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C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTIAGO 000734 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2018 
TAGS: PREL PBTS PGOV CI BR CU PE
SUBJECT: CONCERTACION INSIDER REVEALS INTEREST IN 
CHILE-PERU BORDER SETTLEMENT, CUBAN GOALS, AND SERRA'S 
CHILE CONNECTION 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul E. Simons for reason 1.4 (b). 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  Concertacion insider and former government 
minister Enrique Correa reported that Chile's Foreign 
Minister would like to work quietly with Peru to resolve the 
maritime border dispute before the Garcia administration 
leaves office.  Cuba is keenly interested in increasing the 
ability of U.S. visitors to travel to the island, but not 
interested in joining the OAS, Correa said.  Correa predicted 
a Concertacion win in the second round of presidential 
elections and praised Mariano Fernandez as a more regionally 
engaged Foreign Minister than his predecessor.  Brazilian 
presidential candidate Jose Serra has close ties to the 
Concertacion which could bode well for Chile-Brazil relations 
should both Serra and Frei win their respective elections. 
End Summary. 
 
Chile Seeks to Resolve Border Dispute Behind the Scenes 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶2.  (C) During a July 28 lunch with the Ambassador, 
progressive politico Enrique Correa asserted that senior 
Chilean officials -- including Foreign Minister Mariano 
Fernandez -- are interested in conducting quiet negotiations 
with Peru to resolve the maritime border dispute separately 
from the Hague case.  Both Foreign Minister Fernandez and 
Concertacion leaders are concerned that the border issue 
could become inflamed if nationalist Ollanta Humala is 
elected president in 2011.  Correa indicated that Chilean 
leaders would be willing to make (unspecified) compromises 
about their border claims in order to resolve the issue well 
in advance of a possible Humala presidency. 
 
Cuba Wants More U.S. Visitors 
----------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) Correa reported on private conversations he held with 
Cuban leaders Carlos Lage and Felipe Perez-Roque before they 
were removed from their positions in March 2009.  According 
to Lage and Perez-Roque, Cuban leadership is very interested 
in strengthening bilateral relations with the U.S. and 
particularly in further broadening the ability of all U.S. 
citizens to visit Cuba (not just those of Cuban origin), 
which leaders see as an effective way to break down barriers 
between the two countries.  In contrast, the Cuban elite have 
little interest in rejoining the OAS.  Correa said he passed 
this information to OAS Secretary General Jose Miguel Insulza. 
 
Predictions of Frei Electoral Success 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) Turning to domestic politics, Correa predicted that 
Concertacion candidate Eduardo Frei will win "easily" in the 
second round of presidential voting.  Correa believes that 
virtually all of the supporters of leftist candidate Marco 
Enriquez-Ominami will support Frei in the second round, 
saying that these supporters are "fundamentally 
Concertacion."  The traditional Concertacion majority will 
re-emerge in the second round, he stated. 
 
¶5.  (C) Correa predicted problems for center-right candidate 
Sebastian Pinera, saying that he is likely to stumble between 
now and the election and suggesting that enthusiasm for his 
candidacy might wane, largely because of character issues. 
In contrast, Frei's reputation for rectitude, solidity, and 
honesty will serve him well. 
 
New Foreign Minister an Improvement 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) Correa believes that the change in Foreign Ministry 
leadership from Alejandro Foxley to Mariano Fernandez has 
been extremely positive for Chile.  Foxley had little 
interest in Chile's role in the region and never visited 
Argentina, for example.  In contrast, Fernandez is more 
engaged in regional issues and is committed to active 
diplomacy in the Western Hemisphere, particularly in 
Paraguay, Argentina, and Brazil.  Fernandez is also much 
closer to President Bachelet than Foxley is. 
 
Brazilian Presidential Candidate Has Ties to Chile 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
 
 
¶7.  (C) Brazilian presidential candidate Jose Serra has very 
close ties to the Concertacion, Correa said.  Serra lived in 
Chile from 1967 until 1973, has a Chilean wife, and worked 
directly for Fernando Flores, who served as Salvador 
Allende's Economic Minister.  In the aftermath of the 
September 11, 1973 coup d'etat, Serra was imprisoned in 
Chile's National Stadium along with thousands of others.  He 
reportedly talked his way out of the stadium the next day and 
immediately returned to Brazil.  Frei and Serra could help 
deepen the very promising Chilean-Brazilian bilateral 
relationship if both men are elected president of their 
respective countries. 
 
¶8.  (C) Comment:  Correa is a well-connected and 
well-respected kingmaker whose insights warrant attention. 
Reports of possible interest in a Chilean-Peruvian settlement 
are particularly surprising given that Chilean officials feel 
that their case is strong and is likely to prevail at the 
International Court of Justice.  If indeed Chileans are 
willing to make concessions in order to resolve the dispute 
more quickly, this suggests that they are quite uneasy about 
the possibility of a Humala presidency.  End Comment. 
SIMONS