VZCZCXYZ1094
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHGT #1450/01 3511543
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 171541Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY GUATEMALA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0608
INFO WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS GUATEMALA 001450 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV KGHG GT
SUBJECT: GUATEMALA ANTICIPATES CLIMATE CHANGE, BUT WILL SUPPORT G-77 
in COPENHAGEN 
 
REF: A) 2009 GUATEMALA 782; B) 2009 GUATEMALA 1352 
C) 2009 SAN JOSE 1056 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: On November 12, a panel of diplomats, scholars and 
civil society representatives discussed the issue of climate change 
at an event hosted by the Latin American School of Social Sciences 
(FLACSO).  All panelists viewed climate change as an imminent but 
reversible threat and lamented the already evident effects that 
global warming has had on Guatemala.  Speakers supported the idea 
that countries that historic polluters (developed countries 
including the US and Europe, but not large-scale developing 
polluters) should bear the cost of reversing or slowing climate 
change, a point of contention within multilateral institutions. 
Panelists also acknowledged the importance of the upcoming 
Copenhagen Conference on Climate Change (COP-15), however, in 
recent weeks, the GoG has made clear that they will support the 
G-77 position, rather than that of the USG.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
A SCIENTIFIC PROBLEM WITH SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES FOR GUATEMALA 
 
¶2. (U) Panelists emphasized the fact that while climate change is 
typically seen as a scientific issue, as time passes, the impacts 
will be largely social.  Several participants warned that climate 
change is already affecting Guatemala, supporting this claim with 
examples of the recent food crisis (Ref A) and the algae bloom at 
Lake Atitlan (Ref B).  Both events, amongst others, have negatively 
impacted the social well-being of many Guatemalans.  Carlos 
Mansilla, the Director of the Climate Change Unit at the Ministry 
of Environment and Natural Resources (MARN) described the irony of 
the situation in which most polluters are wealthy consumers from 
developed countries, and the victims of climate change will be the 
rural, poor, indigenous, women, and children. 
 
 
 
COST SHARING AND CARBON EMISSIONS 
 
¶3. (U) Rita Mishaan, the Director for Human Rights for Indigenous 
Communities at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, posited that the 
world's historic polluters should take responsibility for their 
actions and fund initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 
She stated that "personal responsibility" by developed nations was 
necessary to address climate change and she outlined a mostly 
anti-US position indicating that, "consumerism and western ideals 
have done away with the idea of responsibility."  While other 
panelists shared the notion that polluters should pay, Mansilla 
indicated the need for "differentiated responsibilities" within the 
international climate change fight.  Dr. Ivan Azurdia from the 
National Climate Change Board, said that for Guatemala this means 
that the GoG adopt a functional energy policy and reduce government 
subsidies for coal-fired power plants. 
 
 
 
LAST CHANCE IN COPENHAGEN? 
 
¶4. (U) The panelists all viewed the Copenhagen Conference on 
Climate Change (COP-15) as a key juncture in the world's efforts to 
combat climate change and its effects.  The British Ambassador, 
Julie Chappell stated that the European Union will speak with one 
voice at COP-15  on issues such as emissions targets and the 
establishment of a global fund for developing countries to fight 
climate change and mitigate its effects.  Other panelists agreed 
with Mishaan stating that there is a "lot riding on Copenhagen," 
and that it could be the world's "last chance" to appropriately 
address the issue.  However the British Ambassador diverged from 
this view and stated that Copenhagen was a "starting point," rather 
than an end. 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU)  In recent weeks, press reports have highlighted the 
potentially dramatic effects that climate change could have on 
Guatemala.  The GoG sent a delegation to COP-15 headed by the Vice 
President, Rafael Espada.  However, the GoG has made public its 
intentions to support the G-77 position, rather than that of the 
USG (Ref C).  The DCM raised the issue with Present Alvaro Colom on 
Thursday, December 3, but the President indicated Guatemala would 
maintain its G-77 influenced stand. 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Comment: It was clear from Carlos Mansilla (who is 
participating as a delegation member in Copenhagen) that MARN holds 
the position that developed countries should set strict emissions 
 
 
targets and establish an unrestricted fund fro developing countries 
to deal with global warming - a position shared by the G-77.  The 
GoG does so knowing this position could scuttle any chance of 
reaching a deal in Copenhagen.  Thus, despite a relatively strong 
relationship with Guatemala on issues of environment and 
development, the USG is unlikely to receive much support from the 
GoG at COP-15.  End Comment. 
MCFARLAND