VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMN #0434/01 2051340
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 241340Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9243
INFO RUCNMER/MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000434 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/BSC - MARY DASCHBACH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL UY
SUBJECT: URUGUAYAN ELECTIONS: PARTIES STRATEGIZE AS 
CAMPAIGN HEATS UP 
 
REF: MONTEVIDEO 411 
 
¶1. (U)  This telegram is sensitive but unclassified, and not 
for Internet distribution. 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶2. (U)  With the internal elections behind them, both the 
incumbent Frente Amplio (FA) and the opposition National 
Party (Blancos) have begun to devise the strategies that they 
hope will lead them to victory in the October elections.  The 
FA is playing up its traditional role as the leftist 
opposition to the historically monolithic party system, while 
working to leverage the popularity of incumbent President 
Tabare Vazquez.  In contrast, the rhetoric of the opposition 
is aimed directly at FA candidate Jose "Pepe" Mujica, as the 
Blancos work to raise doubts in the minds of Uruguayan voters 
over his tendencies toward inconsistency.  End Summary. 
 
The Frente Amplio: A Call for Both Change and Continuity 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶3. (U)  As a coalition of parties that has achieved steady 
gains against the traditional Colorado and National parties 
over the past several elections, the Frente Amplio now finds 
itself in unfamiliar territory: a presidential campaign in 
which they are the incumbent party.  Further complicating 
matters is the fact that popular President Tabare Vazquez is 
ineligible for a second term, with the FA's future now in the 
hands of former Tupamaro guerrilla Jose "Pepe" Mujica 
(reftel).  Correspondingly, the party faces a unique 
challenge: it must continue to appeal to the core voters that 
supported its prior campaigns to completely transform the 
political system, while stalwartly defending the status quo 
by promising continuity between Vazquez's policies and those 
of a Mujica administration. 
 
¶4. (U)  In order to achieve this objective, Mujica and his 
running mate, former Finance Minister Danilo Astori, have 
assumed diverging roles on the campaign trail, with both 
candidates on the offensive following a week of attacks by 
the Blancos.  Mujica has taken up the part of the traditional 
Frente Amplio militant, portraying the movement as an agent 
of change due to its roots in what the FA characterizes as 
the failure of the traditional two-party system.  Included in 
this message is an outcry against the "clientelism" of the 
Blancos - a thinly-veiled reference to allegations of 
corruption during Blanco candidate Luis Alberto Lacalle's 
1990-1995 term as president.  Mujica's speeches have also 
been punctuated with the rhetoric of militancy, as he has 
exhorted fellow party members to become "agitators" to draw 
in undecided voters.  Above all, Mujica's central theme is an 
appeal to the common man: as he told one friendly audience, 
"Lacalle belongs to the upper class; I'm like you."  As his 
wife, Senator Lucia Topolansky, recently divulged in a 
television interview, Mujica has even requested that he not 
receive a salary as President, asking that the money be 
donated instead. 
 
¶5. (U)  While Mujica's rhetoric reminds audiences of the 
historical mission of the FA, his running mate's emphasis has 
been on the economic success of the Vazquez administration, 
citing positive statistics of foreign investment and growth 
over the past five years.  Astori has also contrasted the 
boom under Vazquez with the failures of Lacalle, who 
"committed terrible errors of political economy" while 
president, according to Astori.  According to the media, 
Mujica hopes to exploit the credibility Astori gives the team 
on economic issues by giving Astori free rein in the economic 
policy realm. 
 
¶6. (U)  For his part, President Vazquez has been active in 
defending his legacy and in leveraging his considerable 
popularity (a 61% favorable rating, according to the pollster 
Equipos Mori) in support of the FA ticket.  At a recent 
dinner (also attended by Lacalle) honoring a former 
President, Vazquez argued that the country is "getting a 
little better every day" thanks to the policies of the FA 
government.  Vazquez also plans to campaign within the 
interior of the country - the traditional stronghold of the 
Blancos, and an area in which the president is likely to have 
more success than Mujica due to his more moderate image. 
 
 
The Blancos: Raising Fears About Mujica 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU)  Following their surprise "victory" over the FA in 
the internal elections (reftel), Lacalle and his running 
 
mate, Jorge Larranaga, have attempted to frame the election 
as a referendum on Jose Mujica, in an attempt to raise 
concerns in the minds of Uruguayan voters about the direction 
in which the former Tupamaro guerrilla would take the country 
both economically and politically.  As reported in reftel, 
Lacalle began the general campaign by insinuating that Mujica 
not only would endanger potential foreign investment in 
Uruguay, but also that his plans to reform the constitution 
could include a constituent assembly process like that 
endorsed by Hugo Chavez.  Lacalle has also sowed fears about 
Mujica's propensity to overspend, while promoting his own 
neoliberal credentials.  Last week, Lacalle insisted that, if 
elected president, he would cut spending "with a buzzsaw", 
prompting retorts from Vazquez administration officials that 
Lacalle would eliminate key social programs. 
 
¶9. (U)  Blanco politicians have also focused on the perceived 
division between Mujica and Astori, with Blanco Senator 
Francisco Gallinal telling one newspaper that the Vice 
Presidential candidate's ego was "wounded and bleeding" 
following his second-place finish.  Although Astori appeared 
more dutiful than enthusiastic when accepting the Vice 
Presidential nomination, he has campaigned with increased 
enthusiasm in recent days, and has fended off these attempts 
to divide him from Mujica by emphasizing the ideological 
unity of the ticket. 
 
¶10. (SBU)  While the Blancos took the offensive in the first 
few days following the internal elections, Lacalle and 
Larranaga have chosen not to respond to the FA's most recent 
comments, claiming that they are more comfortable engaging in 
debate over issues rather than in personal attacks.  Another 
possible explanation for this silence is that the Blancos are 
distracted by internal housekeeping, with Lacalle and 
Larranaga working to consolidate the lists of candidates for 
Senate within their respective party factions. 
 
The Colorados: Sports Hero for VP 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU)  Pedro Bordaberry, the once-mighty but now 
cellar-dwelling Colorado Party's candidate for president, has 
remained relatively silent during much of the recent 
politicking, recently declaring that he would avoid alliances 
with either the FA or the Blancos at this stage of the 
campaign. However, in the same announcement, he expressed 
misgivings similar to those of Lacalle concerning the 
possibility of a constituent assembly in a Mujica 
administration, indicating that his sympathies hew closer to 
the Blanco ticket than to the FA. 
 
¶12. (U)  Bordaberry announced Hugo de Leon, a former soccer 
star, as his running mate July 16.  De Leon played for the 
Uruguayan national team from 1979 to 1990, and won five 
league titles as a player and coach for the Montevideo team 
Nacional.  Bordaberry's choice of de Leon brought some flak 
from Mujica and Astori, who criticized his lack of experience. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Comment:  Mujica and Astori's energetic campaigning 
indicates that they have overcome the initial shock of the 
Blancos' "victory" in the internal elections and the 
headstart gained by the Lacalle/Larranaga ticket. However, 
the FA is still lagging behind, with July 12 polling giving 
the party 42% of likely voters compared to 46% for the 
Blancos and Colorados combined - a loss of two percentage 
points for the FA since June 28.  End Comment. 
 
Schandlbauer