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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TOKYO 002000 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2019 
TAGS: PGOV JA
SUBJECT: HISTORIC WIN FOR THE DPJ 
 
REF: A. TOKYO 1987 
     ¶B. TOKYO 1811 
     ¶C. TOKYO 1978 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John V. Roos, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary:  The opposition Democratic Party of Japan 
(DPJ)'s victory on August 30 in the 45th Lower House (House 
of Representatives) was historic and unprecedented.  Alone, 
the DPJ took 308 out of 480 seats, a record-setting figure. 
There was also record turnout and interest in the election, 
which was cast as a choice between change and the status quo. 
 From high numbers of female winners to ruling party 
heavyweights whose political careers were abruptly ended, 
this election has in itself brought about big changes.  And 
there will be more change to come in the following days and 
weeks, with the new Cabinet yet to be formed, the role of now 
ruling party bigwigs such as Ichiro Ozawa still undefined, 
and the future of the formerly ruling Liberal Democratic 
Party (LDP) still unclear. 
 
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Historic Election; Unprecedented Margin of Victory 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2.  (C)  With its August 30 Lower House victory, the DPJ 
succeeded in breaking the LDP's nearly unbroken hold on 
political power in postwar Japan.  Furthermore, the DPJ's 
victory represents the first time an opposition party gained 
power with an overall majority in a general election, as well 
as the first time any party-ruling or opposition-won more 
than 300 seats in the 480-seat Lower House.  The final tally 
of seats for the DPJ (308) and LDP (119) reflected a reversal 
of fortune from the last Lower House election in 2005, when 
the LDP took 296 seats and the DPJ 113. 
 
¶3.  (C)  Because the DPJ, with the help of its partners also 
in the opposition, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and 
People's New Party (PNP), already controls the Diet's Upper 
House, this latest election result means that the DPJ now 
controls the entire Diet.  The 308 seats that it won gives it 
a comfortable majority (241 is the minimum number of seats 
required for a majority), but is a few seats short of the 320 
"super-majority" that would have given the DPJ the power to 
override the Upper House on most issues and rely less on 
cooperation from smaller parties such as the SDP and PNP. 
Although DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama has already committed 
to enter into a coalition arrangement "in some form" with 
these two parties, the value of cooperation from the SDP and 
PNP, which won 7 and 3 seats, respectively, has gone down 
considerably. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
Voters and Those They Elected 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4. (C)  Disappointed with years of economic stagnation, 
growing job insecurity, and breakdown of many aspects of the 
social welfare system, including the loss of millions of 
pension records, Japanese citizens looked to the DPJ, which 
had promised "change" and solutions to of all of the above 
and more problems, as the only viable option to the LDP.  In 
record numbers, even LDP supporters voted for the opposition 
this time.  According to the Asahi Shimbun, 30% of LDP 
backers voted for the DPJ.  In contrast, 84% of DPJ 
supporters voted for the DPJ, with only 2% casting ballots 
for the LDP.  Among voters with no particular party 
affiliation, 53% voted for the DPJ, versus 15% for the LDP. 
 
¶5.  (C)  High voter turnout also is thought to have 
contributed to the DPJ's large margin of victory, as 
undecided and unaffiliated voters usually vote in larger 
numbers for the opposition party or for the party with 
momentum leading up to the election (which this year was the 
DPJ on both counts).  According to the Ministry of Internal 
Affairs and Communication, voter turnout for the single-seat 
 
TOKYO 00002000  002 OF 004 
 
 
portion of the election was 69.28% (slightly higher than the 
67.51% from the previous Lower House election in 2005), and 
69.27% for the proportional representation portion.  These 
figures reflect the highest voter turnout since the 
introduction in 1996 of the current electoral system. 
Ballots cast under the early voting system, at 13.40% of the 
total number of votes cast by election day, was also a 
record-breaking figure, showing increased public interest in 
the election. 
 
¶6.  (C) As they took their desire for change to the ballot 
box, the record numbers of Japanese voters created other 
historical firsts.  For example, 53 female candidates (40 
from the DPJ, the remaining 13 from other parties) won Lower 
House seats-the most in Japanese history (the previous 
highest figure was 43 in 2005).  The public's craving for 
change was also reflected in the number of first-time Diet 
members.  This year, there were 158 such "new faces" from all 
parties (143 from the DPJ, 15 from other parties), making up 
almost one-third of the Lower House.  Hereditary candidates, 
a common and accepted part of the Japanese political 
landscape particularly under LDP rule, also found their 
status being challenged.  Of the 133 candidates who came from 
political families, just 75 of them, or 15.6% of the entire 
Lower House, won.   In 2005, the equivalent figure was 24.6%. 
 
