VZCZCXYZ0031
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNJ #0467/01 2941402
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 211402Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7339
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUEHZN/EST COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS NDJAMENA 000467 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/C, OES/PCI 
STATE PLEASE PASS USAID/AFRICA/SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (DAVID 
ATWOOD) 
ACCRA FOR REO (FISHMAN)AND FOR USAID/WA 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV TBIO EFIS EAID CD
SUBJECT: WHY IS LAKE CHAD SHRINKING AND WHAT CAN BE DONE ABOUT IT? 
 
REF: A. NDJAMENA 461 
  ¶B. NDJAMENA 460 
  ¶C. NDJAMENA 404 
 
PORTIONS OF THIS CABLE ARE SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  NOT FOR 
INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: This is the third of three cables on Chad's 
interest in environmental affairs.  Government officials and experts 
cited several reasons why Lake Chad is shrinking -- rapid population 
growth, climate change and desertification, and seasonal and 
cyclical rainfall patterns -- during the visit of Regional 
Environmental Officer for West and Central Africa (REO) to Ndjamena 
October 6-9, 2009.  The Lake Chad Basin Commission has begun to look 
at long-term solutions to the problem, most notably through an 
18-month feasibility study of channeling water from the Oubangi 
river to the Chari river (the main feeder of the lake).  There will 
no doubt be serious questions about the potential adverse impact 
that the canal project could have on upstream users in the Central 
African Republic, DRC and the Republic of Congo (Brazzaville).  More 
fundamentally, given the size of the populations that now depend on 
the lake, it is difficult to see how the lake can be managed 
sustainably over the medium to long term in the absence of a serious 
agreement among Chad, Cameroon, Nigeria and Niger regulating the use 
of the lake's still vast but dwindling resources.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------- 
A Vast Inland Lake in the Sahel 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Lake Chad and the sourrounding basin spans the trans-border 
regions of Chad, Cameroon, Nigeria and Niger.  The lake is a major 
source of fresh water in the Sahel (the semi-arid band of grassland 
that stretches across the African continent just south of the 
Sahara), providing water for not only human and animal consumption, 
but also for irrigation, agriculture and fishing activities. 
 
¶3. (U) No one disputes that Lake Chad has shrunk dramatically over 
the last 45 years.  In 1963, satellite imagery estimated that the 
lake's surface area was approximately 25,000 square kilometers. 
Experts today estimate that the lake is no more than 2,000 square 
kilometers, and during extremely dry periods over the last 45 years, 
the lake's surface area shrank to as little as 1,300 square 
kilometers.  Even so, the lake is still a vast and substantial body 
of water that was roughly the size of Vermont in 1963, but is now 
about half the size of Rhode Island. 
 
¶4. (SBU) While the lake's vast territory once spread over Chad, 
Cameroon, Nigeria and Niger, it seems clear that the lake is 
currently only a dry basin in Niger, and our interlocutors disagreed 
about whether some small portion of the lake might still extend into 
Nigerian territory.  Some geospatial maps show that the lake's 
current territory only spans Chad and Cameroon, though some islands 
in the lake belong to Nigeria, and the lake's waters are still 
widely used by Nigerian fisherman and farmers, according to Chadian 
officials and experts. 
 
--------------------------- 
Why is Lake Chad Shrinking? 
--------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) During REO's October 6-9 visit to Ndjamena, government 
officials and experts offered several explanations for why Lake Chad 
is shrinking, including climate change, desertification and 
evaporation; cyclical rainfall patterns; and substantilly increased 
use of water resources due to rapid population growth and farming 
around the lake.  Secretary General Sandjima Dounia of the Ministry 
of Environment and Aquatic Resources stated that his ministry 
estimated that the Sahara desert was marching southward in Chad at 
the rate of 5-6 kilometers per year.  Desertification was creating 
higher average surface temperatures at Lake Chad, which was 
accelerating the process of evaporation at the lake. 
 
¶6. (U) Likewise, rapid population growth and a corresponding 
increase in agriculture activities have contributed to the lake's 
shrinkage.  Officials from the Ministry of Environment and Aquatic 
Resources reported that some 22 million people rely on the waters of 
Lake Chad, including some 10 million Nigerians, and at least one 
million Chadians who use the lake as their primary source of water 
for human and animal consumption, irrigation, and for fishing. 
However, officials from the Lake Chad Basin Commission and some 
press reports claim that as many as 30 million people now depend on 
the lake's waters.  Even by conservative measures, the population 
using the lake has tripled since 1963, as only about seven million 
people depended on the lake 45 years ago, according to Chaibou 
Mahaman, Project Director of the Lake Chad Basin Commission. 
 
