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RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 3529
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RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 4299

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000308 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS 
TAGS: PGOV OAS EC
SUBJECT: NOT SO CALM AFTER THE STORM - ELECTION 
DIFFICULTIES APPEAR 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Heather Hodges for reason 1.4 (D) 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Contrary to initial reports that Ecuador's 
April 26 election went smoothly, cases of violence and fraud 
in a few provinces are coming to light in the days following 
the elections.  Although these incidents are unlikely to 
alter the outcome in the Presidential race, general 
discontent with the National Electoral Council's inability to 
provide official election results within their projected 
timeframe continues to grow.  Four days after the polls have 
closed, only 50% of the votes have been counted for National 
Assembly seats and international observation missions are 
going home with no clear verdict on this election process. 
End Summary. 
 
ELECTION SUSPENDED DUE TO VIOLENCE 
 
¶2. (SBU) The province of Manab, which is known for 
irregularities in past elections, was once again a hot spot 
for election-day trouble.  In the city of Jipijapa, 15 
political party observation delegates who suspected fraud by 
Correa's PAIS party began to tear and burn ballots in one 
polling station the evening of April 26. This triggered a 
series of similar acts in nearby precincts which resulted in 
reported destruction of 100 ballot boxes.  Numerous cases of 
ballots destroyed by political party sympathizers were 
reported in other precincts in Manabi, as well as Guayas, 
Esmeraldas, Zamora Chinchipe, and Loja provinces.  The 
National Electoral Council has resolved to have a re-vote on 
May 3 for five cities in four provinces with a total of 462 
voting stations; other results are being appealed by the 
parties. 
 
SUSPICIONS OF FRAUD MOSTLY UNFOUNDED 
 
¶3. (C) In the city of Esmeraldas, candidates and their 
supporters have been in the streets since April 27, 
protesting what they charge was a fraudulent election. 
Multiple parties have been chanting "Electoral Fraud" outside 
of the Esmeraldas National Electoral Council branch and the 
PAIS mayoral candidate is demanding a recount of 133 ballot 
boxes.  A police officer and a woman were reported injured. 
Street protests have also been reported in the provinces of 
Esmeraldas, Guayas, Santo Domingo, Los Rios, Loja and Santa 
Elena. 
 
¶4. (C) The most vocal critic of the elections has been 
presidential runner-up and former president Lucio Gutirrez 
who, according to the latest results from the National 
Electoral Council, only received 28% of the votes compared to 
Correa's 52%.  Days following the election, Gutirrez made a 
public pledge to galvanize the "Ecuadorian people in the 
resistance" against Correa and "not allow them to steal the 
election in the second round."  His brother, Gilmar 
Gutirrez, in phone conversation with Embassy officials, 
stated that they have attempted to present their complaints 
formally with the National Electoral Council, but they were 
not accepted.  He emphasized what he viewed to be the Council 
taking their orders directly from the government.  In spite 
of the claims by Gutierrez and other candidates, 
international observation teams have indicated that there 
were no obvious incidents of fraud, although acknowledging 
the confusion of the election could have allowed for it. 
 
DISCONCERTING DELAY IN OFFICIAL RESULTS 
 
¶5. (SBU) Four days after the polls closed, political 
candidates, civil society, citizens, and external observers 
are wondering: what is taking the National Electoral Council 
so long to announce results?  According to the National 
Electoral Council, the intermediate counting centers were 
supposed to have completed their tasks the night of April 28, 
but official results are only partial so far.  As of 8am on 
April 30, only three-quarter of President/Vice-President 
ballots had been counted (the first of the six ballots to be 
registered) and an average of 50% for national and provincial 
assembly races (although as little as 28% were counted in the 
province of Esmeraldas).  This is in stark contrast with the 
National Electoral Council's projection to have 60% of all 
votes for President counted by the evening of the elections. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Speculation on why the National Electoral Council 
was unable to accomplish their established deadlines include: 
the complexity of the ballots which delayed the ballot count 
at the polling station level; inexperienced poll workers; 
insufficient number of staff to execute the election,s 
 
multifaceted logistics; and the exceptionally high number of 
invalid tally sheets reported (25-30%) compared to the 
traditional 1% of past elections.  This latter figure, which 
was reported in El Comercio on April 30, is noteworthy since 
it signifies that at least a quarter of all votes nationwide 
will not be included in the official results until the 
"actas" are reviewed by the 24 provincial counting centers. 
 
THE JURY IS STILL OUT 
 
¶7. (SBU) In its initial report released on Monday, the OAS 
mission acknowledged the complexity of the April 26 elections 
and the limited time period the newly established National 
Electoral Council had to execute the elections.  The report 
also highlighted the general "peaceful and respectful 
environment" of election day.  However, Benamor made it clear 
in a presentation on Tuesday that it was too early to make a 
complete assessment of these elections.  Based on qualitative 
and quick count surveys completed by 90 OAS observers in 23 
provinces, the vote count process was the most disorganized 
aspect.  Almost none of the polling station teams counted the 
ballots according to regulation, and many reported incidents 
of miscounting.  The EU observation mission cited as a 
negative element the "dominant presence" of Rafael Correa 
prior to and during election day on the various media 
outlets, including those of the government. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶8. (C) It is clear that the phase of appeals and claims 
against the National Electoral Council is just beginning. 
Amidst surmounting complaints, the newly established National 
Electoral Council appears to have fallen short of 
expectations.  The various election troubles, and assertion 
of fraud, are not unusual for Ecuador.  While an 
embarrassment for Correa's government, we do not expect the 
shortcomings of the election process to keep Correa off the 
course of his political agenda. 
HODGES