VZCZCXRO6769
PP RUEHIK
DE RUEHPS #0495/01 3170547
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 130547Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY PRISTINA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9439
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 1261
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1792
RHFMIUU/AFSOUTH NAPLES IT
RHMFISS/CDR TF FALCON
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEPGEA/CDR650THMIGP SHAPE BE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUZEJAA/USNIC PRISTINA SR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRISTINA 000495 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE, EUR/PGI, INL, DRL, PRM, USAID 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KV
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: PDK'S CHALLENGE -- DEFENDING GAINS FROM '07 
 
REF:  A) PRISTINA 477 
      B) PRISTINA 492 
 
PRISTINA 00000495  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  The Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), Kosovo's 
ruling party since 2007, is heading into the November 15 local 
elections facing tough competition in municipal races from both the 
opposition Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) and from its 
national coalition partner the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK). 
PDK retains the impressive cohesion and organizational strength that 
propelled it to victory in 16 mayoral races in 2007 -- the PDK had 
previously controlled just six.  However, Prime Minister Hashim 
Thaci's party is at risk of losing several municipalities in the 
face of surging competition from its opponents and popular 
disenchantment with its rule.  The party's growing reputation for 
corruption and unease over its attempts to centralize political 
power in its hands may prompt voters to send a message to PDK this 
Sunday, their last chance to do so before national elections to be 
held no later than 2011.  END SUMMARY 
 
BLAST FROM THE PAST:  PDK's 2007 "LANDSLIDE" 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The 2007 general and municipal elections were a landslide 
for the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) that saw it return to power 
at the central level and take control of over half of Kosovo's then 
30 existing municipalities.  However, PDK's victory in 2007 was not 
the result of a popular movement of voters toward the party, but 
rather its ability to maintain its base of support in spite of 
historically low voter turnout that contributed to a collapse of 
support for the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK). (Note:  The LDK 
was suffering from a leadership struggle and a splintering of the 
party.  End Note) This year both LDK and Ramush Haradinaj's 
opposition AAK are climbing in opinion polls as they run 
professional campaigns that are appealing to Kosovo's voters.  PDK 
has a fight on its hands. 
 
¶3. (SBU) In this fight, PDK has several clear strengths and 
weaknesses.  Chief among its weaknesses is a reputation for 
corruption and crime.  No fewer than three of PDK's mayoral 
candidates have prior criminal convictions and/or face felony 
charges (Sami Lushtaku, Skenderaj/Srbica:  convicted for threatening 
a judge; Xhabir Zharku, Podujeve/Podujevo:  two arrests for 
kidnapping, obstruction of justice; and, Shukri Buja, 
Lipjan/Lipljan:  vehicular homicide).   That said, PDK enjoys the 
natural advantages of incumbency -- patronage and power.  Another 
PDK asset is Prime Minister Thaci, a tireless campaigner who has 
promised voters an impressive, if not always plausible, array of 
public sector projects and new investment as he barnstorms across 
Kosovo in support of PDK candidates. 
 
PRISTINA:  THE UNATTAINABLE PRIZE 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) PDK is waging a street fight to win the mayor's office in 
Pristina, Kosovo's largest municipality, with over 20 per cent of 
its population.  PDK mayoral candidate Astrit Salihu, a philosophy 
professor, civil society activist, and former advisor to Thaci, 
trails incumbent LDK Mayor Isa Mustafa by twenty points or more in 
most surveys.  Although the race is Mustafa's to lose, Salihu has 
attacked him at every opportunity with a series of negative campaign 
advertisements (a first for Kosovo politics) criticizing his 
administration for failing to rein in booming illegal construction, 
reduce growing traffic congestion or invest more in the city's 
dilapidated infrastructure.  As a result, Salihu is likely to be 
able to force a runoff December 13. (Note:  Mayoral candidates must 
win at least 50 percent plus 1 of the vote on November 15 in order 
to win outright.  Otherwise, the two leading vote getters square off 
in a run-off election.  End Note) Mustafa will almost certainly 
remain Pristina's mayor, but PDK would consider it a victory of 
sorts for the party if Salihu can keep the race close and force a 
run-off. 
 
