so-privately under discussion is getting long.  Allowing 
real estate ownership or land-use rights to foreigners was 
one that many contacts cited as the most likely to come out 
of the December Session.  Other potential reforms include 
changes to the ration system (Ref C), easing restrictions on 
private sector activity (Ref D), private property ownership 
(Septel), exit permits (Ref E), improving the investment 
climate and rules, allowing mass internet access, and 
eliminating the reviled dual currency system (Septel).  The 
last one became so loud that the National Assembly committees 
had to go public to quash rumors that the ALBA's Sucre would 
be adopted as currency in Cuba. 
 
NO PLANS ENVISIONED UNTIL AFTER APRIL 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Conventional wisdom in Cuba has it that the GOC will 
hold out on announcing more changes until it can convene a CP 
Congress or, more likely, a Conference sometime after the 
Communist Youth League Congress on April 3-4.  Some long-time 
observers think that there is little sense in the PC holding 
a Congress as long as the old guard (which includes and is 
led by the Castro brothers) remains active in politics. 
Therefore, reforms are more likely to be rolled out quietly 
throughout 2010, they say.  However, Raul Castro's address to 
the National Assembly, which included a return to five-year 
plans starting in 2010, seems to hint once again that changes 
will be announced in the near future.  The bottom line is 
that reforms continue to be discussed in the future rather 
than present tense. 
 
ESCALATING THE ANTI-US RHETORIC INSTEAD 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Reforms weren't in the cards at the National Assembly 
Session, but U.S.-bashing was, and as stridently as it has 
been since President Obama took office.  Castro linked the 
arrest of an Amcit (Septel) to our human rights programs (the 
first time the GOC publicly acknowledged the arrest), and 
criticized U.S. observance of Human Rights Day marches (Ref 
F, G).  He belittled Cuba's "civil society" (interestingly, 
using that term) as enemies of the country.  "Consider this 
my response" to the Secretary's recent comments on Cuba, on 
December 14, he declared.  That said, Castro then claimed 
continued interested in improving relations with the United 
States. 
 
OLD GUARD PROMOTED TO VICE PRESIDENCIES 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) The most prominent promotion to Vice President is 
Castro rebel colleague Ramiro Valdes, currently Cuba's 
Computers and Informatics Minister and a member of the 
Politburo.  Valdes, 77, acquired notoriety as Interior 
Minister in the late 60s and 80s.  Once thought to have 
fallen out with the Castros, he has been on a steady comeback 
this year, brought back into a public government role and 
featuring prominently as the GOC point man for frugality and 
self-reliance (Ref C).  Joining the gruff rebel commander as 
Vice President is Cuba's Controller and anti-corruption 
crusader, Gladys Bejerano.  The 62 year-old, with a 
reputation for humorlessness to rival Valdes', becomes Cuba's 
highest-ranked woman.  Relatively unknown, Bejerano was 
promoted to the newly created position of Comptroller last 
August.  Bejerano and Valdes replace former Vice Presidents 
Carlos Lage, who was spectacularly fired in March 2009, and 
former rebel commander Juan Almeida, who died in October. 
Cuba has five Vice Presidents. 
 
REWARDS FOR ECONOMIC FAILURE AND LEADING MOBS 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Also promoted to the Council of Ministers, a governing 
body akin to a Cabinet, was Economy and Planning Minister 
Marino Murillo Jorge.  The 48 year-old technocrat has been 
doing his best impersonation of an economic czar, but has 
little to show for his efforts (Septel).  Another new 
Councilmember is Youth Communist League First Secretary 
Liudmila Alamo Duenas.  According to press and eyewitness 
reports, Alamo Duenas led her young communists in a fiery 
counter-demonstration against Human Rights Day marchers on 
December 10.  Alamo Duenas was given the task of harassing 
and following the Ladies in White (Damas de Blanco), a group 
of spouses and relatives of prisoners of conscience, all the 
way to the residence of founder Laura Pollan.  In order to 
enter the house, the Ladies were forced to run a gauntlet of 
counterdemonstrators who rained blows on them.  Both Murillo 
and Alamo are substantially younger than their holdover 
Cabinet colleagues.
 
NO ROOM FOR MISTAKES, NO TIME TO WASTE 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (C) The lack of clarity about which reforms are under 
consideration, how far they may go or when and how they may 
be enacted is paralyzing government management at every 
level, especially among the already risk-averse officials 
that run virtually all economic activity on the island.  The 
quagmire is not helped by the few piecemeal plans that are 
floated only to be shelved without explanation.  The GOC's 
timidity is perplexing, especially when there are successful 
economic models like Vietnam that are equally disinclined to 
surrender one-party control and political freedoms.  The 
longer that the GOC delays reforms that everybody knows it 
must make, the less likely it will be for those reforms to 
effectively pull Cuba out of its predicament.

FARRAR