VZCZCXRO7088
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #0896/01 1951702
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 141702Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2755
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHLMC/MCC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000896 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL AND INR/AA 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS PINR KDEM ECON SG
SUBJECT: Senegal's Casamance-Trials and Tribulations 
 
DAKAR 00000896  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The troubled Casamance region of Southern Senegal 
is facing yet another crisis following the dissolution of Air 
Senegal International.  Already cut off from the rest of the country 
by the Gambia, local tour operators are extremely worried that 
without regular flights the upcoming tourist season will be 
cancelled, leaving many unemployed.  Meanwhile, acts of banditry by 
rebels associated with the Mouvement des Forces Democratiques de la 
Casamance (MFDC) have seen a recent spike, although the military has 
bolstered its presence in response.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) According to Tehe Faye, representative of the Ministry of 
Tourism in Ziguinchor, since Air Senegal stopped working there has 
been a 25 percent drop in hotel occupancy rate in Ziguinchor and in 
the tourist zone of Cap Skirring only three hotels are open and none 
of them have any guests, "We're preparing for next season, but 
frankly we have no idea how that's going to pan out.  We are looking 
to work with tour operators so that they fly their charter planes 
directly to Ziguinchor or to Cap Skirring itself."  Faye noted Club 
Med is the key holiday resort in the area and that they are planning 
to open late this upcoming season, 'If Club Med leaves, we are in 
deep trouble.  They employ over 200 people from the local economy. 
So far, there is no indication that they will leave, but you never 
know."  Faye went on to say that Minister Karim Wade, whose 
portfolio includes Civil Aviation, had been to visit and that he had 
promised that a new airline will be up and running by October. 
Faye's view mirrored that of Pascal Ehemba who is the owner of 
Ziguinchor's best hotel and the President of the Chamber of 
Commerce, "This area needs much more investment.  Clearly the one 
boat (from Dakar) is not enough and we need more flights. 
Additionally, I am trying to set up a credit fund to allow people 
access to cheap credit." 
 
Is the MFDC Back? 
----------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Both Faye and Ehemba are worried about a recent spike in 
banditry in the region, saying that it compounds the problems that 
the region is facing especially in term of presenting the area as a 
safe place for tourism.  Faye however noted, "While this is bad for 
our image, I have been told by some MFDC leaders that the rise in 
these attacks is less about economics and more about cracks within 
the movement itself whereby some dissidents are trying to establish 
themselves.  But if we go another year without tourism, who knows 
what may happen."  Faye acknowledged that the arrival of a new Mayor 
from the ruling Democratic Party of Senegal (PDS) may bolster 
investment in the area and offset some of the effects of the 
downturn in tourism as the government opens up the state coffers 
which it had kept tightly shut under the previous administration of 
Socialist Mayor Robert Sagna. 
 
¶4. (SBU) This view was confirmed by Mamadou Konte, who is Mayor 
Abdoulaye Balde's right hand in Ziguinchor, "We have major plans 
both to rehabilitate the city's roads and its sewage and water 
systems.  Balde (who is also the Secretary-General of the 
Presidency) will be here every weekend to oversee the projects and 
meet with people."  Konte, however, did aver that unsafe roads are 
bad in terms of the upcoming planting season, "If the roads are not 
safe, then truckers carrying seeds and fertilizers will refuse to 
come.  Last year we produced 104,000 tons of cereal and had 1800 mm 
of rainfall, so we have great hope for a repeat performance this 
year.  In my view, we not only need to talk to the rebels, but we 
need to establish enterprises in their zones so that they have jobs 
to go to when they put down their arms.  Without jobs, talking is 
just that." 
 
¶5. (SBU) "[President Abdoulaye] Wade is not interested in talking or 
resolving our problems.  In his view, the fighters should just stop 
fighting and talk.  He has not only alienated The Gambia and 
Guinea-Bissau, but he mistakenly thinks that enough money thrown at 
the problem will make it go away," said Abba Diatta, an old school, 
dyed-in-the-wool Socialist politician who was former Mayor Sagna's 
right hand for 26 years.  Diatta was considerably more downbeat than 
other local leaders, saying that Wade has a history of reneging when 
it comes to the Casamance, "When Wade was a Minister in [former 
President Abdou] Diouf's government he promised Abbe Diamacounde's 
(The founder of the MFDC) brother that he would grant autonomy if he 
ever got elected President.  When he came to power, he totally 
reversed his position.  If there is no resolution to the conflict 
soon, I expect that the level of violence will pick up again.  The 
only reason it hasn't is because local groups comprised of elders, 
women, and youth have been constantly engaged to persuade the MFDC 
and its various factions to end the violence." 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) As usual, the Casamance finds itself at a crossroads. 
While over the past few months there has been an increase in 
 
DAKAR 00000896  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
banditry by MFDC-related groups, a bolstered military presence seems 
to have stemmed the tide for now.  The tourism situation is dire and 
until a new airline reconnects Ziguinchor to the rest of the 
country, the region will continue to experience economic troubles 
and rising unemployment.  However, these troubles may be offset by 
money coming in the form of new investments by Mayor Balde, who is 
eager to prove to both the people of the Casamance and to the 
President that the PDS can deliver on its promises and improve the 
lives of people.  Another factor to watch will be the upcoming 
harvest.  If the rains are good and the harvest plentiful, then the 
government will breathe a considerable sigh of relief.  However, 
should the opposite be the case, then the region will bear watching 
as a poor harvest, a bad economy, and an unengaged government may be 
the spark for renewed conflict. 
Smith