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R 201541Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1670
INFO RWANDA COLLECTIVE
CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUJUMBURA 000419 
 
 
NAIROBI PLEASE PASS TO AMBASSADOR SLUTZ. 
LONDON, PARIS PLEASE PASS TO AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/19/2019 
TAGS: KDEM ASEC PGOV PINS BY
SUBJECT: FNL: OUT OF THE BUSH, BUT BANDITRY BLOOMS 
 
REF: BUJUMBURA 400 
 
Classified By: CDA Charles Twining for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. SUMMARY. There is an overwhelming consensus among 
political and security observers in Burundi that the Forces 
Nationales de Liberation's (FNL) days of fighting in the bush 
are truly over.  Further, observers in Burundi find no 
evidence of an organized FNL splinter group existing that is 
ready or able to start a new political war.  While it is true 
that the FNL has factions, with some divisions becoming 
increasingly public, and while it is true that some, perhaps 
many, former FNL combatants are angry at a perceived FNL 
failure to fulfill demobilization promises, none of these 
former combatants have indicated a looming return to war. 
However, political and security experts do expect to see a 
rise in crime, particularly armed robbery, as former FNL 
combatants find themselves at loose ends with no jobs and no 
money, but with access to guns and grenades and a history of 
subsisting on extortion and robbery.  END SUMMARY. 
 
SPLINTERS EXIST, BUT ARE NOT SHARP 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) FNL spokesperson Jean-Bosco Havyarimana openly stated 
to PolOff on August 11 that there are former members of the 
FNL turning against the party.  He claimed that they are the 
2,600 FNL members denied participation in the Disarmament, 
Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) process by the 
government and the DDR facilitation group.  He also said that 
denying these members DDR benefits (payment and a transition 
kit of clothes and household goods) was a political strategy 
to divide the FNL, in the hopes that these disappointed 
former members would return to their homes and spread 
negative press about the FNL.  Havyarimana claimed the FNL is 
combating the situation through an informal information 
campaign that explains the FNL is not at fault and promises 
to seek redress for them.  When asked if these 2,600 have 
weapons and could pose a threat, Havyarimana insisted that 
they pose no danger, stating that during the war the FNL 
controlled weapons as an organization and did not issue them 
to individuals. 
 
¶3. (C) Numerous other sources have also informed PolOff of 
this cadre of disappointed people.  However, these sources 
interpret events differently than do Havyarimana and the FNL. 
 The FNL reportedly did some fast recruiting to inflate its 
numbers at the end of 2008 by promising DDR benefits to the 
new recruits.  The South African-led facilitation group saw 
through the ploy and pushed back; the FNL then dropped 2,600 
names under pressure to clean up their membership lists. 
These 2,600 likely received basic weapons training as new 
recruits, but otherwise spent little time with the FNL before 
the DDR process was in full swing.  Most observers agree that 
while this group is angry at the FNL, the consequences for 
the FNL will be lost votes in the 2010 elections and not 
violent conflict. 
 
¶4. (C) There is a significant split between FNL's present 
leadership and its former spokesperson Pasteur Habimana. 
Formerly the source of much popular support for the FNL in 
the bush, Habimana has been increasingly marginalized by the 
FNL; EmbOff heard that he is blamed for inflating FNL's ranks 
through those promised DDR benefits.  He received a GoB 
position as part of the DDR process, as second secretary to 
the Embassy of Burundi in New Delhi, but that embassy does 
not yet exist.  The distance between Habimana and his former 
comrades became public this past week when, on the 
anniversary of the 2004 Gatumba refugee camp massacre, FNL 
spokesperson Havyarimana publicly stated that Pasteur 
Habimana's past claim of FNL responsibility for the Gatumba 
massacre was inaccurate.  Habimana retorted on national radio 
that "I do not understand the intentions of the new FNL 
spokesperson in saying the declarations I made about Gatumba 
were my own.  At the time of the declaration, neither the 
President nor any other FNL leader said I lied." 
 
¶5. (C) Since his New Delhi post exists only on paper thus 
far, Habimana remains in Bujumbura, with no association with 
the FNL.  In a conversation with PolOff on August 14, Egide 
Nduwimana, a former military commander and the local security 
expert in BINUB's Office of Security said, "people say he is 
now a ruling party member."  We have also heard that Habimana 
is now an "intern" at the National Intelligence Services 
(SNR) and has become increasingly close to the ruling 
CNDD-FDD.  However, while this FNL-Habimana split is 
increasingly public and perhaps also increasingly 
acrimonious, Habimana is not known to have followers who 
would support a violent escalation to the dispute. 
 
BUSH DAYS DONE 
-------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Tanzanian Ambassador Francis Mndolwa and South African 
DCM Chris Botha are experienced Burundi political observers 
who have been deeply involved in the DDR process.  The South 
Africans have been the driving force behind DDR, which 
brought the FNL out of the bush in the first place, and the 
Tanzanians have also been intimately involved throughout the 
process, particularly as FNL has become a political party 
(though first they had to drop the "palipehutu" reference to 
their Hutu base from their name).  In separate conversations, 
Mndolwa and Botha stated unequivocally that the FNL is not 
going back in the bush.  BINUB's security expert Nduwimana 
explained why: 
 
-- The Burundian population is tired of this war (housing and 
feeding rebels and suffering violence such as rape and 
robbery). 
 
-- The flow of money and weaponry from outside Burundi has 
dried up to a trickle, enough to support banditry, but not a 
rebel movement. 
 
-- The international community is united in its investment in 
the peace process. 
 
-- No ideological basis or impetus exists anymore for the FNL 
to battle the government, as run by the ruling CNDD-FDD 
party.  Nduwimana stated, "The Hutus ARE in charge." 
 
-- The ruling party has intentionally and successfully 
weakened the FNL. 
 
CRIME TO CLIMB 
-------------- 
 
¶7. (C) As the DDR process has come to a close (reftel), 
observers have become increasingly concerned that former 
combatants will turn to armed robbery once their DDR money 
runs out.  Rwandan DCM Desire Nyaruhirira stated that the 
FNL's "head has been cut off," so they are not going back to 
the fight, but that former FNL combatants are likely to 
resort to crime, having the experience and the connections to 
easily form small, effective criminal gangs.  Botha and 
Nduwimana agreed to this sentiment, with Botha observing that 
the security threat will now be more "diffuse" - an issue of 
banditry targeted not at any particular group or person for 
ideological reasons, but based on opportunity and the 
victim's perceived wealth. 
 
¶8. COMMENT: Despite rumors persisting in US Government 
circles, expatriate and Burundian political and security 
experts in country see no indication the FNL or some splinter 
hard-line wing is going back to the bush.  However, under the 
FNL, these boys and men did learn how to use guns and 
grenades as well as how to set up ambushes and extort the 
local population.  These are not skill sets that easily 
translate into anything other than criminal pursuits and Post 
expects crime to rise as demobilized FNL run out of money. 
END COMMENT. 
 
Twining 
 
 
NOTE: MISSING PARA MARKING ON PARA'S 1 /8 AND SUBJECT TAGS