VZCZCXRO5313
OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0326/01 0691440
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 101440Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3204
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000326 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/C 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2019 
TAGS: ASEC PREL PGOV PPKO SOCI AU SU
SUBJECT: THE EXPULSION OF NGOS WAS THE "MINIMUM WE COULD 
DO" SAYS NCP POLCHIEF 
 
REF: A. KHARTOUM 311 
     ¶B. KHARTOUM 308 
     ¶C. KHARTOUM 306 
     ¶D. KHARTOUM 15 
 
Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: NCP political chief Mandour al-Mahdi said 
that Western fears of a worsening humanitarian crisis in 
Darfur following the expulsion of NGOs are greatly 
exaggerated as Sudanese organizations are ready, willing and 
able to step in. The NGOs in question had been preventing the 
voluntary return of internally displaced persons back home. 
Al-Mahdi said that the expulsions were "an absolute minimum" 
of what the regime could have done and that Sudan still wants 
dialogue with the U.S. and the West. He signaled possible 
regime flexibility in allowing some of the NGOs to return to 
the "three areas" (Abyei, Blue Nile, and Southern Kordofan) 
for a limited time as part of the NCP's ongoing dialogue with 
the SPLM and reiterated the regime's intentions to protect 
Western diplomatic premises and personnel. End Summary. 
 
SUDAN "OWNS" ANY FUTURE DETERIORATION 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) On 10 March, CDA Fernandez met with NCP Political 
Chief Mandour Al-Mahdi to discuss the GoS expulsion of 13 
INGOs from Northern Sudan and ask him about the GoS' plan of 
action moving forward (refs A-C).  CDA explained to Al-Mahdi 
that the USG had been low-key in responding to the ICC 
announcement and was reviewing its Sudan policy, considering 
next steps but we have now been stymied due to the 
provocative and unfortunate GoS reaction of kicking out 
numerous humanitarian aid groups in response to the warrant. 
He noted that NGOs had not only been expelled, they had been 
abused and robbed by the Sudanese Government. Personal 
property, NGO property, and USG property used by NGOs had 
been looted. President Bashir seems to have focused on the 
U.S. (reftels) as the main culprit, even though we are not 
ICC members and have nothing to do with the court. Sudan now 
"owned" the humanitarian crisis in Darfur and if there is 
starvation, or disease outbreaks, or mass movements of 
desperate populations it will be because the GOS has 
destroyed the existing humanitarian framework in Darfur 
before anything was in place to replace it. 
 
¶3. (C) Mandour, a pragmatic NCP hard-liner, responded that 
there are still 170 NGOs working in Sudan, and stuck to the 
regime line that the NGOs that were expelled had exceeded 
their humanitarian mandate and aided in assisting the ICC to 
make its case against Bashir.  "We chose the minimum we could 
do" by choosing to expel these NGOs, said Al-Mahdi.  He 
claimed that in the process of expelling NGOs, American NGOs 
were not specifically targeted and made the point that many 
American NGOs remain operative in Darfur and the Three Areas. 
Mandour said that the ICC decision was "tantamount to a 
declaration of war against Sudan," and aimed at destabilizing 
the country and removing the regime from power. Even though 
the U.S. was not an ICC member, it was a major factor in the 
ICC decision. The P-3 were the key element in making it 
happen and "our analysis is that this could not have taken 
place without your tacit approval." The fact that you refused 
to listen to the voice of the African Union, Arab League, 
OIC, and Non-Aligned, all of whom are with us, shows your 
complicity. 
 
EXPULSIONS A "MINIMUM RESPONSE" 
------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Al-Mahdi said that even through the expulsions were a 
"minimum," Sudanese are the ones feeling provoked and they 
have shown remarkable self-restraint so far. "We are ready to 
take further steps if need be," against more NGOs and against 
embassies. President Bashir's public criticism of the US were 
valid and accurate but "we will make sure that the embassy 
and its staff are not harmed in any way." He that despite the 
steps taken, "we are still ready for dialogue, even with the 
West, even with the French who have been the most extreme" of 
the P-3.  Al-Mahdi said that the US offer of welcoming a 
visit by Deng Alor and Mustafa Othman Ismail in return for a 
reversal or freezing of the NGO expulsions "had not been much 
of an offer because we knew you were ready to do this 
already, before the expulsion decision was made, the SPLM 
 
KHARTOUM 00000326  002 OF 003 
 
 
told us as much." 
 
