VZCZCXRO9200
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0781 3201419
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 161419Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3022
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 000781 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/E MARIA BEYZEROV, AF/RSA 
STATE ALSO FOR DS/IP/AF BRENDAN MURRAY 
PARIS FOR WBAIN 
LONDON FOR PLORD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2019 
TAGS: PHSA EWWT MARR MA CN MP SE
SUBJECT: GROWING THREAT OF PIRACY IN MALAGASY AND COMORAN 
WATERS 
 
Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF DOVIE HOLLAND FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D. 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Piracy in the Indian Ocean is expanding south 
and east beyond the Gulf of Aden and the Somali coast, and 
will likely reach Malagasy or Comoran territorial waters by 
¶2010.  Neither country has the resources to deter or respond 
to this threat, nor will they be able to rely on French naval 
assets in the region (based out of Reunion) for assistance. 
Given the relatively small number of incidents in the region 
thus far, counter-piracy measures will continue to be most 
effective near Somalia, where the bulk of attacks occur. 
However, as increasingly successful efforts there drive 
activity elsewhere, Madagascar, Comoros, Mauritius and 
Seychelles will have to address this growing threat. END 
SUMMARY. 
 
PIRACY EXPANDING SOUTH AND EAST FROM SOMALIA 
-------------------------------------------- 
¶2. (C) Two recent attacks near Assumption Island (part of 
Seychelles' Aldabra group of outer islands) provided insight 
into the growth of piracy in the Indian Ocean.  While the 
vast majority of activity remains concentrated in the Gulf of 
Aden and the Somali coast, increasingly effective 
countermeasures are driving entrepreneurial pirates further 
afield.  Information from recent debriefs of the crew of the 
Indian Ocean Explorer, hijacked in March 2009, indicate that 
the vessel was captured by an experienced crew responsible 
for several high-profile hijackings in 2008 to 2009.  The 
pirates reportedly stated their intention to expand their 
operating area towards Madagascar and the Maldives, and 
target cruise ships for their ability to bring in a high 
ransom. 
 
¶3. (C) According to DOD statistics, there have been 153 
incidents (including attempted boarding, vessels fired upon, 
and vessels hijacked) in the Indian Ocean from January to 
October 2009 alone, compared with only 86 in all of 2008. 
The territory in which pirates operate has expanded massively 
over the past several years, growing from roughly 165 
nautical miles (nm) off the coast of Somalia in 2005 to 1,000 
nm in 2009.  The recent attacks in Seychelles' waters brings 
piracy within about 200nm of Malagasy shoreline. 
Furthermore, the Mozambique Channel, which separates 
Madagascar from mainland Africa, represents a prime target 
with its heavy shipping traffic.  On November 5, press 
reports indicated that a Greek cargo ship, the Delvina, had 
been hijacked by suspected Somali pirates 220 nm north of 
Madagascar, as the ship was traveling en route to Mombasa, 
Kenya. 
 
MADAGASCAR AND COMOROS UNABLE TO RESPOND 
---------------------------------------- 
¶4. (C) Madagascar and Comoros do not have the naval assets 
necessary to respond to the threat of piracy.  Madagascar's 
sole capable patrol asset is a single fishing surveillance 
ship; Comoros has none at all.  In the event of a pirate 
attack, these countries would likely seek assistance from 
France, which has a naval presence in nearby Reunion - but 
the distances are too great for any kind of rapid response, 
and France does not maintain any deterrence in the Mozambique 
Channel.  The governments of Mauritius and Seychelles are 
more cognizant of this threat, and have been seeking training 
and resources from regional allies, but they too will be 
unable to assist if trouble arises in Madagascar or Comoros. 
 
¶5. (C) COMMENT: Madagascar and Comoros remain far from the 
action, but the threat of piracy is increasingly real, and 
there will likely be incidents within Madagascar's 
territorial waters by 2010.  The threat remains too low to 
justify an international response at this time, but should 
there be an increase in attacks, these countries will be 
entirely unable to address the problem without help, and they 
have not been oblivious to the extensive media coverage of 
international efforts to assist the Seychelles as piracy has 
crept into their territorial waters. END COMMENT. 
 
¶6. (SBU) This cable has been cleared by Embassy Port Louis. 
MARQUARDT