VZCZCXRO7982
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSB #0920/01 3290723
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 250723Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5156
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHSM/AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM 0070
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000920 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR BRIAN WALCH 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR MICHELLE GAVIN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: HARARE: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH SWEDISH 
AMBASSADOR 
 
¶1.  (SBU)   SUMMARY:  The Swedish Ambassador to Zimbabwe 
believes that the two keys to improvement of the situation 
here are economic stabilization and security sector reform. 
He is skeptical of improvement in the political situation, 
but thinks that SADC is taking a stronger position and South 
African President Zuma is not as supportive of Mugabe as his 
predecessor was.  The West should take another look at the 
sanctions list within the next few months, and if there is 
some positive progress, consider removing some from it, 
especially parastatals.  We should also consider adding to 
the list.  While we should continue to point out the 
shortcomings and misdeeds of ZANU-PF, we should at the same 
time keep the door open for dialogue with them.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
ECONOMY AND SECURITY ARE THE KEYS TO DEVELOPMENT 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  On November 23 I met with Swedish Ambassador to 
Zimbabwe Sten Rylander.  Rylander has been at post for nearly 
four years and has nearly 30 years experience in southern 
African affairs.  A strong proponent of political and 
economic development in Zimbabwe, he says that he has been 
frustrated in his efforts to get through to his contacts in 
ZANU-PF the importance of working to develop the country 
properly.  The keys to positive development are economic 
stabilization and security sector reform.  For the former, 
nothing will really happen until Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe 
(RBZ) Governor Gideon Gono is removed from that position.  He 
said he has spoken to Gono a number of times about this. 
Gono has said he would be willing to step down, but he is 
worried about his security.  Also, Mugabe won't let him quit. 
 To that end, Rylander believes that the recent rumor of 
Gono's selection to a position in the Manicaland ZANU-PF 
structure might be a positive sign, and a way for Mugabe to 
save face.  If Gono moves to the new position it wouldn't 
look like Mugabe was caving to outside pressure.  The fact 
that the SADC Troika and South African President Zuma have 
all indicated that Gono should be reassigned can't have been 
lost on Mugabe or the rest of the ZANU-PF leadership, but 
they have been recalcitrant up to now. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  On the issue of security sector reform, Rylander 
said that if this is not done right, nothing else will be 
effective.  The EU is currently working with a group of 
Zimbabweans to craft a program that will remove the security 
chiefs as a threat to future reform, but it must be handled 
carefully.  It will also, he said, take some time to take 
effect.  He acknowledged the difficulty in having any contact 
with the more senior security officials, but said that it is 
important that there be contact if we are to know what they 
are thinking or have any hope of influencing them. This same 
principle applies to everyone in government; which does not 
mean we stop criticizing them publicly when they misbehave. 
 
----------------------- 
A NEW LOOK AT SANCTIONS 
----------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Rylander believes that it is only barely possible 
that there will be some positive development within the next 
few months.  He said that the West needs to be prepared for 
the eventuality of such progress and that we need to take a 
fresh look at the sanctions list, especially the parastatals. 
 If there is political movement in the right direction, we 
Q If there is political movement in the right direction, we 
need to be prepared to remove some from the list. He said 
that recently he met with Finance Minister Tendai Biti who 
informed him that there were eight entities on the list that 
are currently not funding ZANU-PF and are paying money into 
the treasury, and they should be delisted.  There are even a 
few individuals on the list, Rylander said, who perhaps 
should be removed if there is political progress.  We should 
also consider adding to the list any who have behaved in ways 
similar to those currently on the list. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Rylander is hardly soft on the GOZ, and that is 
all the more reason that his view on reviewing the sanctions 
list and striving for dialogue with all parties is a valid 
point of view.  His views reflect most of the EU embassies 
here who believe in the principle, "We can twist their arms, 
 
HARARE 00000920  002 OF 002 
 
 
but first we must take their hands."  He has also pointed out 
a key factor:  without some form of insurance for the 
security chiefs, there will be little chance of ever 
achieving true political reform.  END COMMENT. 
 
RAY