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S E C R E T ISLAMABAD 002093 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER IN PK
SUBJECT: GOP ANNOUNCES REFORMS TOWARD AUTONOMY FOR THE 
"NORTHERN AREAS" IN SIGNAL TO INDIA TO JUMP START THE 
BACK-CHANNEL 
 
Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  Prime Minister Gilani announced August 29 
changes to the governance of Pakistan's "Northern Areas." 
The region will now be called "Gilgit-Baltistan" and enjoy 
most of the political arrangements of a province, less the 
right to representation in the Federal Parliament.  Minister 
for Parliamentary Affairs Babar Awan said the changes had 
been made by the GOP for two reasons:  to stem whatever 
appeal the taliban might enjoy among separatists in the 
Northern Areas; and to send a signal to India that Pakistan 
is serious about restarting the back-channel talks on the 
status of Kashmir.  Jahangir Karamat, said Awan, would 
hopefully serve as Pakistan's point of contact for the back 
channel.  The GOP could not go further in making reforms 
without ammending the constitution; PM Gilani said 
"Gilgit-Baltistan" will not have the status of a province. 
End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (C) Prime Minister Gilani announced August 29 changes to 
the governance of Pakistan's "Northern Areas," the 
northern-most region of the country.  The region under the 
new "Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self-Government 
Ordinance  of 2009" will henceforth be known as 
"Gilgit-Baltistan."  It will be granted many of the political 
arrangements of a province: including, a Governor appointed 
by the President; a Chief Minister; and a local assembly. 
Gilani made clear, however, that while the announced reforms 
are meant to constitute greater self-rule for the region, 
"Gilgit-Baltistan" is not a province. 
 
¶3.  (C) The region has been treated administratively as an 
adjunct to Pakistan-held Kashmir (AJK) and fell under the 
federal authority of the Minister for Kashmir and Northern 
Areas.  While the reforms were greeted with praise by most 
political parties in Islamabad, they are not sufficient to 
meet the aspirations of the populace, which is cognizant it 
has no representation in the Federal Parliament. 
 
¶4.  (S) Minister for Parliamentary Affairs Babar Awan told 
PolCouns August 31 the changes had been made by the GOP for 
two reasons:  to stem the appeal of talibanism/extremism to 
the separtist movement in the  Northern Areas; and to send a 
signal to India that Pakistan wants to restart the 
back-channel talks on the status of Kashmir.  Former 
Ambassador and COAS Jahangir Karamat, said Awan, would serve 
as Pakistan's point of contact for the back channel (assuming 
he accepted the position of National Security Advisor.) 
 
¶5.  (C) The government could go no farther in granting 
reforms, said Awan, as to do so would call for a change to 
Pakistan's Constitution.  The area formerly known as the 
Northern Areas has had uncertain Constitutional status and 
its fate has been tied to that of AJK since the founding of 
the nation.  While the status of the Northern Areas has been 
held hostage to uncertainty over Kashmir and larger 
negotiations with India, the people of Gilgit-Baltistan 
believe they live in a region that is historically culturally 
and ethnically separate from AJK.  They view the 
pre-partition rule of the Maharajah of Kashmir as only one in 
a series of foreign rulers, despite ethnic and cultural ties 
to the Buddhists of Ladakh.  Activists for the Kashmiri 
cause, however, have already signaled their belief that 
granting the Northern Areas further autonomy only weakens 
Pakistan's claim on greater Kashmir.  Historically, the 
Northern Areas vote was counted to uphold the contention that 
predominantly Muslim Kashmir belonged to Pakistan. 
 
¶6.  (C) An ethnically diverse, sparsely populated and 
impoverished part of Pakistan, Gilgit-Baltistan is sandwiched 
between the great mountain ranges of the Hindu Kush and the 
Karakoram on the north and the Himalaya on the south.  An 
estimated 1.5 million people inhabit the 72,495 square 
kilometers that comprise the area.  An ill-defined border 
with China's Xinjiang territory explains why residents in the 
far western corner of Gilgit-Baltistan (Ghanche) were worried 
this summer when conflict erupted between the government of 
China and Xinjiang separatists.  The heavy presence of China 
in the region is generally regarded as a double-edged sword: 
the Chinese built the great Karakoram Highway that runs north 
from Gilgit to China and serves as the region's main artery 
(and its only modern highway, superseding the old Silk Road 
trail).  But residents, who mostly live off subsistence 
agriculture (and tourism) fear Chinese designs on water and 
other resources. 
 
¶7.  (C) Gilgit-Baltistan, and particularly the city of Gilgit 
itself, has been the scene of sectarian violence.  The region 
is largely Shia, with some portions Ishmaeli, while Baltistan 
is culturally tied to Ladhakh.  The historically independent 
kingdom of Hunza is also part of the region.  But village by 
village differences in language, religion and ethnicity 
abound.  Calls for separatism have increased in recent years 
as some residents have argued that the lack of constitutional 
representation in Islamabad, the perceived indifference from 
the capital, and the instability of sectarianism (which some 
believe is instigated from outside the region) prove the 
region has no true political home in Pakistan. 
 
¶8.  (C) At the same time, certain villages have become Sunni, 
under the influence of the large number of inhabitants who 
have traveled to the Gulf for work and returned. 
Improvements to these villages, including the building of 
large mosques and an increase in conservatism, is attributed 
to (unspecified) "Saudi" funds.  Some local Baltistan 
officials speculate that if the taliban were to encroach in 
the region, their first in-roads would be in these villages. 
The GOP is working to make modest improvements to the 
economic situation of some of the regions' residents.  Two 
subregions in the area have been selected to take part in the 
initial outlay of funds dispersed through the Benazir Bhutto 
income support program.  "Gilgit-Baltistan," however, remains 
a dirt poor part of the nation.  One local official in 
Karimibad said the greatest change in his lifetime was the 
universal use of shoes; this in a region with terrain that 
includes K-2, the world's second highest mountain, and the 
disputed Siachen glacier. 
 
¶9.  (S) Comment:  The GOP's intention in making the reform is 
to signal to India Pakistan's willingness to jump-start the 
back-channel talks on Kashmir.  The back-channel deal as it 
was being developed under President Musharraf would have 
granted the Northern Areas to Pakistan and ceded Indian-held 
Jammu and Ladakh to India.  The actual reforms for self-rule, 
as they are being touted, will have some appeal to the 
residents of "Gilgit-Baltistan" who will appreciate, at a 
minimum, recognition of the name they themselves use to 
describe their home.  Whether the reforms will meet the other 
purpose suggested by Awan, of blunting the appeal of 
talibanism, remains to be seen. 
 
 
PATTERSON