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R 021721Z DEC 09
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3411
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

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SUBJECT: Senegal: Can President Abdoulaye Wade's new alliance win 
next presidential elections? 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: On November 21, President Abdoulaye Wade announced 
the creation of a new alliance called "SOPI pour demain" (Change for 
Tomorrow).  Four days earlier, he ended a host of rumors by 
declaring at a press conference that he will not call early 
elections nor eliminate a second round runoff.  In a separate 
statement, a senior political advisor to the President underlined 
the stakes when he told a gathering of party leaders, "If Wade does 
not win in 2012, most of us will end up in jail."  End Summary. 
 
Ending rumors 
------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) On November 17, President Wade told journalists at a press 
conference that he had no intention of calling early presidential 
elections, currently scheduled for February 2012.  He said "this was 
a dream of the opposition" arguing that his party is governing 
without difficulty and that the National Assembly is functioning as 
it should.  Commenting about rumors that he wants to eliminate a 
second runoff he said "I have the power to do it, but I do not plan 
to, there are no circumstances that warrant it."  (Comment: While 
calling early elections is not in his interest, given the need to 
rebuild his waning popularity in the wake of his party's defeat in 
the March local elections, Wade may yet be tempted to eliminate the 
runoff.  If one reads his statements carefully he did not completely 
rule the notion out.  Moreover, Wade he knows that it's going to be 
much harder this time around for him to win a runoff, especially 
without the support of popular former Prime Minister and fundraiser 
extraordinaire Macky Sall.  Sall's party is loosely affiliated with 
the Benno coalition of opposition parties and Sall is close to 
former Prime Minister Moustapha Niasse who has made it his life's 
mission to oust Wade.  End Comment.) 
 
Victory or Jail 
--------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  On November 20, Serigne Mbacke Ndiaye, President Wade's 
Political Advisor, dramatically told the senior leadership of the 
Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS) and allied parties, "if Wade is 
not reelected in 2012, most of us will end up in jail."  Beyond the 
stalwarts who have been in the PDS since its inception, the party is 
home to a large number of senior political figures from the 
opposition or allied parties who only joined the PDS to have access 
positions of power.  The competition among these leaders has 
paralyzed the party as the PDS can neither seem to renew itself by 
nurturing leaders at the grassroots levels nor organize a congress 
for fear of unleashing a leadership battle royal.  Meanwhile, 
leaders who feel marginalized often order their followers to vote 
against the PDS. 
 
A Weak Alliance 
--------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) According to a Mouride Deputy at the National Assembly, 
"Wade wishes to solidify his ranks; that is why he created the 
Alliance SOPI for Tomorrow."  The Alliance brings together dozens of 
minuscule political parties; in his view, the President's goal, 
beyond being able to claim he has a large alliance supporting his 
reelection, is to end divisions in his party.  A young PDS leader at 
the Assembly told Embassy that the Alliance is a new approach to end 
the competition between rival factions who are vying for the 
President's attention at the expense of the vitality of the party. 
Both PDS leaders note that Wade is showing a more magnanimous 
leadership style by inviting these figures to air their views.  They 
added that the Alliance will elect a unified Directorate that will 
have the goal of maintaining "serenity" in the PDS.  Reflecting on 
the complex leadership situation within PDS, the Mouride Deputy 
noted "we have to get Wade reelected and then we'll see where we go 
from there." 
 
¶5.  (SBU) COMMENT: With the creation of the SOPI Alliance, President 
Wade has launched his electoral campaign, a fact reflected by a 
recently approved three-year investment plan which foresees the 
construction of high-cost high visibility projects such as roads, 
bridges, and national and regional airports.  Programs such as the 
unionizations of farmers and the creation of a Green Bank to fund 
farming projects are also part of his offensive to win votes in 
rural areas.  Wade won in 2000 with the SOPI slogan and hopes to win 
again in 2012 with almost the same slogan, SOPI for Tomorrow. 
However, considering the unpopularity of his government, he will 
have to go way beyond fancy rhetoric and placating his party's 
leadership to win back the hearts and minds of a disillusioned 
electorate.  End Comment. 
Bernicat