¶7. (U) Chadian officials' statements are largely consistent with the 
scholarly research on the lake.  For instance, a University of 
Wisconsin study funded by NASA, as well as other research, has 
concluded that the major factors in Lake Chad's shrinkage include 
declining rainfall and a long drought period in the Sahel over the 
last 45 years; large increases in population and in agricultural and 
irrigation activity around the lake; and increases in surface 
temperatures and accelerating evaporation. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Bourdannet Waguing, the Administrative and Financial 
Director of the Lake Chad Development Company (SODELAC), which is 
responsible for agriculture development on the Chadian territory 
around the lake, played down the significance of Chadian farming and 
irrigation activities as a cause of the lake's shrinkage.  In his 
view, the lake's size is more directly dependant on seasonal 
rainfall patterns, and there is no direct correlation between the 
scale of farming activities and the size of the lake.  He 
acknowledged, however, that in periods where the lake's waters 
receded, agriculture activity immediately around the lake tended to 
increase, as farmers moved in to plant corn, wheat, millet, beans 
and other vegetables in polders (geographic depressions between sand 
dunes that have recently been exposed by the receding lake).  In 
addition, with ten times as many Nigerians living in the basin as 
Chadians, he also noted that irrigation and farming activities on 
the Nigerian side of the basin dwarfed those on the Chadian side, 
and were a much bigger drain on the lake's water resources. 
 
------------------------------------ 
What Could Be Done to Save the Lake? 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶9. (U) The Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) is a parastatal 
organization founded in 1963 by Chad, Cameroon, Nigeria and Niger, 
and subsequently joined by the Central African Republic and Libya. 
One of the commission's main aims is to promote the rational and 
sustainable use of the basin's water resources.  LCBC Project 
Director Mahaman told us that in October 2009, the LCBC had hired a 
Canadian consulting company to conduct a USD 6 million, 18-month 
long study on the feasibility of digging a 145 kilometer canal that 
would connect the Oubangi and Chari rivers.  In theory, the canal 
would increase the water volume in the Chari River, which supplies 
about 70 percent of the lake's total water supply, and thereby 
substantially increase the amount of water flowing into the lake. 
(Note:  The commission's annual operating budget is less than USD 
4.7 million, and the members are about USD 9.4 million in arrears on 
their annual dues, but the USD 6 million feasibility study is one 
project that has been fully funded.) 
 
¶10. (U) The feasibility study would not only examine the potential 
impacts on water quality, flora and fauna in both river basins, but 
also address the concerns of the DRC, CAR and the Republic of Congo 
(Brazzaville) about the possible effects on the Oubangi's 
navigability and continued potential to support the development of 
hydroelectric dams.  While the idea of building a canal could raise 
many logistical and practical questions for users of both the Chari 
and Oubangi rivers, the 18-month-long study would also look at 
other, less drastic ways to increase water flow into Lake Chad.  One 
option would be to dredge or otherwise improve the flow of the 
Chari, which has a high volume of sand and silt that impedes water 
flow into the lake. 
 
¶11. (U) While the LCBC has been seized with the issue of increasing 
the flow of water into the lake, it appears that there has been much 
less attention paid to sustainable management of the lake's existing 
water and fisheries resources.  Representatives from both the LCBC 
and SODELAC told us that there are no agreements among members on 
the amount of agriculture and irrigation activities that can be 
undertaken around the lake.  Likewise, there is also no agreement on 
fish quotas, or other mechanisms for sustainable fisheries 
management, and the estimated amount of annual fish catch from the 
lake has dramatically declined over the last 45 years.  The LCBC is 
now receiving funding from the African Development Bank to draft a 
water charter that would define the use of water resources among the 
member countries. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Embassy staff most recently visited Lake Chad late last 
month.  Rice paddies within a few kilometers of the lake were green, 
but evidence of creeping desertification was overwhelming, with 
former paddies dry along lengthy stretches of the road, and even 
millet and corn -- planted where rice used to grow -- parched and 
shriveled as a result of this year's diminished rains.  Getting to 
the actual lake itself requires negotiating with police, gendarmes 
and customs agents, all of whom are attempting to prevent smuggling 
(or take a cut) and monitor fishing and water quality. 
 
¶13. (SBU) Local efforts to address the environmental issues of the 
lake basin will not be sufficient; only a regional approach will 
significantly affect the fate of Lake Chad.  As for current 
multilateral initiatives, we believe it very unlikely that the DRC, 
CAR and Republic of Congo (Brazzaville) will approve the building of 
a canal to link the Oubangi and Chari rivers unless and until all of 
their concerns about the potential impact on the Oubangi river basin 
have been fully satisfied.  In addition, with the increased 
populations living around Lake Chad, it is hard to see how the 
lake's continued shrinkage can be prevented without the countries of 
the basin adopting and adhering to sustainable conservation 
practices in water use for human and animal consumption, and in 
irrigation for agriculture. 
 
END COMMENT. 
 
NIGRO