VZCZCXRO6228
PP RUEHIK
DE RUEHPS #0477/01 3061352
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 021352Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY PRISTINA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9382
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 1238
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1765
RHFMIUU/AFSOUTH NAPLES IT
RHMFISS/CDR TF FALCON
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEPGEA/CDR650THMIGP SHAPE BE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUZEJAA/USNIC PRISTINA SR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRISTINA 000477 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE, EUR/PGI, INL, DRL, PRM, USAID 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KV
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: AAK'S NEW BLOOD ELECTION STRATEGY 
 
PRISTINA 00000477  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Kosovo's leading opposition party, the Alliance 
for the Future of Kosovo (AAK), is attempting to refashion itself 
from a regional party dogged by its own corruption-plagued past into 
a national party that can convince voters to give it a second chance 
at governing.  As part of this strategy, AAK has recruited new 
leadership and a new type of candidate for the municipal election 
scheduled for November 15.  While many of these new leaders carry 
the traditional KLA pedigree, they have often distinguished 
themselves since the conflicts of the 1990s in other leadership 
capacities as well.  Some of the new blood that AAK has recruited 
will carry the party banner in critical races in municipalities like 
Suhareka/ Suva Reka and Vushtrri/Vucitrn, bellwether races for the 
success of AAK's strategy, which many deem risky, but necessary, in 
order to position the party for future success in general elections. 
 END SUMMARY 
 
OVERCOMING THE PAST 
------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Although AAK led the GOK from 2004 to 2007, the party did 
not win control of its first municipalities until 2007 when it 
claimed the western municipalities of Decan, Peja and Gjakova, where 
party leader Ramush Haradinaj's strong clan ties make him a local 
power broker.  These victories were the only bright spot for the 
party which otherwise took an electoral drubbing from voters who 
were turned off by AAK's corruption and lack of accomplishment 
during its tenure in government.  In the five post-1999 elections in 
Kosovo, AAK has never garnered more than 62,000 votes, reaching this 
high point in the 2002 municipal elections when it received 8.7% of 
total votes cast.  In the 2004 (general) and 2007 (municipal and 
general) elections, AAK's vote tally decreased to 58,000 and 54,000 
total votes respectively. (Note: Though AAK's support has declined 
in absolute terms over the years, its share of the votes cast in 
2007 was 9.6%, up from 2002, mainly because a large number of 
disillusioned LDK voters chose not to vote in 2007, thereby 
depressing turnout. End Note) In order to reverse its declining 
political fortunes, AAK has embarked over the past year on an 
ambitious campaign to remake itself and appeal to a larger swath of 
Kosovo's electorate. 
 
REMAKING THE LEADERSHIP 
----------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Haradinaj -- who in 2004 left the government and AAK in the 
hands of lackluster and rapacious underlings while he was tried for 
war crimes in The Hague -- arguably had no choice but to 
dramatically change AAK from the top down to make it competitive. 
Naming Blerim Shala, one of Kosovo's leading public intellectuals 
and a former newspaper editor, as the party's First Vice President 
and de facto number two was part of the party's makeover.  Shala has 
become the party's chief ideologue and emerged as its second face 
after Haradinaj.  This is apparent from AAK's campaign posters, 
which feature Haradinaj and Shala standing side by side.  The 
posters are not just a nod to Shala's high public standing, but a 
noticeable anomaly given that party leaders traditionally only share 
campaign posters with municipal candidates in individual races.  The 
AAK's new General Secretary and election campaign manager, Burim 
Ramadani, a long-time associate of Shala's, joined the party less 
than a year ago.  Of the 32 municipalities that AAK is contesting, 
18 of its candidates are, like Shala and Ramadani, recent converts 
to the party. 
 
