VZCZCXRO3367
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSK #0109/01 0990812
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 090812Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0201
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHSK/AMEMBASSY MINSK 0204

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000109 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - APRIL 3, 2009 
 
MINSK 00000109  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled by 
Embassy Minsk. 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
- Prosecutors Extend Investigation against Volkovysk Activists 
(para. 2) 
- Vitebsk Opposition Activists Fined (para. 3) 
- Polish Activists Fined in Absentia (para. 4) 
- GOB Cuts Five Russian TV Channels (para. 5) 
 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
- Minsk Still Seeking Russian Loan (para. 6) 
- Banks Obliged to Reduce Interest on Hard Currency Deposits 
(para. 7) 
 
Foreign Trade 
------------- 
 
- 2009 Natural Gas Price, Payment Pattern Unclear (para. 8) 
- Spanish FM Meets with Lukashenka (para. 9) 
- Exports of Potassium Fertilizers Fall Sharply (para. 10) 
 
Quote of the Week (para. 11) 
---------------------------- 
 
------------- 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
¶2.  Prosecutors Extend Investigation against Volkovysk Activists 
 
Prosecutors extended March 27 for one month investigations into 
criminal cases against three Volkovysk activists Nikolay 
Avtukhovich, Yuriy Leonov and Vladimir Osipenko.  According to 
their relatives, the detainees had been rarely interrogated or 
called up for any other investigatory procedures.  They also 
expressed serious concerns regarding the possibility of court 
hearings to be held behind closed doors as the police had been 
rigidly restricting their access to the detainees and also the 
official information about their cases. 
 
¶3.  Vitebsk Opposition Activists Fined 
 
A Vitebsk district court fined March 27 members of the 
Conservative Christian Party Sergey Kovalenko $250 and Igor 
Bazarov and Valeriy Aleksandrov $25 each for holding an 
unsanctioned rally.  The three activists staged March 25 a 
demonstration in downtown Vitebsk and unfolded banned opposition 
flags to mark the 91st anniversary of the Belarus' declaration 
of independence. 
 
¶4.  Polish Activists Fined in Absentia 
 
On March 27, Andrzej Poczobut, Igor Bantser and Mechislav 
Yaskevich, members of the unregistered Union of Poles, filed 
appeals to court to challenge their fines.  A Grodno district 
court notified Bantser and Yaskevich by mail that they were 
fined in absentia $185 each in March 2009 for allegedly 
participating in an unsanctioned demonstration on January 17, 
¶2009.  Poczobut was fined $185 on the same charges on March 17, 
¶2009.  The Union members linked the fines with their active 
advocacy of Polish minority rights in Belarus. 
 
¶5.  GOB Cuts Five Russian TV Channels 
 
GOB cut cable broadcasting April 1 across Belarus of five 
popular Russian TV channels that frequently aired critical and 
satirical programs about President Lukashenka.  An aide to the 
Information Minister dismissed any "political grounds" behind 
the ban, saying that the cable providers were "free" to base 
their decisions on economic expediency.  The providers referred 
to a recently enforced media law mandating foreign TV channels 
to obtain permits for broadcasts in Belarus, and the Russian 
channels reportedly failed to comply with the requirement. 
 
---------------- 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
¶6.  Minsk Denied Russia's RUB 100 Billion Loan, Requests Another 
One 
 
According to media reports receiving interest here, Belarus is 
not likely to receive a 100 billion Russian ruble (RUB) loan 
from Russia in the near future.  The GOB wanted the loan to help 
smooth the transfer to payments in RUB for mutual trade.  An 
anonymous source in Russia's Finance Ministry told Prime-TASS 
 
MINSK 00000109  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
news agency that the denial did not stop the GOB from asking USD 
2 billion loan from Russian banks against the government 
guarantees.  According to the source, the talks on this loan are 
currently underway.  Interestingly, Russian President Medvedev's 
economic assistant Arkadiy Dvorkovich opined in an interview to 
Financial Times on the same day that Russia will not assist its 
neighbors for political reasons. 
 
¶7.  Banks Obliged to Reduce Interests on Hard Currency Deposits 
 
Chairman of the Association of Belarusian banks Feliks 
Chernyavskiy told the round-table discussion on banking issues 
March 30 that starting on April 1 Belarusian banks will 
implement the instructions of the National Bank and reduce the 
maximum interest on hard currency deposits to 10 percent.   He 
also opined that banks will have to further reduce interest to 8 
percent.  The new National Banks' policy is aimed at avoiding 
dollarization of the economy.  To the same end, banks have also 
been obliged to keep interests on Belarusian ruble (BYR) 
deposits up to 20 percent. 
 
------------- 
Foreign Trade 
------------- 
 
¶8.  2009 Natural Gas Price, Payment Pattern Unclear 
 
According to the media, Russian officials provide conflicting 
comments on the pattern of payment for Belarus-bound natural 
gas.  Economic Counselor of the Russian Embassy in Minsk Andrei 
Kuznetsov told Prime-TASS news agency March 26 that, according 
to the agreement that Medvedev and Lukashenka reached on March 
19, Belarus will make monthly payments based on the estimated 
average yearly price and the sides will settle all outstanding 
payments at the end of the year.  Gazprom's Deputy Chairman 
Andrey Kruglov told the news conference in Minsk March 27 that 
he has no information "on any agreements or cleared decisions". 
Another Deputy Chairman Valery Golubev said in an interview to 
"Gazprom" magazine on April 1 that the price Belarus paid for 
Russian gas in January through March was approximately USD 210 
per one thousand cubic meters (tcm).  General Director of 
natural gas transportation company Beltransgaz Vladimir Mayorov 
reminded March 27 that, according to the GOB estimates, the 
average yearly price should not exceed $148 per tcm. 
 
¶9.  Spanish FM Meets with Lukashenka 
 
Lukashenka met with the visiting Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel 
Moratinos March 30.  Although the EU is already Belarus' second 
largest trade partner, Lukashenka stressed he wants more trade 
with the EU.  Belarusian-Spanish trade ($219 million) in 2008 
was negligible with little prospects to grow.  Obviously, 
Lukashenka wants more exports to the EU as about 20 EU-imposed 
restrictions and limitations in trade with Belarus are still in 
place.  The meeting was important to him in view of Spain's next 
year EU chairmanship.  The Foreign Minister's comment was rather 
supportive.  "It is remarkable that you have such good relations 
with Russia.  Undoubtedly, chances to have same good relations 
with the EU are high".  Moratinos also condemned sanctions on 
Belarus and said they should be lifted immediately. 
 
¶10.  Exports of Potassium Fertilizers Fall Sharply 
 
An anonymous source in the GOB told the Prime-TASS news agency 
March 31 that Belarusian manufacturer of potassium fertilizers 
Belaruskaliy exported 33,000 tons of fertilizers in March, down 
from 120,000 tons in January and 75,000 tons in February. 
Belaruskaliy, one of the country's main exporters, saw its 
contracts with major consumers (China and India) expire last 
December and this March.  It exported the total of 6.5 million 
tons last year and the forecast for this year is 5-5.5 million 
tons. 
 
----------------- 
Quote of the Week 
----------------- 
 
¶11.  During a meeting with the Governor of Russia's Nizhnyy 
Novgorod region Valeriy Shantsev March 31, Lukashenka sounded 
bewildered over Russia's intent to withdraw its proposals for 
G-20 summit. "I don't understand why Russia does that. Americans 
would like to lobby the former model saying: 'Let's not abandon 
the market economy'. So, in fact Americans want to stick to the 
same cheating at play that led to the crisis". 
MOORE