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P 271505Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY GABORONE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6141
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0250
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0233
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 0418
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA GA
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHINGTON DC
RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 GABORONE 000850 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/S 
LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
NSC FOR AFRICA DIRECTOR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON PREL PGOV ZI BC
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S COLLAPSE A MIXED ECONOMIC BAG FOR 
BOTSWANA 
 
¶1. Summary: Zimbabwean migration has had both negative and 
positive impact on neighboring Botswana.  On the downside, 
Zimbabweans are widely blamed for increased crime; they are 
accused of taking jobs from Batswana; and the government has 
been forced to spend its limited resources on both the 
deportation of illegal aliens and care for legitimate 
refugees.  However, Botswana has also benefited from large 
numbers of Zimbabwean professionals and skilled workers who 
have settled here, while low-paid unskilled workers have been 
a boon -- albeit an illegal one -- to the construction and 
agriculture industries.  Zimbabwean migrants' personal and 
professional ties in Botswana grow as the crisis in their 
homeland drags on.  It is unclear whether they will choose to 
return home even if Zimbabwe stabilizes, which could 
jeopardize the potential for a Zimbabwean economic rebound in 
a post-Mugabe dispensation.  End summary. 
 
----------------------------------- 
JUST HOW MANY ZIMBABWEANS ARE HERE? 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶2. Zimbabwean migration to Botswana is nothing new; thousands 
of Zimbabweans moved to Botswana after its 1966 independence 
for political reasons or economic opportunities.  However, 
many returned home after Zimbabwe's 1980 independence. 
Ministry of Foreign Affairs Africa and Asia Director 
Ambassador Zibane Nthakwana told Poloff that this 
post-independence return was actually a blow to Botswana's 
economy, as the Zimbabwean migrants filled many skilled 
positions in the private and public sectors, particularly at 
the nascent University of Botswana.  Zimbabwe's political 
crisis and economic collapse in the late 1990s started the 
latest round of immigration.  Many Zimbabweans have family 
ties on both sides of the 600 kilometer shared border, and 
these ties combined with Botswana's booming economy made 
Botswana -- particularly the northern city of Francistown -- 
a natural destination for migrants. 
 
¶3. In meetings with journalists, businessmen, and government 
officials, Poloff repeatedly asked for estimates of how many 
Zimbabwean -- legal and illegal -- are currently living inBotswana, but no one 
could provide an official estimate. 
Ntakhwana noted that the GOB is currently deporting about 
3,000 illegal Zimbabweans a month, but that this probably 
represents just the tip of the iceberg.  Ultimately, he said 
that Zimbabwean residents likely number in the hundreds of 
thousands, but were impossible to count given the large 
number of undocumented migrants. 
 
 
------------------------- 
DOWNSIDES FOR BOTSWANA... 
------------------------- 
 
¶4. If you ask Batswana about the impact of Zimbabwean 
immigration, the first thing most mention is crime. 
Zimbabweans, they say, are responsible for a significant 
increase in crime the country has seen in the past five 
years, particularly stock theft and petty crimes like 
housebreaking and theft.  One Francistown journalist told 
Poloff that violent crime in that town was "unheard of" 
QPoloff that violent crime in that town was "unheard of" 
before the influx of Zimbabweans, while another claimed that 
up to 90 percent of sex workers around Francistown are 
Zimbabwean.  However, it is difficult to find statistics to 
document these perceptions.  Police statistics show that 
crime has increased for several years, but it is not clear 
whether Zimbabweans are to blame, as police contacts were 
unable to provide statistics regarding the nationality of 
arrested criminals.  There are some cases in which 
Zimbabweans are unfairly blamed for crime.  For example, 
Gadzani Mhotsha, Secretary General of the Botswana Federation 
of Trade Unions, said that his family members on the border 
 
GABORONE 00000850  002 OF 003 
 
 
recently had cattle stolen, and after following the tracks, 
they found that the rustlers had taken the cattle toward 
Zimbabwe, but then crossed back into Botswana, attempting to 
make it look like the rustlers were Zimbabwean. 
 
¶5. Batswana also complain that Zimbabweans take jobs from 
locals, particularly unskilled jobs.  Mhotsha notes that 
despite strict rules about hiring non-citizens, businesses -- 
particularly in the construction and agriculture sectors -- 
frequently hire Zimbabwean workers for far less than the law 
would mandate a Motswana be paid.  Skilled professions are 
also effected.  Some private schools hire Zimbabwean teachers 
for about P2,500 (about $400) per month instead of the P6,000 
(almost $1,000) per month a Motswana would demand.  According 
to Botswana Confederation of Commerce, Industry, and Manpower 
(BOCCIM) Deputy Executive Director Norman Moleele, the lure 
of cheap, skilled, and enthusiastic Zimbabwean labor is hard 
to resist for many employers, particularly small businesses. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
...BUT SKILLS TRANSFER, TRADE BOLSTERS ECONOMY 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶6. Though its economy performs well, Botswana is a small 
country (less than 2 million citizens) with many capacity 
constraints, and so despite the downsides of Zimbabwean 
immigration, everyone interviewed by Poloff acknowledged that 
the skills brought to Botswana by educated Zimbabwean 
migrants are valuable.  Maleele said Botswana's employers, 
particularly in white collar industries, love employing 
Zimbabweans -- they are generally highly educated and work 
much harder than many young Batswana, whom Maleele described 
as increasingly entitled and lazy. 
 
¶7. Cross-border commerce also has boosted Botswana business 
in recent years, particularly in Francistown, although the 
stabilization of the Zimbabwean economy due to dollarization 
has slowed this.  According to local journalists, from about 
2006-2008 Francistown was practically overrun by Zimbabwean 
shoppers, leading to shortages and massive queues, 
particularly during the holidays.  The last year has seen a 
sharp decline in shoppers coming to stock up on bulk food 
items, although they now buy cheap, Chinese-made electronics 
to resell in Zimbabwe. 
 
----------------------- 
WILL THEY EVER GO HOME? 
----------------------- 
 
¶8. Should the political and economic situation improve in 
Zimbabwe, the question remains whether Zimbabwean workers 
will go home.  Ntakhwana has his doubts, particularly about 
educated workers who are likely to be very skeptical about 
change and wary of leaving stable jobs.  Batswana are 
generally welcoming toward Zimbabweans, particularly skilled 
professionals, and this may entice them to stay.  Unskilled 
workers may be less comfortable and more likely to return 
home, but they are not nearly as crucial to Zimbabwe's 
long-term economic recovery. 
 
¶9. Shingirai Madondoe, a Zimbabwean journalist resident in 
Francistown who is in his early 30s, also has his doubts. 
QFrancistown who is in his early 30s, also has his doubts. 
Asked if he will return, he told Poloff "no" flat out.  He is 
married to a Motswana, they have children, and he is eligible 
for Botswana citizenship ( a foreigner who marries a Motswana 
may become a citizen after two years).  He noted that nearly 
all of his friends from secondary school are in similar 
circumstances -- living abroad; starting families; and 
establishing themselves in careers.  Why, he asked, would 
educated professionals in their prime years want to disrupt 
lives they've established and return home to an uncertain 
future?  It's a good question with no easy answers, but one 
 
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that will have to be addressed for the sake of Zimbabwe's 
future. 
NOLAN