¶5. (C) Al-Mahdi remarked that the NGOs expelled were playing 
a negative role in Darfur IDP camps, preventing the voluntary 
return of IDPs to their homes. The NGOs were politicized and 
used "carrots and sticks" to keep IDPs in the camps. The 
regime had noticed that 45,000 people had returned 
spontaneously to the Muhajeria area in February 2009, once 
JEM was driven out, because NGOs had been temporarily 
evacuated and were not politicizing people, encouraging the 
rebels and fabricating false information about regime crimes 
such as mass rapes. Mandour said that now that the NGOs are 
gone, the environment in the IDP camps has improved 
remarkably. Kalma Camp, where GOS officials feared to tread 
and which was "rebel territory" is now eager to have regime 
officials come and visit. They interact normally and respond 
to their needs. What seems to be the case was that NGOs were 
hindering the normal reintegration of IDPs back into normal 
life and Sudan's natural social fabric. 
 
FEARS OF A GAP ARE EXAGGERATED 
------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (C) Mandour said that the regime's "rapid assessment" of 
the impact of the expulsions in Darfur shows that the 
potential gap in all affected sectors - health, water and 
sanitation, and the distribution of food and Non-Food Items 
(NFI), could be addressed by existing NGOs (that partner with 
WFP), new and existing Sudanese NGOs, and the Sudanese 
Government.  The NGOs were not donors, they were 
distributors, and anyone can do that. According to Al-Mahdi, 
the assessment shows that the amount of food that has been 
distributed to IDPs in Darfur is enough to last for two 
months.  Al-Mahdi also said that 75 percent of water services 
in the field are currently "covered."  He explained that the 
most important NFI item - tents - are only needed if more 
people are displaced and/or when the rains begin, which won't 
happen in Darfur for months. So the UN and NGOs are grossly 
exaggerating the fallout of the expulsions.   He claimed that 
plenty of NFIs are available at WFP and pointed out that it 
is currently the dry season. Al-Mahdi admitted that the 
health sector in Darfur was most-affected by the NGO 
expulsion, but stated that there is no shortage of doctors in 
Sudan (in fact, he claimed they cannot find enough jobs for 
the number of doctors in Sudan) and that at the Ministry of 
Health sent 100 Sudanese doctors to Darfur in the last week 
to address the potential health crisis caused by foreign 
health workers leaving.  At the same time, claimed Al-Mahdi, 
most of the health services in the IDP camps are provided by 
Sudanese citizens any and as a result, are not affected by 
the NGO expulsion.  Al-Mahdi said that the upcoming joint 
UN-HAC assessment of the effect of the NGO expulsion, due to 
commence tomorrow, should provide more answers. Al-Mahdi went 
on to say that it doesn't expect the USG to "cease its 
support" for WFP. CDA told Al-Mahdi that the regime is 
suggesting a form of blackmail, forcing the USG to choose 
between punishing the innocent people of Darfur or the guilty 
GoS regime.  "We do not want to punish the innocent for the 
guilty," CDA continued. 
 
¶7. (C) CDA made the point that the expulsion of NGOs that 
provided critical peace-building and reconciliation programs 
in the Three Areas would have a direct impact on support to 
CPA implementation.  Al-Mahdi admitted that there had been 
complaints from both local NCP and SPLM officials on the 
expulsion's effect in the Three Areas and the authorities 
were looking into it. He said that there may be some room for 
flexibility on allowing some of the NGOs that worked in the 
Three Areas to return for a limited time. Later in the day, 
SPLM Deputy SG Yasser Arman told CDA that the joint committee 
of the two parties continues to focus on the NGO issue in all 
its aspects. He noted that "there have been a lot of 
meetings, but little progress" in bridging the upset created 
by the NCP's unilateral actions against NGOs in the past few 
days. 
 
¶8. (C) Comment: Mandour Al-Mahdi is the smoothest of the more 
doctrinaire wing of the NCP and glibly presented the regime's 
standard talking points on both the ICC and the NGO 
expulsions. Most interesting (and worrisome) was his analysis 
of how the removal of the offending NGOs could open the door 
to the mass "voluntary returns" of IDPs to their burnt-out 
and abandoned villages and fallow farmlands currently 
 
KHARTOUM 00000326  003 OF 003 
 
 
occupied by heavily armed Arab tribesmen supported by the 
regime. If the regime is serious about using the expected 
services gap created by the NGO expulsion to "solve" the 
problem of about 2 million IDPs sitting in camps, then 
Darfur's problems are just getting started, given unresolved 
issues about ownership, compensation, and grazing rights. It 
is unclear how widely this view is held by the senior reaches 
of the NCP, but dismantling the camps could be explosive and 
any unilateral steps to do so should be monitored closely by 
the international community. End comment. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
FERNANDEZ