VZCZCXRO0026
RR RUEHBC RUEHDA RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHGB #3031/01 3210747
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 170747Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5476
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003031 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID EFIN ECON ETRD PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: National Development Plan Workshop: First GOI Interagency 
Discussions of a Vision and Objectives 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  At a November 5-8 workshop in Erbil, the Ministry 
of Planning and Development Cooperation (MoPDC) briefed other GOI 
ministries and the international community on progress on Iraq's 
National Development Plan (NDP) for 2010-2014. The NDP is a 
follow-on to the 2007-2010 National Development Strategy and is 
conceived as the mechanism around which the GOI will plan its 
national, sectoral, ministerial, and provincial development 
strategies.  Attendance by most GOI ministries at the workshop 
demonstrated a clear interagency attempt to contribute to a shared 
plan and vision for Iraq's future.  However, donor partners remain 
concerned as to how much long-term GOI support the NDP will enjoy 
and how the plan will tie into the budget process.  End Summary. 
 
NDP Workshop: Introduction and Vision 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The National Development Plan (NDP) Workshop, held in Erbil 
on November 5-8, focused on developing a vision and objectives for 
the GOI's five-year development plan for 2010-2014.  The NDP is 
budgeted at $200 billion dollars.  The NDP is a follow-on to the 
2007-2010 National Development Strategy and is conceived as the 
mechanism around which the GOI will plan its national, sectoral, 
ministerial, and provincial development strategies.  The Ministry of 
Planning and Development Cooperation (MoPDC) is the lead GOI entity 
for preparing the plan.  The original schedule called for the NDP to 
be published in final form in October 2009, but this deadline 
appears to have been pushed back to at least December. 
 
¶3. (SBU) During the workshop's opening speeches, MoPDC Minister Ali 
Baban said Iraq needs to diversify its oil-dependent economy, 
attract foreign investment, and develop its agricultural, 
industrial, and hydrocarbon sectors.  United Nations Population Fund 
Country Representative George Georgi noted that the NDP sets an 
agenda for the UN and Iraq to work together and opens the door for 
cooperation with Iraq's partners.  MoPDC Deputy Minister Sami Matti, 
Head of the NDP technical committee, stated that the NDP must 
include the private sector's contribution to infrastructure and 
business development. 
 
¶4. (SBU) MoPDC Chief of Staff Ahmed Alyassry told Econoff that he 
anticipated that the first draft of the NDP would be finished by the 
end of November and ready for submission to the Council of Ministers 
by mid-December.  He said the key issues of the workshop were to set 
targets for the NDP, and discuss strategy. 
 
NDP Objectives 
-------------- 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) The NDP workshop examined a number of papers that outline 
Iraq's development objectives by economic sector.  In agriculture, 
Iraq's objectives are to expand the sector's share in the economy 
and address food security.  Specifically, the draft NDP calls for 
creating agriculture-related companies, increasing domestic 
vegetable production, and reaching agreement with Iraq's neighbors 
on sharing of water resources.  Additionally on water resource 
issues, the NDP goals are to build more dams, improve the country's 
irrigation infrastructure, complete the drainage system, and 
establish water rights. 
 
¶6. (SBU) In the energy sector, the draft NDP's objectives are to 
boost oil production from the current level of 2.5 million barrels 
per day (mpd) to 4.5 million in 2014; raise oil refinery daily 
capacity from 0.85 million barrels mpd to 1.45 million mpd in 2016; 
reduce flared gas emissions; and raise crude oil storage capacity. 
Qreduce flared gas emissions; and raise crude oil storage capacity. 
Iraq's objectives in the electricity sector are to improve its 
distribution of electricity and increase generation from 1,100 
kilowatts per hour per capita (kw/hr) to 3,700 kw/hr, to address the 
gap between demand and supply. 
 
