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PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKG #0221/01 0792028
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 202028Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7421
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 0558
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0552
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY 2357
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM J7 MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000221 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT PASS TO CENTRAL AMERICAN CARIBBEAN BASIN COLLECTIVE 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CAR (ACADIEUX, WSMITH, VDEPIRRO) INR/IAA (GBOHIGIAN) 
TREASURY FOR IA/WH (ERIN NEPHEW) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR ASEC SNAR KCOR CARICOM IBRD
IDB, CDB, JM, XL 
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: PRIME MINISTER BRUCE GOLDING'S RULING 
LABOUR PARTY (JLP) CANDIDATE LIKELY TO WIN WEST PORTLAND 
BY-ELECTION; IF NOT, SERIOUS IMPLICATIONS 
 
REF: A. KINGSTON 156 (272047Z FEB 09) 
     ¶B. 08 KINGSTON 1034 (091429Z DEC 08) 
     ¶C. 08 KINGSTON 494 (301353Z MAY 08) 
     ¶D. 08 KINGSTON 409 (091742Z MAY 08) 
     ¶E. 08 KINGSTON 398 (071203Z MAY 08) 
     ¶F. 08 KINGSTON 364 (291558Z APR 08) 
     ¶G. 08 KINGSTON 310 (141908Z APR 08) 
     ¶H. 07 KINGSTON 1336 (042044Z SEP 07) 
     ¶I. 08 KINGSTON 837 (222015Z SEP 08) 
 
Classified By: CDA JAMES T. HEG, Reasons 1.5 (B) AND (D) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.(C)Prime Minister (PM) Bruce Golding's ruling Jamaica 
Labour Party (JLP) appears likely to win a key by-election 
in the West Portland district on March 23, thus retaining 
its narrow 31-28 majority in Parliament.  If it were to 
lose, Golding would come under immense pressure.  While 
national elections are not constitutionally required until 
September, 2012, and he would prefer not to risk a snap 
national election until economic recovery is at last in 
sight, whether the JLP could then cling to power without 
losing any further seats in three other anticipated 
by-elections appears doubtful.  End Summary. 
 
A Key Precedental Ruling 
------------------------ 
 
2.(C)  Per reftel (A), in keeping with an Appellate Court 
ruling of February 27, a by-election to be held March 23 in 
the district of West Portland finally will determine the 
Member of Parliament (MP) to represent the constituency. 
Until recently, the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP)'s Daryl Vaz, 
who captured the seat by a 7.3 percent margin in the 
September, 2007 national election (reftel H), but 
subsequently was disqualified as an MP because of having 
held allegiance to a foreign power at the time of his 
nomination (reftels A-G), was universally favored to once 
again trounce the People's National Party (PNP) candidate 
Abe Dabdoub.  Indeed, an internal poll conducted for the 
PNP showed Vaz leading by an unprecedented 29 points. 
Sensing an inevitable defeat, on March 1 the PNP's 
charismatic populist President and Leader of the Opposition 
Portia Simpson Miller (PSM) announced that, instead of 
Dabdoub, Kenneth D. Rowe would contest the seat for the 
PNP.  Rowe's selection, and strong support from party 
leaders on the campaign trail over the last three weeks, 
have given the PNP an outside chance to recapture West 
Portland.  For a number of historical reasons, this is 
ironic. 
 
Background: West Portland 
------------------------- 
 
3.(SBU)  West Portland was among the 32 constituencies 
established in the Constitution granted to Jamaica by the 
UK in 1944.  Of the 37 candidates who contested the 14 
general elections between 1944 and 2007, only five have 
done so successfully -- three JLP (including Vaz), and two 
PNP; the JLP has won nine times, to the PNP's five times. 
Ironically, in 2002 Kenneth Rowe nearly captured the seat 
running as a JLP candidate, losing to the PNP's Errol Ennis 
by only 281 votes.  For the 2007 national election (reftel 
H), the JLP leadership decided to replace Rowe with Vaz as 
the party s candidate; Rowe then switched allegiance to the 
PNP.  He now squares off against the man who replaced him 
as the JLP candidate in 2007.  West Portland has seen 
lengthy periods of domination by both parties: the JLP 
1944-1989, and the PNP 1989-2007.  Perhaps ominously for 
Rowe, historically the electorate has not given favorable 
treatment to PNP candidates having previously switched 
allegiance from the JLP: in 1955, 1972, and 2007 PNP 
candidates lost in part because they were perceived as 
"turncoats."  Vaz publicly has denounced Rowe as a 
"redundant Labourite." 
 
Vaz Still Has the Inside Track 
 
 
------------------------------ 
 
4.(C)  In the course of a recent private meeting with 
Chargi, senior PNP MP and former Minister of National 
Security Dr. Peter Phillips, who unsuccessfully challenged 
PSM for the party presidency last year (reftel I), opined 
that Vaz very likely would recapture the West Portland 
seat, a prediction repeated by other PNP grass-roots 
activists in private discussions with PolOff.  Phillips 
said that, given Vaz's popularity and the JLP government's 
recent road and construction projects in the constituency, 
the PNP's only real advantage was pervasive public 
frustration with the country's high unemployment, 
inflation, negative growth, and rampant gang-related crime; 
at least in West Portland, such frustrations probably would 
not overcome Vaz's popularity.  Although Phillips was wrong 
in predicting his own victory during his unsuccessful PNP 
leadership challenge last fall (reftel I), his analysis of 
the West Portland contest was supported by comments by key 
Jamaican private sector leaders at a March 18 lunch hosted 
by CDA (septel). 
 
Three Conceivable Outcomes: the Implications 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
5.(C)  In post's estimation, the West Portland by-election 
now appears to have three conceivable outcomes.  In order 
of likelihood, they are: 
 
(A) Vaz by a close margin:  In post's estimate, Vaz is 
likely to win by roughly five percentage points.  He would 
regain the West Portland seat, thus preserving the narrow 
32-28 parliamentary majority enjoyed by PM Golding's JLP 
government.  However, a close margin of victory would raise 
doubts about the JLP's retention of seats in three other 
districts in which similar by-elections are anticipated in 
coming months: North East St. Ann (Shahine Robinson); North 
East St. Catherine (Gregory Mair); and North West Clarendon 
(Michael Stern)(reftel A). 
 
(B) Vaz by a landslide: Vaz enjoys strong popular support, 
and has maintained publicly that he will be disappointed if 
he does not win by a wide margin.  This outcome would put 
the JLP in a stronger position in the run-up to the other 
anticipated by-elections: barring unforeseen developments, 
Robinson would almost certainly win, and Mair and Stern 
would be strengthened. 
 
(C) Rowe in an upset: If Rowe were to pull off an upset 
victory, it would cut the JLP government's parliamentary 
majority to a razor-thin 31-29 and shake the party to its 
very foundations.  PM Golding would come under immense 
pressure.  While national elections are not 
constitutionally required until September, 2012, and 
Golding would prefer not to risk a snap national election 
until economic recovery is at last in sight, whether the 
JLP could cling to power without losing any other seats is 
highly doubtful. 
HEG