 
PRISTINA 00000495  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
MITROVICA: THE GOOD . . . 
------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Unlike Pristina, PDK's candidate for mayor of Mitrovica, 
Avni Kastrati, has a strong chance to win and to succeed the 
incumbent PDK Mayor Bahram Rexhepi.  We recently met Kastrati, a 
local businessman with over twenty years experience as a distributor 
for foreign oil products companies.  Kastrati's platform for 
Mitrovica, an ethnically divided city that straddles the divide 
between the Kosovo Serb-majority north and the rest of the country, 
emphasized the importance of resolving the volatile ethnic divide in 
the city and building the local economy.  Security and freedom of 
movement are at the forefront of Kastrati's platform, which includes 
cooperation with the international community to resolve Mitrovica's 
ethnic troubles.  Kastrati, an engaged politician who displays a 
competent command of local politics, also discussed in detail his 
proposals for economic development to create jobs and improve 
infrastructure.  Mitrovica looks to be a two-man race between 
Kastrati and LDK candidate Mursel Ibrahimi, who enjoys some local 
strength from a well-developed local party structure.  However, in 
2007 PDK outpolled LDK by a margin of 36 per cent to 21 per cent, 
and PDK's generally able administration of the city gives Kastrati a 
commanding position. 
 
PRIZREN: THE BAD . . . 
---------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) PDK's chances to hold Prizren, the key to Kosovo's south, 
are much more tenuous.  In October, Prime Minister Thaci made the 
extraordinary promise to invest 170 million Euros in Prizren and has 
made numerous campaign visits to the city.  PDK wants to keep this 
important municipality -- with Kosovo's fourth-largest city and its 
main cultural attraction -- and it faces a major challenge from the 
LDK.  In a recent meeting the incumbent PDK mayor, Ramadan Muja, was 
more impressive as a tour guide than a big city mayor; he spent most 
of his time regaling us with stories about Prizren's 2,500 year 
history and the travails of its Albanian population in the 
ethnically-mixed city.  He offered only a spotty review of his 
campaign platform and evaded most questions about local politics or 
his accomplishments.  According to his LDK challenger, Hanefi 
Mujarremi, this is because Muja's accomplishments are few. 
Mujarremi, a former director of municipal services and long-time LDK 
party leader in Prizren, told us that the city's investment from the 
central government -- approximately ten million Euros for new roads 
-- has all been approved in the last few weeks and comes with 
speculation that Thaci will cancel the projects if his party loses 
the election in Prizren.  We expect this race to be one of the 
country's closest.  In 2007, PDK edged LDK by a hair in the first 
round, 28 per cent to 25 per cent. 
 
GJILAN/GNJILANE:  AND THE UGLY 
------------------------------ 
 
¶7. (SBU) In the 2007 municipal elections in Gjilan/Gnjilane, PDK 
incumbent Mayor Qemajl Mustafa trounced his LDK opponent by 14 
percentage points in first round voting before finishing her off by 
a two-to-one margin in the runoff.  Mustafa may find it difficult to 
repeat this performance against a reenergized LDK (ref B).  Mustafa, 
an outsider in Gjilan, has a politician's easy manner, but his 
electoral prospects took a hit on October 28 when members of the 
Prime Minister's security detail, in town for a PDK campaign rally 
Thaci was attending, beat two young LDK activists who were hanging 
posters for LDK municipal candidate Fatmir Rexhepi.  The beating 
took place in full public view and resulted in the youths, not the 
detail, being detained by police.  The incident has energized LDK 
supporters, damaged Mustafa and reinforced an image for thuggishness 
that bedevils PDK nationwide.  Mustafa is also defending himself 
from accusations that he and local PDK officials have enriched 
themselves through corrupt infrastructure projects.  The 
Gjilan/Gnjilane race is a wide open contest that could cost PDK 
control of one of the country's important municipalities. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
PRISTINA 00000495  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) Serious challenges in individual municipal races should not 
obscure the impressive assets that PDK enjoys as it enters Sunday's 
election.  The party is united, disciplined, and energized.  It 
possesses impressive organizational strength as demonstrated by 
enthusiastic, well-attended campaign rallies and a sophisticated 
media strategy evident in campaign ads that blanket the airwaves and 
city streets across Kosovo.  As the incumbent party in both the 
central government and in sixteen municipalities, PDK has control 
over coveted government jobs and valuable government resources, 
campaign assets that it lacked in previous elections.  Victory in 
2007 gave PDK enhanced tools to cling to power, but this year's 
election now exposes it to voters who can pass judgment on the party 
for its failings as well as its accomplishments.  Surveys and 
anecdotal evidence both betray widespread antipathy among Kosovo 
voters for growing corruption under PDK -- notably in much-touted 
infrastructure projects such as new roads -- as well as an unease 
among some who charge PDK with undermining Kosovo's fledgling 
democracy by stacking government institutions with party loyalists 
to the exclusion of other voices.  Many Kosovo citizens also fault 
PDK for a reputation for coarse criminality and brutish behavior; 
the Gjilan/Gnjilane incident involving the Prime Minister's 
bodyguards is an untimely reminder for a PDK trying to overcome this 
loutish image.  Tight, competitive races in Gjilan/Gnjilane, 
Prizren, and other PDK-controlled municipalities could see an 
erosion of support for the party even as it maintains a plurality of 
mayoralties. 
DELL