 
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Large Number of DPJ Winners Have Close U.S. Ties 
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¶7.  (C)  Large numbers of DPJ veterans and newcomers who have 
close ties to the United States and good relations with 
Embassy Tokyo were elected.  For example, in addition to DPJ 
President and expected Prime Minister Hatoyama-who has strong 
personal ties to the United States, including graduate work 
at Stanford-other DPJ "America hands" returned to their seats 
on August 30 include Vice President Seiji Maehara, Akihisa 
Nagashima (DPJ Deputy Secretary-General, former Council of 
Foreign Relations Fellow, and SAIS alum), Shu Watanabe (DPJ 
Deputy Secretary-General, Columbia alum), and Yoshinori 
Suematsu (Chairman of the Lower House Committee on Youth 
Affairs, Princeton alum).  Newcomers with U.S. experience 
include Mieko Nakabayashi (former Senate staffer), Takako 
Ebata (MIT grad, who defeated LDP heavyweight Yuriko Koike), 
Toshiro Ishii (UPenn grad school) and Yasuhiro Okada (Harvard 
grad school). 
 
- - - - - - - - - 
Post-Election LDP 
- - - - - - - - - 
 
¶8.  (C)  Sunday's election was also notable because of the 
LDP heavyweights who went down, many to much younger and less 
experienced challengers.  Former Prime Minister Toshiki 
Kaifu, former LDP Vice President Taku Yamasaki, former 
Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa, former Defense Minister 
Fumio Kyuma, former Foreign Minister Taro Nakayama, and LDP 
General Council Chairman Takashi Sasagawa all lost in their 
single-seat districts and were not on the LDP's list for 
proportional representation seats (some due to party 
regulations concerning age).  Also out of the Lower House 
after Sunday is Akihiro Ota, the leader of the New Komeito, 
the LDP's coalition partner and supporter of various 
alliance, security-related initiatives. 
 
¶9.  (C)  A number of LDP members who lost in their 
single-seat districts, however, will continue their political 
careers in the Lower House thanks to their double candidacies 
(their names being on both the single-seat list as well as on 
their party's proportional representation list).  Such "lucky 
losers" include Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano, Internal 
Affairs and Communications Minister Tsutomu Sato, Education 
Minister Ryu Shionoya, Consumer Affairs Minister Seiko Noda, 
Disaster Management Minister Motoo Hayashi, Administrative 
Reform Minister Akira Amari, former Defense Minister Yuriko 
 
TOKYO 00002000  003 OF 004 
 
 
Koike, former Farm Minister Tsutomu Takebe, former Foreign 
Minister Nobutaka Machimura, former Finance Minister Bummei 
Ibuki, and former LDP Secretary General Hidenao Nakagawa. 
 
¶10.  (C)  Winning in their single-seat districts-but not 
having an easy time of it-were three former prime ministers: 
Yoshiro Mori, Shinzo Abe, and Yasuo Fukuda.  Prime Minister 
Taro Aso was similarly able to avoid a humiliating defeat in 
his single-seat district.  Despite his parliamentary victory, 
however, Aso announced the day after the election that he 
would step down as LDP President to take responsibility for 
his party's defeat.  Although his term ends on September 30, 
Aso has indicated that he will hold a poll to determine the 
LDP's next president after Japan's next Prime Minister is 
elected at the upcoming special session of the Diet. 
 
