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DE RUEHRI #0288/01 2391515
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 271515Z AUG 09
FM AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5063
INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 1356
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE PRIORITY 3519
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO PRIORITY 5279
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RIO DE JANEIRO 000288 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/EPSC, MMCMANUS, BDUGGAN 
NSC FOR RACHEL WALSH, LUIS ROSSELLO 
FOR DOE GWARD, RDAVIS, LEINSTEIN, RROSS 
STATE PASS USTR KDUCKWORTH 
DOC FOR ADRISCOLL, LFUSSELL, MCAMERON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2019 
TAGS: BR ECON ENRG PREL
SUBJECT: RIO'S OIL PLAYERS REACT TO SPECULATION ON PRE-SALT 
REGULATIONS 
 
REF: BRASILIA 1021 
 
Classified By: Consul General Dennis W. Hearne. Reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) While the Government of Brazil (GOB) has yet to 
publicize its regulatory framework for the exploration of 
pre-salt reserves (reftel), Petrobras executives, petroleum 
industry representatives, and Rio de Janeiro-based managers 
of American oil firms have expressed concern over the main 
provisions of the reform package reported in the press.  In 
reaction to the likelihood the new framework will mandate 
Petrobras as the sole operator for all unlicensed blocks, 
Petrobras and Brazilian Institute for Petroleum executives 
argued the company does not have sufficient resources to 
effectively carry out this role, which could lead to 
subcontracting opportunities for other oil firms.  While 
petroleum companies praised the concession model under the 
existing regime and opposed the likely shift to production 
sharing contracts (PSC), some analysts argued PSC provisions 
could potentially carry fiscally advantageous terms for 
investors.  The possibility of a new state company to own and 
administer all pre-salt reserves is anathema to industry 
representatives in Rio de Janeiro, although there appears to 
be a sound legal justification for such an entity.  Local 
representatives of Chevron and Exxon Mobile are bracing for a 
far more challenging operating environment, but both 
companies will maintain an active presence in Brazil, 
regardless of the changes the new reform package brings.  End 
Summary. 
 
PETROBRAS AS SOLE OPERATOR 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) In reaction to the widely-accepted perception that the 
new framework will mandate Petrobras as the sole operator for 
all unlicensed blocks, Petrobras and Brazilian Institute for 
Petroleum (IBP) executives in Rio de Janeiro contend the 
company does not have sufficient resources to effectively 
carry out this role.  Fernando Jose Cunha, General Director 
of Petrobras for Africa, Asia, and Euroasia, told Rio Econoff 
on Monday August 17 that such a provision, along with the 
strong likelihood Petrobras will also be guaranteed at least 
a 30 percent share in every block, could deter potential 
investors and partners.  Alvaro Teixeira, General Director 
for IBP, an industry association that represents Petrobras 
and other petroleum companies operating in Brazil, called the 
proposal a "bad idea," stating the GOB would first have to 
recapitalize Petrobras.  According to Gustavo Gattas, a 
prominent energy analyst with UBS Pactual, Petrobras' lack of 
resources will likely lead to extensive contracting for 
pre-salt exploration and production operations.  He explained 
that some companies stand to benefit more than others from 
this model, explaining many IOCs and oil services company 
consider Petrobras to be one of the "harshest" contractors in 
the world. "Some people are comfortable working with 
Petrobras, others are not," he explained. 
 
¶3. (C) Reaction by Rio de Janeiro-based representatives of 
American oil companies to the possibility of Petrobras as the 
sole operator is mixed.  Exxon Mobile's External Relations 
Director Carla Lacerda, told Rio FCS officer on August 10 the 
proposed model constituted a reversion to Brazil's former 
monopoly system.  As the sole operator, she explained, 
Petrobras would have more control over equipment purchases, 
personnel, and technology selection, which, in turn, could 
adversely affect U.S. equipment and service supply to Brazil. 
 Chevron's Director for Business Development and Government 
Relations Patricia Pradal told Rio Econoff on August 21 that 
she had doubts over the legality of such a provision.  "The 
Brazilian government will have to fight this out in the 
courts or change the shareholder composition of Petrobras to 
give the government a greater share," she explained.  In 
spite of that possibility, Pradal did not believe 
non-operating partner status would necessarily be bad for 
Chevron.  She stated, "We are trying to maintain a lower 
profile nowadays," adding, "We area already partnering with 
 
RIO DE JAN 00000288  002 OF 003 
 
 
Petrobras on five projects here." 
 
MOVE FROM CONCESSION TO PRODUCTION SHARING CONTRACTS 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶4. (C) Although industry is opposed to the likely shift from 
concession to production sharing contracts (PSCs) under the 
new regime, PSC provisions could potentially carry fiscally 
advantageous terms for investors.  IBP's Teixeira and 
Chevron's Pradal praised the concession model under the 
existing regime, calling it "strong and stable."  Pradal said 
the shift from such a model to a PSC was a political move, 
explaining "Everything the Brazilian government is trying to 
get from a PSC, they could have done through concessions." 
USB Pactual's Gattas offered a more favorable view on PSCs, 
however, explaining the new model could erase the upfront 
cash payments associated with current concession contracts. 
The Tupi field, for example, required an upfront payment of 
15 million Brazilian Reals (8 million USD).  Gattas also 
explained that new provisions could possibly allow companies 
to recover a greater percentage of their investment within 
the first years of production. "A quick pay back under a PSC 
can be very attractive to many IOCs," he explained. 
 