¶7. (SBU) In the industrial sector, Iraq's goals are to develop an 
industrial labor force, rehabilitate state-owned enterprises and 
factories that are "economically feasible," and establish financing 
for the private sector.  Transportation sector goals are to build 
more roads, bridges, and highway networks around cities, develop its 
railway network, and modernize harbors and airports to respectively 
handle larger vessels and more air traffic.  Communication sector 
goals include expansion of the country's IT network, raising the 
percentage of Iraqis who have access to the internet and own a cell 
phone, and raising the per capita ratio of fixed-line telephones. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Social objectives include developing a general strategy for 
reforming laws related to women's rights to provide greater gender 
equality in society.  In the education sector, goals include 
eradicating illiteracy and raising the percentage of children going 
to primary school.  In the health sector, objectives include raising 
 
BAGHDAD 00003031  002 OF 002 
 
 
the level of health for everyone and providing food safety.  On 
labor, the objective is to lower the unemployment rate from the 
current 18 percent to seven percent. 
 
Donor and UN reaction to NDP Workshop 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Comments at the workshop sessions highlighted the draft 
NDP's strong economic bent, focusing on investment.  UNDP officials 
told Emboffs that the main contribution of the workshop was the 
consultative process and for the MoPDC to "get buy-in" from other 
GOI agencies.  (Comment:  The workshop's success in bolstering the 
NDP support among the government agencies may depend on whether the 
MoPDC incorporates suggestions from the line ministries into the 
final draft of the NDP.  End comment.)  Several donor countries 
commented that the funding of the NDP, which requires $200 billion 
over five years, was not addressed at the conference.  The GOI plans 
to use $75-$100 billion in public funding, with the rest of the NDP 
monies coming from private investment.  Some workshop participants 
expressed concern that Iraq's economic growth might not lead to the 
amount of private investment needed for the plan.  UN officials also 
stressed the view that the NDP should include Millennium Development 
Goals (MDGs) in its objectives for each sector.  Other comments 
during the workshop's concluding session noted that the NDP 
objectives did not include the issues of governance, corruption, or 
security - and that not addressing these issues would affect the 
Plan's implementation.  As a result, the MoPDC agreed to include a 
chapter on Good Governance and also accepted the Millennium 
Development Goals (MDGs) as a framework for social services 
delivery. 
 
¶10. (SBU) MoPDC Deputy Minister Sami's concluding remarks noted that 
his ministry is currently revising all technical sector papers, 
taking input provided by various GOI agencies and donors at this 
workshop.  Sami added that the MoPDC will now use these revised 
papers to produce a final NDP draft at the end of November.  He 
noted that the technical papers for the sectors of tourism, culture 
and antiquities, the private sector, and housing and reconstruction 
are still being revised.  The MoPDC is also studying over 4,000 
submitted projects, with plans to attach the selected projects to 
the NDP for funding. 
 
¶11. (SBU) The optics of GOI cooperation with the KRG were quite 
positive.  The KRG hosted the conference in Erbil and the new KRG 
Minister of Planning, Dr. Ali Sindi, attended.  KRG officials 
participated constructively in many of the sessions. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) USAID - through its Tatweer project - has been 
instrumental in helping the Government formalize and develop the 
NDP.  For the past 18 months, the USAID/Tatweer project has been 
appointed by Minister Baban as the advisor for all technical 
committees, and the project has provided critical assistance in 
helping formalize and draft the NDP.  During the preparatory phase 
of the NDP, several Tatweer subject matter experts were provided to 
support the development of this plan.  During the conference, the 
Tatweer project provided twenty advisors, who acted as main 
facilitators for the various working groups. The technical papers 
were reworked on a nightly basis by the project's staff in 
preparation for the next day discussions at the conference. (The 
Erbil conference logistics and costs were shared by the USG, the UN 
and the GOI.) 
 
¶13. (SBU) With the International Compact with Iraq (ICI) and the 
International Reconstruction Fund Facility for Iraq (IRFFI) both 
QInternational Reconstruction Fund Facility for Iraq (IRFFI) both 
winding down (septel), and with the GOI singularly focused on the 
upcoming election and political transition, the UN and many other 
international partners see the NDP as the most comprehensive 
articulation of Iraq's development priorities.  At the same time, 
many partners remain concerned as to how much GOI interagency 
support the NDP has, how it ties into the budget process, and how 
the international partners can engage with the GOI on politically 
sensitive topics such as governance and corruption.  There is also 
no clear indication as to the level of support the NDP will have in 
the next administration after the election and the political will to 
carry it forward.  We will continue to closely monitor and support 
all GOI efforts at articulating its development priorities - and 
continue to work with the UN, World Bank, and other partners here in 
supporting the GOI to implement those priorities. 
 
HILL