¶11.  (C)  Despite its current political misfortunes, the LDP 
will likely still play a significant role in Japanese 
politics and bilateral relations, although for now in the 
unfamiliar role of the opposition party.  The defeat or 
retirement of many senior members has created an opportunity 
for a new generation of LDP politicians to reconnect with 
voters, and Aso has stressed the importance of listening to 
the views of local supporters in order for the LDP to be 
reborn.  Turmoil within the party, however, may hinder a 
swift reorganization.  Like Aso, LDP Secretary General 
Hiroyuki Hosoda has stated that he will resign, leaving a 
leadership vacuum and no obvious candidates to fill it.  It 
also is unclear what role factions, an institution that has 
traditionally determined party leadership and policy 
direction, will play in the LDP should Japanese politics 
evolve into a two-party system. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - 
The New DPJ Government 
- - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶12.  (U)  Having won the election, the DPJ will now focus on 
putting together its government as soon as it can.  According 
to press reports, Hatoyama and other DPJ executives began 
talks on their transition to power as early as Sunday evening 
and the Prime Minister-to-be is expected to soon launch a 
transition team to pick more officials as well as enter into 
talks with coalition partners SDP and PNP on areas of 
cooperation and joint strategy.  The transition team is 
likely to consist of candidates for major posts, including 
Chief Cabinet Secretary and Finance Minister, and will seek 
to consult with members of the current Aso Cabinet as well as 
senior bureaucrats on both administrative and substantive 
issues.  Despite concern by some that the current regime will 
be obstructive as the new government attempts to get settled 
in, Aso has been gracious in defeat and pledged cooperation 
with the DPJ in implementing policies that would benefit the 
people of Japan.  In fact, the LDP recently announced that it 
would hold its party presidential election after the new 
Prime Minister is chosen, meaning that LDP members will 
nominate Taro Aso as their prime ministerial choice, a wasted 
vote.  This tactic, however, serves two purposes:  it will 
allow the LDP time to consult with local party chapter heads 
on the new party president; and, it will ensure that the 
LDP's own party president selection does not get in the way 
of the election of Japan's new Prime Minister.  By party 
regulation, the LDP's presidential election must take place 
sometime from ten days before the expiration of the current 
president's term, which is September 30. 
 
¶13.  (U)  One of the first issues the DPJ transition team 
will have to work with the current government on is when to 
hold the required special session of the Diet.  On the first 
day of this session, a Lower House plenary session is held to 
elect a new Speaker and Vice Speaker, designate seating for 
Lower House members, select Steering Committee members, and 
nominate a new Prime Minister.  A minimum of three days after 
this Lower House plenary session, the opening ceremony of the 
Diet's special session is held at the Upper House.  The newly 
elected Speaker presides over this ceremony and the Emperor 
 
TOKYO 00002000  004 OF 004 
 
 
officially calls the session into order.  Once sworn in by 
the Emperor, the Prime Minister is able to officially appoint 
his/her ministers designate. 
 
¶14.  (SBU)  Both media reports and Embassy DPJ contacts have 
indicated that the new DPJ Cabinet is likely to be in place 
by the week of September 14 at the latest.  If the new 
Japanese Prime Minister plans on attending the senior-level 
meeting at the UN on climate change on September 22, giving a 
speech at UNGA on September 23-24, and participating in the 
Pittsburgh Summit on September 24-25, the new Cabinet would 
have to be formed by that week, if not sooner.  SEE REFTEL C. 
 
¶15.  (C)  Timing and scheduling are not the only issues the 
DPJ will face in the immediate future.  Obstacles to 
maintaining party unity and managing the Diet will also test 
the new government.  The increase of DPJ Lower House members 
from 113 to 308 means the DPJ will rely on inexperienced 
politicians to implement its policies.  This could prove 
particularly difficult since the DPJ has promised to increase 
the role of politicians (at the expense of bureaucrats) in 
the policy process.  DPJ President Hatoyama addressed this 
concern by saying that many new Diet members had served in 
the Diet previously and that the DPJ had many experienced 
legislators in the Upper House.  Embassy contacts, however, 
have expressed some concern about inexperienced politicians 
in the Lower House and government ministries. 
 
¶16.  (C)  Another complication for the DPJ is what role 
former DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa will play in the new 
administration.  Ozawa hand-picked and supported many of the 
new candidates who led the DPJ to electoral victory.  These 
approximately 100 Diet members, nicknamed "the Ozawa 
Children," are expected to join Ozawa's group, which is 
already the largest in the party.  Although Ozawa has stated 
that he will follow the orders of DPJ President Hatoyama, 
analysts have speculated that a "dual-power structure" may 
emerge within the party.  Hatoyama has said that he will have 
the final say on decisions and that he has "no intention of 
giving a free hand to Mr. Ozawa regarding the management of 
the party."  Hatoyama, however, recognizes Ozawa's skill in 
organizing campaigns and winning elections, and wants Ozawa's 
help in next year's critical Upper House election.  How 
Hatoyama employs Ozawa in his administration will be the key 
to stability within the DPJ. 
ROOS