FORMATION OF NEW STATE COMPANY 
------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (C) The likelihood of a new state company to own and 
administer all pre-salt reserves is anathema to industry 
representatives in Rio de Janeiro.  Petrobras' Cunha stated 
Petrobras never agreed with the concept of a new state 
company.  With Petrobras already at capacity, he did not know 
how such a company would receive its financial and human 
capital. "Will we be robbing Peter to pay Paul?," he asked 
rhetorically.  Chevron's Pradal said the GOB's motivation for 
creating such a company was based on political jockeying, 
stating, "The PMDB needs their own company." (Note: The PMDB, 
the government's coalition partner, has reportedly been 
negotiating with President Lula's PT party for seats on the 
board of such a company, in exchange for political 
concessions going into an election year. Energy Minister 
Edison Lobao, who is a leading PMDB member, was a key 
proponent of the new state entity.  End note).  According to 
USB Pactual's Gattas, however, it makes legal sense for the 
GOB to form a body to serve as a contract counterparty in 
court disputes and PCS re-negotiations."  IBP's Teixeira said 
such a company will consist of less than 100 personnel, and 
would receive technical support from the Ministry of Mines 
and Energy. 
 
UNITIZATION AND LOCAL CONTENT 
----------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) There is mixed reaction over whether unitization and 
local content requirements will be included in the new 
framework.  While some industry players have speculated the 
regulations will address unitization, a term of art in the 
petroleum industry for the process of distributing unlicensed 
blocks that share reservoirs with licensed blocks already 
under concession, Nelson Narciso Filho, Director for the 
Brazilian National Petroleum Regulatory Agency (ANP) stated 
the new regime will not address the unitization issue (Note: 
ANP is responsible for administering unitization.  End Note). 
 "We should not touch unitization until after the new 
regulations are in place," he said.  While the Ministry of 
Mines and Energy Undersecretary for Oil, Natural Gas, and 
Renewables told Brasilia Econoff that the new regulations 
will provide for a flat local content requirement for all 
blocks (reftel), as opposed to local content factoring into 
bidding criteria under the concession system, USB Pactual's 
Gattas doubted this would be the case.  (Note: At the July 20 
CEO Forum, an attendee of Presidential Chief of Staff Dilma 
Rousseff's meeting with the Brazilian CEOs told Brasilia 
Econoff that an increase in local content requirements would 
be part of the new pre-salt regulations.  End Note).  Gattas 
explained local content requirements are already too high for 
the Brazilian equipment companies. "Everyone is fully 
contracted right now," he stated, "And this could go 
overboard."  He argued such requirements would not be 
 
RIO DE JAN 00000288  003 OF 003 
 
 
addressed in the law, but rather handled through individual 
contracts, perhaps based on the precedence of the first PSC 
to fall under the new framework. 
 
AMERICAN OIL COMPANIES: 'WE WILL STAY' 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Although Rio de Janeiro-based representatives of 
Chevron and Exxon Mobile are bracing for a far more 
challenging operating environment, both companies will 
maintain an active presence in Brazil, regardless of the 
changes the new reform package brings.  According to Exxon 
Mobile's Lacerda, the Brazilian market remains attractive, 
especially considering declining access to reserves, world 
wide. Chevron's Padral conceded her company will be 
"struggling" in the coming years, but said existing 
investments and her company's long-term goals here will keep 
Chevron engaged.  "The rules can always improve later on," 
she said. Both Lacerda and Padral stated their companies were 
accustomed to PSCs world-wide and would enter into them here, 
given competitive and transparent terms. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶8. (C) Petroleum actors and insiders in Rio de Janeiro 
uniformly view the pre-salt reform as pre-election 
politicking by the Lula Administration.  Given the fact that 
the GOB has not yet publicly released details of the new 
regulatory framework, however, industry is tempering its 
reaction to the actual terms of the framework until after its 
announcement in Brasilia on August 31.  Ultimately, the pace 
of production the GOB subsequently sets for the pre-salt 
reserves could influence the IOC's ability to develop these 
fields more than the actual terms that govern how they do so. 
¶9. (C) Even once the announcement of the government's vision 
of a new regulatory framework is made next week, it will 
still be a government proposal that needs the approval of the 
Congress.  Given the highly politicized nature of 
Congressional debate as Brazil anticipates the coming 
election year, a bill as important as this one will not face 
an easy road to approval.  The final product will likely be 
substantially different than the details that have been 
leaked.  For example, press reports varied leading up to the 
announcement, from Minister Lobao indicating that the 
distribution of royalties to states and municipalities will 
be omitted from the August 31 proposal so that the issue does 
not hold up passage of the rest of the legislation, to other 
reports that the GOB, under pressure from oil producing 
states, will in fact include royalties in the new framework, 
in a formulation closer to the current scheme.  Such a 
decision which would almost certainly create disappointment 
and controversy among the non-oil producing states.  Sources 
at the Ministry of Mines and Energy confirm that it is still 
unclear how this issue will be handled vis-a-vis the August 
31 announcement.  While this element of the new regime is not 
one that has concerned industry thus far, it is clearly one 
of the biggest headaches for the government and likely to 
produce the toughest battles for the government.  The fact 
that this very issue already prompted the delay of the 
previously planned August 19 announcement, and government 
consultations with affected state and local leaders in the 
interim do not appear to have brought them any closer to a 
resolution, is likely just a harbinger of the difficulties 
that lie ahead for this part of the new regulatory regime. 
Post will continue to closely monitor and report on 
developments.  End Comment. 
 
¶10. (U) This cable has been coordinated with Embassy 
Brasilia. 
HEARNE