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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 001329 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, INR/AF 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PU SG
SUBJECT: SENEGAL: OPPOSITION LEADER CLAIMS BISSAU-GUINEA 
DESERTERS JOIN MFDC REBELS IN CASAMANCE 
 
REF: DAKAR 01261 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Marcia S. Bernicat for reasons 1.5 B/D. 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: On October 9, Abdoulaye Bathily, secretary 
general of the opposition Democratic League/Movement for the 
Labor Party (LD/MPT), solicited a meeting with Political 
Counselor to express his concern about recent events in 
Senegal's Casamance region.  Bathily informed PolCouns that, 
according to information gathered by his party members in the 
region, Movement of Democratic Forces in the Casamance (MFDC) 
rebels are in the process of rearming and a significant 
portion of the weapons are arriving from Guinea Bissau. 
Moreover, members of the Bissau-Guinean armed forces involved 
in the March assassinations of the president and armed forces 
chief of staff in Guinea-Bissau, have deserted the 
Bissau-Guinean armed forces, with their arms, and taken 
refuge in the MFDC's camps along the border with Senegal and 
in Casamance, apparently out of fear of prosecution that will 
ostensibly follow the ongoing investigation into the 
assassinations.  Bathily also claimed that narcotics 
traffickers have entered into agreements with MFDC fighters 
for smuggling purposes and that this is a source of funding 
in the rearmament process.  When asked by the Ambassador, 
Senegalese Foreign Affairs Minister Madicke Niang and MOF 
Chief of Staff Mankeur Ndiaye denied that there was any 
Bissau-Guinean involvement in the recent upturn in violence, 
insisting that the GOGB was taking every appropriate measure 
to combat the MFDC.  End summary. 
 
The Conflict May Escalate 
------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) Bathily told PolCouns that he decided to contact the 
US Embassy out of concern for a potential escalation in the 
conflict.  He said he had shared this information with a very 
limited number of opposition leaders.  However, he had no 
intention of sharing this information with the GOS, given 
what he believes to be President Abdoulaye Wade's feckless 
handling of the Casamance conflict.  Bathily said that it was 
his concern regarding an escalation of the conflict, combined 
with the emergence of narcotics trafficking, that led him to 
share with the Embassy his information.  In his view and 
based on information he has received from his party members 
in the Casamance, the nature of the conflict is changing; 
rebels will attack soldiers of the Senegalese army rather 
than simply target civilians for robberies, as recently 
witnessed (reftel). 
 
¶3.  (C) Bathily corroborated reports that recent attacks 
against the armed forces were carried out by young dissidents 
in the southern faction of the MFDC. 
As a result, he claimed that the MFDC faction of Salif Sadio, 
the most hard-line MFDC rebel chief, is now taking steps to 
become more active than previously.  Allegedly, Sadio, who is 
supported by Gambian President Yahya Jammeh, is loath to 
allow initiative to shift to the MFDC faction(s) in the 
southern Casamance.  (Note: President Jammeh has recently 
called for a cease-fire in the Casamance. End note.) Bathily 
alleged that the Senegalese army has poor intelligence and 
lacks both the resources and manpower to wage a serious 
counterinsurgency campaign in Casamance.  He was dismissive 
of President Wade's past efforts to buy off and divide and 
conquer the rebels, arguing that this strategy had merely set 
the stage for current events.  (Comment:  According to some 
reports, younger rebels were either tired of not getting 
their share of the &buy-off8 money or believe their senior 
leaders have sold out to Wade.  End Comment) 
 
Drug traffickers Cut a Deal with Rebels 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) Bathily insisted that narcotics traffickers have 
established some kind of agreement with MFDC rebels.  He 
believes that these agreements have enabled MFDC rebels to 
acquire new weaponry and perhaps cash.  The danger, in his 
view, is that traffickers will use the waterways in the 
Casamance as smuggling routes.  The trafficking may extend to 
the Saloum delta midway along the Senegalese coast and just 
north of the Gambia.  He urged the United States, in its 
efforts to fight transnational crime, to pay attention to 
this evolution and also push President Wade to make finding a 
resolution of the Casamance conflict a priority. 
 
 
DAKAR 00001329  002 OF 002 
 
 
GOS Skeptical (or Not Aware) of Bissau-Guinea Presence 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶5.  (C) On October 19, Ambassador Bernicat met with newly 
appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs Niang and discussed, 
inter alia, the Casamance conflict.  Asked about the possible 
of involvement of MFDC rebels, the Minister and his Chief of 
Staff Ndiaye expressed skepticism but were non-committal with 
Ndiaye saying, "We do not have any information on that." 
However, both insisted that the GOGB (contrary to earlier 
reports) is cooperating with regard to the MFDC and is taking 
appropriate measures to contain the rebels. 
 
¶6.  (C) When Army Attache queried Senegalese interlocutors 
about the possibility of the presence of Bissau-Guinean 
deserters taking up arms with the MFDC to escape prosecution 
for the March assassinations, they dismissed the notion out 
of hand, noting that the unit of newly confirmed 
Bissau-Guinean Deputy Chief of Staff Colonel Antonio Injai 
was responsible for the assassination of former President 
Vieira.  Therefore, it is unlikely that Bissau-Guinean 
soldiers involved in Vieira's assassination would have 
anything to fear.  (Comment: While it is true that soldiers 
involved in Vieira's death have no reason at the moment to 
flee potential prosecution, those suspected of involvement in 
the killing of former Chief of Staff General Batiste Tagme Na 
Wai would have every reason to flee, given that Na Wai's 
nephew and protg, Injai, has already carried out the 
assassination of Vieira in revenge for his uncle's death and, 
it is credibly reported, tortured people suspected of 
involvement in the general's death.  Moreover, Bissau-Guinean 
soldiers of limited means and education would not have many 
other options if they chose to flee.  Finally, it is also 
possible that some might have familial or other ties to 
people of the Casamance.  End comment.) 
 
¶7.  (C) Comment: If it were not such a credible and senior 
figure making the charge, it would be easy to be dismissive 
of the possibility of Bissau-Guinean deserters taking up arms 
with the MFDC.  However, Bathily is a former minister under 
Wade and a senior opposition leader.  So, while it is by no 
means a given that his allegations are accurate, it is a 
cause for concern and merits further scrutiny.  He is 
undoubtedly correct that an MFDC alliance or compact with 
traffickers could easily lead to a significant escalation in 
violence in the Casamance and fundamentally alter the nature 
of the conflict.  Senegalese military in Casamance say they 
would be ill-equipped to fight such a threat. 
 
¶8.  (C) Regarding Bathily,s request that the USG push 
President Wade to resolve the Casamance dispute, Post has 
proposed to various interlocutors, including President Wade, 
that the U.S. would be willing to consider providing its 
expertise in demobilization of MFDC members once an agreement 
is reached.  We have emphasized the newer dangers narcotics 
trafficking and the instability in Guinea-Bissau pose to this 
already volatile region. The U.S. Government has invested 
significantly in the Casamance:  USD 1.3 million in FY09 
funding will continue USAID efforts to support the peace 
process, State has provided funding Handicap International to 
continue its demining efforts and roughly half of the 
newly-signed USD 540 million MCC Compact will improve roads 
and irrigation systems to increase food production in the 
region, to be further augmented by President Obama,s Food 
Security Initiative.  Escalating fighting threatens to 
undermine all of these initiatives. 
BERNICAT