NEW FACES, LOCAL RACES 
---------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) As part of its strategy to "break out of the west," the AAK 
has targeted several municipalities, including Suhareka/Suva Reka, a 
Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) stronghold located in central 
Kosovo.  The AAK's mayoral candidate, Blerim Kuci, is a former KLA 
commander in Suhareka/Suva Reka and previously served as Minister of 
Internal Affairs.  He was also a senior Democratic League of Kosovo 
(LDK) official until he resigned as party CEO last year in a 
 
PRISTINA 00000477  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
leadership dispute.  Kuci, a veteran political organizer with a 
seasoned politician's grasp of local issues, told us that his 
candidacy was a test of AAK's new electoral strategy.  AAK claims 
that it has a large party structure in Suhareka/Suva Reka, and 
Kuci's campaign headquarters is staffed to capacity with young 
volunteers, not the more grizzled veterans who usually haunt party 
branch offices in Kosovo. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Kuci's name recognition and dynamic election team pose a 
challenge for the LDK, and an LDK campaign official told us recently 
that his party expects Kuci to poll ahead of the LDK incumbent mayor 
on election day and force a two-man run-off in December in a contest 
that LDK expects to win in the end.  Prime Minister Thaci's 
Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) is also pouring significant amounts 
of resources into the Suhareka/Suva Reka contest.  Thaci has made a 
dozen campaign trips on behalf of his party's candidate, Rame Vata, 
and promised voters there a plethora of infrastructure projects if 
PDK wins in the municipality.  Though PDK would like to win, it also 
wants keep AAK from spreading beyond its western Kosovo base and 
staking a claim as a national party. 
 
GUNS AND RESUMES 
---------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The prerequisites for a career in Kosovo politics have been 
carrying a gun in the 1990's for the KLA or enduring significant 
prison time at the hands of Belgrade.  AAK is trying a twist on this 
tactic.  Though many of its new faces are war veterans, they have 
also distinguished themselves professionally over the last decade. 
Collectively they hope these new faces with longer resumes will help 
the party project a much-needed air of competence and dynamism. 
Enver Rrustemi and Tahir Caka, new arrivals to AAK and prominent KLA 
veterans, are running as AAK mayoral candidates in Viti/Vitina and 
Kacanik, respectively.  Both can claim high-level administrative 
experience, Rrustemi as former chief of the Kosovo Police 
Inspectorate and Caka as the former PDK mayor of Kacanik.  Another 
new face, Muharrem Shabani is a former Kosovo Assembly member under 
the Yugoslav regime who earned his nationalist credentials in 1990 
when he voted in favor of the Kosovo Constitutional Declaration.  He 
is also an LDK turncoat.  Shabani is running for mayor of 
Vushtrri/Vucitrn, a position he once held, and he offers AAK a 
credible, if difficult, shot at wresting the mayor's chair there 
from PDK. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Bislim Zyrapi, AAK's candidate in PDK-ruled Prizren, is a 
well-regarded KLA veteran and former head of the GOK's emergency 
services department.  In a recent meeting Zyrapi told us that he 
only joined AAK five months ago.  He said he was attracted to AAK by 
its "thorough changes," saying that the party had become more 
professional and intellectual and had opened itself up to new blood 
untouched by previous corruption.   Zyrapi, who has never held 
elective office before, has a solid command of local issues and 
described to us a detailed campaign platform that addresses local 
challenges to attract foreign investment, create jobs and develop 
tourism while protecting Prizren's cultural patrimony.  Zyrapi's 
candidacy is another conspicuous example of AAK's efforts to reach 
outside of its own poorly performing ranks and its western base to 
reinvigorate itself nationally with new and credible local leaders. 
 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Haradinaj calculates that by giving prominent positions in 
AAK to new and experienced faces from outside the party, he can 
offer a compelling choice to Kosovo voters who have soured on the 
unattractive choice between the PDK, with its growing reputation for 
graft and centralization of power, or an LDK that is widely 
perceived as rudderless and moribund since the death of Ibrahim 
Rugova.  Haradinaj is no poster boy for public integrity and AAK's 
electoral strategy is a gamble for both the party and Haradinaj 
personally.  However, it reflects the personality of its two top 
officials: the intellectual firepower and astute analysis of Shala 
and the clever tactical instincts of Haradinaj.  As such it is a 
 
PRISTINA 00000477  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
bold attempt to break what many believe is the increasingly stale 
mold of post-1999 Kosovo politics.  Whether the time is yet ripe for 
such a change is anyone's guess, but AAK most likely views this 
campaign as the test bid for its national strategy for the general 
elections in 2011. END COMMENT 
 
DELL